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Multiple indicators hint that the U.S. is positioning for possible strikes on Iran, though the absence of visible force buildup suggests action is not imminent. Britain has closed its embassy in Tehran, shipping has shifted offshore, and U.S. missions in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have warned Americans to avoid major military sites. Airlines have adjusted operations, Israel is preparing civil defenses. Iran’s remaining short- and medium-range missile stocks are a key factor shaping U.S. timelines and target planning. Separately, Iran reportedly postponed the execution of activist Erfan Soltani, after Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said executions of protesters were “out of the question,” easing one potential trigger even as U.S. rhetoric in support of protesters continues. And as the uprising enters a new phase, a reported Telegram leak allegedly exposed detailed data on about Iranian 1,250 security-force members. Meanwhile, the U.S. has authorized conditional exports of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, while Beijing signals caution and possible import limits. In the Sahel, jihadists attacked industrial sites in western Mali as a fuel blockade spreads economic strain into Niger. Washington also says Phase Two of its Gaza plan will begin, while it will pause immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Signals point to possible U.S. strike planning against Iran
Several indicators suggest the U.S. may be preparing to strike targets in Iran if Washington judges it necessary. Any operation still appears to be days away.
Britain’s embassy in Tehran has closed, with non-essential staff evacuated.
Maritime activity has also shifted. Numerous oil and cargo vessels have either departed Iranian ports or are waiting offshore, apparently to reduce exposure if port facilities are hit.
U.S. embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar have issued warnings to their personnel and to American citizens, advising them to avoid key regional military installations as tensions with Iran rise.
Airspace restrictions were reported over Pakistan and Iran on Wednesday.
Lufthansa canceled flights to and from Israel on Wednesday and told staff to prepare for possible evacuation. Israeli authorities, meanwhile, have been readying air-defense systems and opening bomb shelters for civilians.
Despite noisy speculation on social media, there has been no clear evidence of a major U.S. force buildup in the Middle East.
But one datapoint stands out: the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72), has been ordered to head towards the Middle East, and was spotted on Wednesday in satellite imagery in the eastern South China Sea, roughly 370 kilometers (230 miles) south of Scarborough Shoal.
That suggests any U.S. strikes on Iran are not imminent and may be at least a week away.
Note that although Israeli attacks during the 12-day war in June 2025 reportedly reduced Iran’s stockpile of long-range ballistic missiles, Iran still appears to retain substantial short- and medium-range arsenals. Those could strain air defenses and inflict serious damage on U.S. assets in the Persian Gulf and, potentially, Iraq.
For that reason, even a limited U.S. strike would likely wait until enough forces are in place to degrade Iran’s short- and medium-range missile capability and to defend against retaliation.
Separately, the scheduled execution of Erfan Soltani, a young activist the authorities had said would be executed on Wednesday, has reportedly been postponed. On Thursday Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said executions of protesters were “out of the question.” President Donald Trump had previously said the U.S. would respond if protesters were executed. For now, Washington is treating the reported postponement of the execution as a small victory for U.S. saber rattling, though operational constraints look like the larger practical driver of delay.
U.S. rhetorical support for protesters has continued. On Tuesday President Trump urged Iranian “patriots” to keep protesting and to document abuses, warning that perpetrators would face consequences.
A large Telegram social media leak has also been reported, exposing the personal information of roughly 1,250 members of the Iranian security forces. The source of the leak remains unclear, and claims about its origin should be treated cautiously.
If the U.S. does strike Iran, it would most likely prioritize short- and medium-range missile units, followed by facilities linked to internal security forces. Oil-export terminals are a possible third target, as a means of intensifying economic pressure on the regime.
But we continue to assess that U.S. strikes remain unlikely before the redeployment of significant U.S. forces to the region, which will be at least another week.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
The Middle East
Birthplace of civilization
U.S. launches phase 2 of Gaza plan after technocrat authority unveiled in Cairo
Following the announcement of a new technocratic administration for Gaza yesterday in Cairo, US special envoy Steve Witkoff announced that Stage 2 of Trump’s Gaza peace plan was about to begin.
