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What you need to know

IU.S. carrier nears the Malacca Strait as Iran’s unrest evolves

Open-source ship-tracking data suggest the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln briefly began broadcasting an AIS signal as it approached, and possibly entered, the Malacca Strait on Monday. Such transmissions can be intermittent and do not, by themselves, confirm intent or route. Still, the signal fits broader indications that the carrier strike group is moving west towards the Middle East.

At current transit speeds, the Lincoln remains several days from the northern Indian Ocean and roughly 3–5 days’ sailing time from the edge of the U.S. Central Command area, depending on routing, refueling, and operational pauses. Claims that the ship could be “in strike range” by Thursday, 23 January should be treated as an estimate rather than a firm operational marker. Carrier air wings can project power at long range, but sustained strike operations depend on a wider package: escorts, tankers, basing, and permissions, as well as the carrier’s own posture.

Iran’s crisis, meanwhile, produced two sharply different narratives about the scale of casualties. The Sunday Times reported a new assessment from doctors on the ground, claiming at least 16,500 protesters killed and 330,000 injured. Those figures are considerably higher than other widely cited tallies.  The Iranian NGO, Human Rights Activists News Agency, in their evening update last night confirmed 3,919 deaths while 8,949 additional deaths are under investigation. Iranian officials have admitted 5,000 deaths. The divergence reflects the communications blackout conditions, fragmented reporting, and the challenge of independently verifying nationwide casualty claims during sustained unrest.

The information war is also escalating. Iran’s state broadcaster, IRIB, was reportedly hacked on Monday and briefly aired a message attributed to Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi urging people to join demonstrations and calling on military personnel to defect and side with protesters.

It also appears that the Basij militia headquarters in Tehran was attacked by protestors last night, and set on fire. It thus appears that the protest movement is not completely suppressed, and is developing into a revolutionary movement. We remind our readers that the last Iranian revolution, 1978-1979, built over 13 months before it topped the Shah.

Iran’s internet remains basically non-operational, severely limiting information coming and and out of the country.

Together, the developments point to rising pressure on Tehran at a moment when U.S. force posture in the broader region appears to be shifting. The critical question is whether Washington is simply repositioning assets as a deterrent, or preparing for a more demanding set of contingencies if the crisis in Iran deepens.

Move fast and break things

Tariffs-for-Greenland threat rattles markets

President Donald Trump said the U.S. will impose 10% tariffs from 1 February on imports from Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Finland, linking the move to those countries’ opposition to his push for U.S. control of Greenland. He added that the tariff rate would rise to 25% from 1 June if there is no “deal” on Greenland by then.

In a social-media post, Trump argued that NATO had warned Denmark for “20 years” to “get the Russian threat away from Greenland”, and said, “Now it is time, and it will be done.”

Markets reacted with a defensive tilt. Gold rose and silver briefly topped $94 an ounce before easing. Long-dated Japanese government-bond yields pushed higher, adding to pressure on global rates. Equity-index futures fell and the dollar softened as investors shifted toward the yen and Swiss franc.

Crypto markets slid in tandem with the broader risk-off move. Bitcoin dropped by more than $4,000, while roughly $100bn was wiped from total crypto-market capitalization over about 12 hours, reinforcing the pattern that crypto tends to trade with risk assets rather than serving as a reliable hedge against inflation.

Birthplace of civilization

Damascus and the SDF strike a ceasefire

On Monday, 19 January 2026, a ceasefire was signed between the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led coalition controlling a large autonomous zone in north-eastern Syria, and the Syrian government in Damascus.

The deal is presented as a 14-point agreement. Its main provisions include an immediate halt to fighting; the rapid transfer of administrative control in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor provinces to Damascus; the integration of civilian institutions in Hasakah province into the Syrian state; and central government control over border crossings, as well as oil and gas facilities. The agreement also envisages SDF fighters being absorbed into the Ministry of Defense on an individual basis, the provision of a list of former regime fighters present in SDF-held areas, and a withdrawal from the city of Kobani (Ain al-Arab) alongside the creation of a local security force affiliated with the Ministry of Interior. It adds that personnel overseeing Islamic State detention facilities will be folded into state structures, and that non-Syrian members, including those linked to the Turkish-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) classified as terrorists by the U.S. and Europe, are to be expelled.

The announcement followed a meeting on Sunday, 18 January 2026, in Erbil, in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region, where Kurdistan Democratic Party leader Masoud Barzani met President Donald Trump’s special envoy for Syria, Ambassador Tom Barrack, and SDF commander Mazloum Abdi. Syrian Kurdish National Council leader (allied with Barzani) Muhammad Ismail also attended.

