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What you need to know

White House plans Board of Peace fundraiser for Gaza

The White House is planning a meeting on 19 February in Washington, D.C., for the Board of Peace, which would also serve as a donor conference for Gaza’s reconstruction. The gathering will be held at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

The meeting is expected to bring together leaders who have accepted invitations to join the board, alongside an executive committee intended to oversee governance, security, and redevelopment arrangements for Gaza. The board was launched in late January and is chaired by President Donald Trump, who has described it as a vehicle for resolving conflicts beyond Gaza.

The picture on attendance remains unclear. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said he will attend. Apparently invitations were sent to 26 countries. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will attend, which may cause some consternation in Israel considering the Israeli government’s opposition to Turkish involvement in post-war Gaza. The date coincides with the start of Ramadan, which could affect travel for some leaders, and doubts still remain over whether Hamas will disarm and whether Israel would accept further withdrawals or a durable postwar governance arrangement.

The agenda is likely to be about legitimacy as well as money. Permanent membership is priced at $1 billion, and that the initiative has drawn criticism from rights experts who argue it resembles a colonial-style arrangement and lacks Palestinian representation.

The administration has tied the board to an international mandate, citing a United Nations Security Council resolution from mid-November that it says authorized the board and partners to establish an international stabilization force for Gaza. A separate White House statement casts the board as an overseer of governance and reconstruction, and names High Representative for Gaza Nickolay Mladenov, who would liaise with the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza.

Birthplace of civilization

Iran hardens Isfahan nuke site as talks narrow

Iran appears to be hardening the Isfahan nuclear complex. New satellite imagery shows several access points to an underground tunnel network being backfilled or blocked. The Institute for Science and International Security said imagery from 24 January and 29 January 2026 showed fresh soil and earthmoving equipment at tunnel entrances, and that at least one entrance appeared fully obstructed by 29 January.

The tunnel complex is associated with the storage and protection of sensitive nuclear assets, potentially including part of Iran’s enriched-uranium stockpile, though the precise contents and configuration cannot be publicly verified. The work is therefore being interpreted as contingency engineering amid mounting fears of renewed military action, including the possibility of a U.S. strike.

Separately, Mohammad Eslami, head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, said yesterday that Tehran could agree to dilute its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% in exchange for full sanctions relief. He added that transferring uranium out of Iran has not been discussed in the talks and would not be considered. Those concessions are unlikely to satisfy U.S. and Israeli demands.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected in Washington tomorrow and will push for a hardline position against Iran and its nuclear and missile programs.

Iraq moves ISIS detainees from Syria

The official Iraqi Security Media Cell says Iraq has received 4,583 ISIS prisoners transferred from detention facilities in northeast Syria, as part of a broader relocation effort coordinated with U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM). The operation aims to move up to 7,000 detainees from Syria to more secure facilities inside Iraq.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

NATO’s command shuffle

The U.S. is preparing to hand over leadership of two major NATO operational headquarters, Joint Force Command Naples and Joint Force Command Norfolk, to European allies, while keeping control of key component commands such as Allied Air Command, Allied Maritime Command, and Allied Land Command.

A NATO official has said allies have agreed on a new distribution of senior officer responsibilities across the NATO Command Structure and described it as planning for future rotations, although the fine print, including timelines and named successors, is still taking shape and could take months to put into effect.

Separately, the U.S. also plans to cut roughly 200 billets across parts of NATO’s command and intelligence structures, largely by letting posts lapse as tours end rather than through a sudden pullout.

Taken together, the changes look like a recalibration: more European ownership of some headline roles, with Washington still holding major operational levers, including the alliance’s top military post, Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

Taiwan weighs forward-basing HIMARS on outlying islands

Taiwan is considering, or at least drawing up plans for, a forward deployment of U.S.-made M142 HIMARS rocket artillery to two outlying island groups (Penghu and Dongyin). The aim would be to move mobile, precision strike systems closer to the western reaches of the Taiwan Strait, raising the risks for coastal military sites on the Chinese mainland in the early stages of a conflict.