In the announcement, Witkoff said the U.S. is launching “Phase Two” of a 20-point plan to end the Gaza war.
The aim is to move beyond a ceasefire toward three things: Gaza’s demilitarization, a temporary technocratic governance setup, and large-scale reconstruction.
Phase Two will seat the transitional, technocratic Palestinian body to run Gaza while starting “full” demilitarization (focused mainly on disarming all unauthorized armed personnel).
Witkoff added that Washington expects Hamas to comply, including by immediately returning the last deceased hostage, and warned that non-compliance will trigger “serious consequences.”
Witkoff also framed Phase One as a success: it kept the ceasefire in place, enabled major humanitarian aid, returned all living hostages, and recovered the remains of 27 out of 28 deceased hostages. Finally, he credited Egypt, Türkiye, and Qatar as essential mediators behind the progress so far.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
U.S. loosens chip curbs as Beijing stays wary
The U.S. has moved to reopen a narrow channel for sales of advanced artificial-intelligence hardware to China, authorizing Nvidia to export its H200 chips under a new set of conditions.
Chinese regulators, however, have signaled that domestic firms should buy the chips only in limited cases.
The shift comes alongside renewed White House optimism about trade access and an espionage case that has highlighted the national-security backdrop to the technology contest.
The Trump administration has approved H200 exports to China subject to restrictions intended to limit military use and to tie China-bound shipments to U.S. demand. The conditions include third-party testing to verify the chips’ capabilities, a cap that would allow Chinese buyers to receive no more than 50% of the units sold to U.S. customers, and a requirement that Nvidia ensure adequate domestic supply.
The approval follows President Donald Trump’s earlier announcement that sales would proceed in exchange for a 25% fee paid to the U.S. government.
Beijing, however, appears to be keeping its guard up. Chinese regulatory guidance would restrict purchases of the H200 to “special circumstances”, such as certain university research, and would instruct firms to buy only when “necessary”, language described as deliberately vague.
The scope and enforcement of the Chinese measures remain unclear, including how they might apply to existing orders.
The policy tug-of-war sits atop a longer campaign by Washington to slow China’s access to frontier computing. Export controls introduced in October 2023 and refined in subsequent updates were designed to limit advanced chips and the equipment used to produce them, amid concern that cutting-edge AI compute can be diverted to military and intelligence purposes. The Trump administration has argued that allowing tightly conditioned sales could blunt the incentive for Chinese champions to accelerate substitutes, though critics say the safeguards will be hard to police once chips are inside China.
Meanwhile, U.S. prosecutors have finalized another espionage case against China. A former U.S. Navy sailor, Jinchao Wei, was sentenced to more than 16 years in prison after being convicted of selling U.S. Navy-related information to Chinese intelligence, according to the U.S. Justice Department.
African Tinderbox
Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies
Industrial attacks and fuel dispute add to Mali’s strain
Gunmen attacked three industrial sites in western Mali over the weekend and kidnapped civilians, in what is a widening campaign by jihadists to squeeze the Malian state by targeting the economy as well as the army.
The assaults hit facilities in the Kayes region, Mali’s western commercial corridor. The area hosts mining and cement operations and links the landlocked country to supply routes via Senegal and Mauritania. Local reporting said assailants abducted workers during the raids, prompting fresh security restrictions in parts of the region.
Blame for the attacks has fallen on the jihadist Group to Support Islam and Muslims (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked coalition that has increasingly paired insurgent attacks with economic disruption.
The attacks come as Mali grapples with a fuel squeeze that began in early September 2025, when JNIM announced a blockade on fuel imports and began targeting tankers and convoys. The disruption has periodically paralyzed transport, worsened electricity shortages, and forced emergency measures, including temporary school closures late last year. The blockade has also raised costs for logistics firms and traders, adding to public frustration in Bamako and other cities already strained by insecurity and a weak economy.
The spillover has now reached Niger, one of Mali’s closest partners among the junta-led Sahel states.
