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Japan’s conservatives win a mandate and a supermajority

On Sunday conservative Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a landslide, with the Liberal Democratic Party winning 316 of 465 seats in the House of Representatives. The scale of the victory is hard to overstate.

With its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, the ruling bloc now controls 352 seats. That gives it a commanding grip on the lower house’s agenda and, in some circumstances, the ability to override the upper chamber. For Takaichi, who called a snap election only months into office, the result reads as a broad endorsement of her program, which mixes tax relief and stimulus with a tougher posture on national security.

The numbers also revive a question that has long hovered over Japanese politics: whether to revise the postwar constitution’s pacifist constraints, especially Article 9.

The election also carried an ideological undercurrent. Sanseitō, a far-right, anti-immigration populist party, made notable gains, winning 13 seats, up from two in the previous lower house. Its numbers remain modest, but they are striking in a political system that has typically kept such movements at the margins.

The greater risk for Japan’s centrists may be less what Sanseitō can block, and more what its themes could draw into the mainstream, particularly on immigration, identity, and defense.

Birthplace of civilization

Trump touts Oman talks as U.S. pressure campaign continues to expand

President Donald Trump said on Friday that the U.S. and Iran had “very good talks” in Oman and claimed Tehran’s position on a nuclear deal is now more favorable than it was before the 12-day war in June.

Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said a change of venue for the second round is possible. He said Iran would not export highly enriched uranium, but could discuss enrichment levels.

Araghchi also drew a distinction between U.S. bases and regional states, saying Iran would retaliate against U.S. bases if attacked, rather than against neighboring countries.

In parallel, a new Trump executive order describes the situation with Iran as a national emergency, citing the International Emergency Economic Powers Act as a basis for tariffs. The order also frames the U.S. military posture in the region as a means of pressing Iran to accept what it calls a “fair” and “equitable” deal.

Open-source researchers say another Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system may have been deployed to Jordan. By those accounts, there are two systems in Israel, one in Jordan, and three in the Gulf. The U.S. operates seven THAAD batteries in total, which would leave only one outside the region if the claims are accurate. No public statement by the U.S. military has confirmed the deployment. Separate open-source tracking claims that roughly half of U.S. C-17 transport aircraft are now involved in moving equipment into the U.S. Central Command area of operations.

Separately, India’s Coast Guard says it intercepted three tankers on 5–6 February about 185 km (115 miles), or roughly 100 nautical miles, west of Mumbai as part of an investigation into an alleged oil-smuggling network. Indian and international media reports have linked the vessels to Iran and to U.S. sanctions, though India’s public statements, as relayed by those reports, have emphasized suspected smuggling and a “syndicate” rather than the tankers’ nationality.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Russia intensifies strikes on Ukraine’s power grid

Russia launched a wave of drone and missile attacks against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, with Ukraine reporting more than 400 drones and over 40 missiles. President Volodymyr Zelensky said that “one of the units at our nuclear power plant was automatically shut down today” and that the remaining units had reduced generation.

Officials in Lviv said the city was left without electricity.

According to Ukrainian authorities, Russia struck the “West Ukrainian 750” facility, described as Europe’s largest electrical substation, which serves the western region and handles power imports from abroad.

In the Odesa region, officials said outages had reached critical levels, with as much as 60% of households and businesses without power at the same time. They said blackouts were lasting longer after strikes on substations.

Russia also reported disruptions overnight. Several southern regions said they were hit by drones and missiles, with power cuts reported in multiple areas. In Belgorod, residents reported explosions. Local reports said a strike on the Luch thermal power plant cut electricity across the city and nearby villages.

Ukraine, for its part, said its long-range drones struck the Redkino chemical plant in Russia’s Tver region this morning, about 139 km (86 miles) northwest of Moscow. Ukrainian accounts said the site produces specialized chemicals, including fuel additives and reagents used by Russia’s aviation, aerospace, and missile sectors.

Sabotage as Italy hosts the Winter Olympics

Italian police are investigating what officials have described as a coordinated series of attacks on the rail network in the north and along the Adriatic corridor, after cables were cut, signaling equipment was damaged, and a crude explosive device was reported near Bologna, in the area of Castel Maggiore.

Disruptions affected services on routes linking Bologna with Venice and onward to Padua, and also toward Ancona and Rimini. Another incident was reported near Pesaro, where a track-switch cabin was set on fire, according to officials and local media.