The meeting came as pressure mounted from Damascus and Türkiye for the SDF to join the Syrian army without a political decentralization arrangement. In fighting between Damascus-backed forces and the SDF, reports describe an erosion of the SDF’s position in predominantly Arab areas, including alleged defections by several Arab officials, among them the northeast’s chief negotiator.

Some of the most consequential tribal backing for Damascus has reportedly come from Shammar tribal chief Manaa Hamidi al-Jarba, widely seen as one of the SDF’s closest Arab allies. The Shammar also field their own armed formation, the Sanadid Forces, and hold sway over parts of northern Hasakah province near core Kurdish areas.

Separately, the Syrian Petroleum Company said government forces seized several oil and gas sites in Deir Ezzor province, including al-Omar, al-Tank, Koniko, and al-Jafra, after SDF units withdrew amid overnight advances by tribal forces. 

Overall, the SDF has lost almost all of the land controlled by its Arab allies, which amounts to about 40% of the territory it previously held. 

For Damascus, it amounts to a significant victory, the question is whether it will hold.

Hamas given two months to demilitarize Gaza as peace board is announced

After a governance council for Gaza was formed last week in Cairo, Hamas has been given two months to demilitarize the enclave, or Israel says it will use force to do so. The Israel Defense Forces are drawing up plans. Israeli media reports that President Donald Trump supports Israel’s demand, though the White House has not commented publicly.

The White House also announced on Friday the membership of the Executive Board for the Board of Peace for Gaza, an international body intended to oversee a new Palestinian technocratic administration, as well as Gaza’s reconstruction and demilitarization.

The Executive Board includes:

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Former White House advisor Jared Kushner
U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff
Former British prime minister Tony Blair
Apollo chief executive Marc Rowan
World Bank president Ajay Banga
U.S. national-security advisor Robert Gabriel

The Executive Board is meant to operate under the Board of Peace, which will be chaired by Trump and include heads of state and government. The Executive Board would sit above the Palestinian technocratic administration.

Former United Nations envoy Nickolay Mladenov will serve as the Board of Peace’s high representative for Gaza.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the announcement was not coordinated with Israel and ran counter to its policy. Netanyahu instructed Israel’s foreign minister to raise the matter with Rubio.

Iraq close to choosing a Prime Minister

The main Shia electoral bloc is meeting today in Baghdad to finalize their choice for Prime Minister. The current Prime Minister, Mohammad Shia Sudani, has stepped aside and said he will support the candidature of two-times former Prime Minister Nuri Al Maliki. Today their political bloc will announce whether they support this decision and will officially nominate Maliki. 

The next step of the political process for forming the government will be the selection of a President (a largely symbolic position). The position is normally given to the Kurds, but they have not agreed on their candidate yet. There will be no official vote on the position of Prime Minister until the President is chosen by Parliament, so the process of forming the government is still not quite complete. But the selection of a Prime Minister by the largest parliamentary bloc will be an important step forward.

At the top of the agenda for the new government will be disarming the militias which were formed to fight the Islamic State in 2014. This is a key U.S. demand. The new government will also have to manage the potential fallout from the protest movement in Iran and any potential strikes on Iran by the U.S. and Israel, while balancing its budget as oil prices (oil provides 90% of Iraq’s government budget), continue to linger in the $50 price range (Iraq needs oil prices to be over $70 to balance its budget).

Iraq has made great security and economic advances in the past few years, but it still faces enormous challenges, not least economic because of its dependence on oil revenue. We have all seen the consequences that a destabilized Iraq brings to the region, and its in the interests of the U.S., the international community, and the regional powers that a smooth transition of power occurs in Iraq, which is one of the few democracies in the Middle East.

Snap election gamble for Japan’s new prime minister

Japan’s prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, said she will dissolve the House of Representatives on Friday, 23 January, and call an early general election for 8 February, asking voters to deliver a clearer mandate for her economic and security agenda. The vote will decide all 465 seats in the lower house, the chamber that determines who governs.

Takaichi, who took office in October, is framing the election as a referendum on her plans to lift growth and ease household pressure while pushing a faster defense buildup.

Politically, the timing reflects both opportunity and risk. Takaichi is seeking to capitalize on relatively strong approval ratings, but the campaign will also test public patience with rising living costs, and expose a governing arrangement that is being treated as narrow and potentially unstable.

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