The reports say the launchers would be paired with ATACMS missiles, extending strike ranges to roughly 300 km (186 miles). The U.S. has already notified Congress of a possible sale that includes additional HIMARS launchers and hundreds of ATACMS missiles, reinforcing the direction of Taiwan's long-range fires program.

Penghu is about 50 km (31 miles) west of Taiwan's main island. Dongyin is much closer to China; the local government places it about 30.5 km (19 miles) from the Min River estuary in Fujian.

Taiwan's defense authorities have not publicly issued a clear confirmation of specific basing decisions. Even if the plan proceeds, the operational problem will be survivability, because forward-deployed launchers would be among the People's Liberation Army's earliest targets in the event of conflict.

China presses banks to curb buying of U.S. Treasuries

China’s government has urged some of the country’s biggest banks to limit purchases of U.S. government bonds and asked institutions with large exposures to pare back their positions. The instruction was framed as risk diversification amid market volatility, rather than as a judgment on U.S. creditworthiness. The reported guidance does not apply to China’s official state holdings of U.S. Treasuries.

If the advice is followed, it could trim one source of marginal demand for Treasuries at a moment when Washington is relying on steady absorption of heavy issuance. Last week, the U.S. Department of the Treasury kept auction sizes unchanged for several quarters and outlined a $125bn refunding program for February–April 2026, even as dealers and the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee pointed to a larger funding gap further out. A shift in buying patterns at large Chinese banks matters less than it once did, but it adds another variable to a market already grappling with balance-sheet capacity, funding costs, and liquidity under stress.

Beijing’s caution also fits a wider drift toward diversification. The People’s Bank of China has been adding to gold reserves for more than a year, extending purchases to a 15th consecutive month as of January 2026. Many investors read that as an attempt to reduce exposure to financial coercion, even as the dollar remains dominant in global invoicing and finance. Survey evidence also suggests that many central banks expect their gold holdings to rise over the coming year.

Other major holders, however, are not moving in unison. Foreign holdings of Treasuries reached a record level in late 2025, with Japan still the largest non-U.S. holder and increasing its stock for 11 straight months to $1.202trn in November. Saudi Arabia has also been adding, lifting holdings to about $148.8bn in November. Even if Chinese banks step back, there is no single, coordinated rush for the exits; demand is being reallocated rather than evaporating.

The more important question is why Beijing is leaning on banks now. One explanation is straightforward portfolio caution: after a long stretch of rate volatility, duration risk has become harder to tolerate, particularly for lenders managing capital and liquidity constraints. Another is macro-management. Chinese authorities often use state-linked financial institutions to steady markets, including the exchange rate, without turning every adjustment into a formal policy move. In that reading, nudging banks away from Treasuries may have less to do with geopolitics than with managing domestic financial conditions while China recalibrates its bond market and reserve mix.

Investors will look for confirmation in official data, including future Treasury International Capital releases, any follow-on guidance from regulators, and whether the reported advice spreads beyond a handful of large banks. A small, quiet change in bank demand is unlikely to move the Treasury market on its own, but it could contribute to choppier trading if heavy issuance collides with fragile market plumbing.

Move fast and break things

GOP revises SAVE America Act after backlash over Election Day checks

House Republicans have rewritten the latest version of the SAVE America Act, removing language that would have required voters to present documentary proof of U.S. citizenship at the polling place on Election Day.

The revised bill still tightens the registration process by requiring documentary proof of citizenship when registering to vote in federal elections. Instead of demanding citizenship documents at the ballot box, the new text establishes a federal photo-identification requirement for voting in federal elections.

The bill lists acceptable photo IDs as state-issued driver’s licenses and state ID cards, a U.S. passport, military ID, and qualifying tribal IDs, along with other government-issued IDs that a state may specify. It also bars the use of photo ID cards issued by an educational institution.

The House Rules Committee is scheduled to consider the measure today, 10 February. A floor vote is expected on 12 February.

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