Niger’s transport ministry revoked the licenses of 14 carriers and 19 drivers, and suspended another operator for a year, after they refused to transport fuel to Mali amid the shortages.
Officials portrayed the sanctions as an effort to enforce “legal and regulatory obligations” and keep fuel moving despite heightened risk on the roads, where convoys have faced ambushes and arson attacks.
The security crisis is unfolding against a brittle political backdrop. Mali has been ruled by a military junta since coups in 2020 and 2021 brought General Assimi Goïta to power. In June 2025 Mali’s transitional authorities backed a bill extending Goïta’s mandate for a renewable five-year term starting in 2025, a move critics say entrenches military rule as the insurgency spreads.
Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have also reoriented their regional posture, forming the Alliance of Sahel States and leaving ECOWAS, a break that has deepened their isolation from some West African neighbors even as they promise tighter security cooperation at home.
For Mali’s rulers, the weekend’s industrial raids are a reminder that the insurgency is no longer confined to remote rural zones.
JNIM and the Islamic State’s Sahel branch have expanded their reach in recent years, exploiting weak state presence, local grievances, and the drawdown of Western counterterrorism support.
The immediate question is whether Bamako can secure economic lifelines in the west and keep fuel flowing into the capital, or whether the militants’ blockade strategy will continue to impose costs that outstrip their battlefield gains.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America first
U.S. pauses immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries
The U.S. State Department said on 14 January 2026 that it will pause the issuance of immigrant visas for nationals of 75 countries from 21 January, as it reviews screening rules tied to “public charge” concerns, meaning the risk that an immigrant could rely on U.S. public assistance.
The department said applicants from affected countries can still submit applications and attend interviews, but no immigrant visas will be issued during the pause. It added that the measure does not revoke immigrant visas already issued, and does not apply to tourist visas, which are nonimmigrant visas. Dual nationals applying with a valid passport from a country not on the list are exempt.
Full list of countries affected, as published by the State Department:
Afghanistan
Albania
Algeria
Antigua and Barbuda
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Bahamas
Bangladesh
Barbados
Belarus
Belize
Bhutan
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brazil
Burma
Cambodia
Cameroon
Cape Verde
Colombia
Cote d’Ivoire
Cuba
Democratic Republic of the Congo
Dominica
Egypt
Eritrea
Ethiopia
Fiji
The Gambia
Georgia
Ghana
Grenada
Guatemala
Guinea
Haiti
Iran
Iraq
Jamaica
Jordan
Kazakhstan
Kosovo
Kuwait
Kyrgyz Republic
Laos
Lebanon
Liberia
Libya
Moldova
Mongolia
Montenegro
Morocco
Nepal
Nicaragua
Nigeria
North Macedonia
Pakistan
Republic of the Congo
Russia
Rwanda
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Senegal
Sierra Leone
Somalia
South Sudan
Sudan
Syria
Tanzania
Thailand
Togo
Tunisia
Uganda
Uruguay
Uzbekistan
Yemen
Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief
What happened today:
1777 - Vermont (then an independent republic) declares independence from New York’s claims and the British crown. 1943 - The Pentagon is dedicated, becoming the central headquarters of the U.S. Department of War. 1966 - Coup attempt begins in Nigeria, collapsing the First Republic and triggering a chain of military rule and counter-coups. 1970 - Biafra surrenders, ending the Nigerian Civil War. 1973 - United States halts bombing of North Vietnam, a key step toward the Paris Peace Accords. 1975 - Alvor Agreement signed, setting the terms for Angola’s independence from Portugal. 1991 - UN deadline for Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait expires, clearing the way for force under Security Council Resolution 678. 1992 - European Community states formally recognize Croatia’s independence. 2019 - UK House of Commons rejects Theresa May’s Brexit withdrawal agreement in the first “meaningful vote”. 2020 - U.S. and China sign the “Phase One” trade deal, easing (but not ending) the trade war. 2025 - Israel and Hamas accept a Gaza ceasefire and hostage-release framework (later finalized and implemented in subsequent days)