The timing has heightened concern because Italy is staging the Milan–Cortina Winter Olympics, with venues spread between Milan and Cortina d’Ampezzo and heavy reliance on rail links for spectators and logistics. Authorities have said they are examining whether the incidents were intended to disrupt the Games, while noting that responsibility remains unclear.

The attacks come amid a broader security alert around the Olympics. On 4 February, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said Italy had foiled cyberattacks he described as Russia-linked, targeting foreign-ministry facilities and Olympic-related websites, including hotel sites associated with Cortina.

Espionage allegations widen as France and Greece detain suspects

Prosecutors in Paris have opened a judicial investigation into allegations that two Chinese nationals, along with two other suspects, sought to obtain sensitive French government and military data by intercepting satellite communications, including traffic linked to Starlink, according to a statement from the Paris public prosecutor’s office. Two suspects were remanded in custody, while the others were placed under judicial supervision.

The inquiry appears to have begun after the suspects attracted attention in southwestern France, where investigators believe they carried out satellite-interception activity from an Airbnb they had rented near Bordeaux. Neighbors reported the installation of a satellite dish roughly 2 meters (6.6 ft) in diameter, and local residents complained of internet outages around the same time, according to media reports summarizing the prosecutor’s findings.

A separate case in Greece has added to the unease among European security services. On 5 February, Greek defense authorities said they had arrested a member of the armed forces on suspicion of leaking classified information to third parties. Greek media and officials have described the suspect as an air force officer who allegedly passed classified material, including NATO-related information, to China.

The two cases are not publicly linked, but they point to a broader challenge for European governments: modern espionage often combines traditional human recruitment with technically sophisticated efforts aimed at communications infrastructure, satellite links, and defense supply chains. In the French case, investigators say the suspected intent was to capture and transmit high-value data, though officials have not publicly described what, if anything, was obtained.

Tariff rollback on India shows how the U.S. is policing Russia’s oil revenues

On Saturday, President Donald Trump signed an executive order adjusting tariffs in response to national-security risks linked to the government of the Russian Federation. The order unwinds a previously imposed, across-the-board additional 25% import duty on Indian goods, which had been justified as pressure over India’s purchases of Russian oil.

The order terminates specific Chapter 99 Harmonized Tariff Schedule headings (9903.01.84 through 9903.01.89) and a related U.S. Note used to apply the extra duty. In practice, U.S. Customs and Border Protection should stop assessing the additional 25% once the effective time is reached.

The order directs the Department of Commerce to monitor whether India resumes “directly or indirectly importing” Russian oil, using the earlier order’s definitions. If Commerce concludes that India has resumed, the Department of State is to recommend whether to reimpose the 25% duty, and how broadly.

The order rests on a simple premise: the national emergency linked to Russia’s actions in Ukraine continues, but India has taken steps that, in the White House’s view, justify lifting the additional duty.

The order cites three commitments by India: to stop directly or indirectly importing Russian oil; to purchase U.S. energy products; and to enter a framework with the U.S. to expand defense cooperation over the next 10 years.

The trade measure is therefore being used as leverage within a wider bargain that mixes energy, defense ties, and Russia-related pressure.

Removing a 25% ad valorem duty greatly lowers landed costs for Indian-origin goods, especially in low-margin categories such as consumer products, components, and textiles.

Although the order is framed as responding to threats linked to the Russian government, the operational focus is a third country’s trade behavior, specifically purchases of Russian oil “directly or indirectly”. That places tariffs in a role often associated with secondary sanctions, and shows how quickly such pressure can be tightened or relaxed through executive action.

The rollback amounts to an inducement: tariff relief in exchange for commitments on energy and defense cooperation. It also gives Washington a monitoring lever that can be used in future negotiations if Commerce concludes that Russian-oil imports have resumed.

The direct impact on Russia depends on whether India’s shift away from Russian crude proves genuine and durable. The earlier order’s definition of “indirectly importing” aims to narrow common workarounds by covering intermediaries and third countries where origin can reasonably be traced back to Russia.

If India meaningfully reduces Russian intake and substitutes other supply, including U.S. energy, the change could add incremental pressure on Russian oil revenues. The scale would depend on volumes and how global trade flows re-route.

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