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Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has begun a major naval drill in the Strait of Hormuz dubbed “Smart Control”, described by Iranian media as a test of security plans and the capacity for “counter-military action” in response to threats. It comes as diplomacy resumes: Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he held detailed technical talks with Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, ahead of “important negotiations” in Geneva tomorrow. A new round of U.S.-Iran talks is expected on Tuesday, 17 February. Open-source flight tracking has also noted U.S. air movements linked to a wider buildup, including F-35 transits via RAF Lakenheath with refueling support. Separately, Iran’s diaspora staged large rallies. German police estimated 250,000 people gathered in Munich on 14 February, featuring Reza Pahlavi and prominent regime-change symbolism; other demonstrations were reported in multiple cities around the world. DHS is in partial shutdown after Congress failed to fund it amid the ICE oversight dispute; OMB has ordered steps; many staff will operate unpaid, although functions will continue and travel will likely be affected. In Ukraine, fighting intensified around Pokrovsk amid competing claims on territory, drone interceptions, and strikes on both Russia and Ukraine affecting energy and infrastructure. Finally, the U.S. loosened Venezuela oil sanctions, issuing licenses to allow major firms to operate and negotiate new investments with PDVSA, while channeling royalties and taxes through a U.S.-controlled deposit fund to retain leverage. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
IRGC launches “Smart Control” drill in Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-Iran talks resume
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has launched a large-scale naval exercise in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian media reported, describing the drill as a test of the IRGC Navy’s security plans and its ability to carry out what it called “counter-military action” in response to potential threats in the waterway. The exercise, named “Smart Control of the Strait of Hormuz,” is being conducted under the direct supervision of Major General Mohammad Pakpour, the IRGC’s commander-in-chief.
The announcement comes as Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said he had completed “in-depth technical discussions” with Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister, in preparation for “important negotiations” scheduled for Tuesday in Geneva. This comes ahead of a new round of U.S.-Iran talks expected on Tuesday, 17 February.
Separately, open-source flight-tracking has pointed to continued U.S. air movements linked to the wider military buildup around the talks. At least seven U.S. Air Force F-35s have recently routed via RAF Lakenheath as part of deployments toward the Middle East, accompanied by aerial-refueling tankers, according to specialist defense-aviation outlets. These specific counts have not been independently confirmed in official reporting.
Iranian diaspora rallies draw huge crowds in Munich and beyond
German police said roughly 250,000 people rallied on 14 February at Munich’s Theresienwiese in what organizers billed as a “Global Day of Action” by the Iranian diaspora.
The gathering, timed to coincide with the Munich Security Conference, featured Reza Pahlavi (the exiled son of Iran’s last shah) calling on foreign governments to increase pressure on the Islamic Republic and presenting himself as a focal point for a post-regime transition.
Many attendees waved Iran’s pre-1979 lion-and-sun flag and chanted for regime change, while international media described the turnout as among the largest Iranian-diaspora mobilizations in many years.
Elsewhere that weekend, demonstrations were reported in other cities, although crowd estimates varied and were often imprecise.
In Toronto, some Canadian outlets described the turnout as in the “hundreds of thousands”, with some estimates around 350,000.
In Los Angeles, local television described “thousands”, although other reports suggested far larger numbers.
In Sydney, Australia’s ABC reported “tens of thousands”.
In Berlin, at a separate rally the previous week, police estimated about 8,000 participants, while organizers claimed far more.
Reports also cited gatherings in London, Washington, Tel Aviv, and Lisbon, though there are no verifiable headcounts available at this time.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks, or whether another round of conflict will occur between the US, Israel, Iran, and their respective allies. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. and allied responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
DHS funding lapse triggers partial shutdown as Congress leaves town
A standoff over oversight of Immigration and Customs Enforcement has pushed the Department of Homeland Security into a partial shutdown, after lawmakers failed to clear a funding measure before the weekend and then left Washington for a recess due to end on 23 February.
The White House Office of Management and Budget directed DHS on 13 February to carry out an orderly shutdown plan while talks continue.
In the absence of a deal, many DHS employees are working without pay, while essential national-security and border functions continue. Disruptions are likely to be uneven, with travel-related agencies and some security operations among those most exposed to staffing strain.
The Trump Administration argued, over the weekend, that Democratic demands in Congress would limit ICE’s ability to enforce immigration law.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
U.S. loosens Venezuela oil sanctions
The U.S. has eased sanctions on Venezuela’s energy sector, issuing new general licenses that allow major international oil companies to operate in the country and to negotiate fresh investment arrangements with the state oil firm, PDVSA.
One license authorizes specified companies’ oil-and-gas operations; another permits the negotiation and signing of “contingent” contracts for certain new investments, while making clear that performing those contracts still requires separate authorization from the U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC).
The shift amounts to the broadest sanctions relief for Venezuela’s oil industry in years and is designed to preserve U.S. leverage over cash flow.
Under the authorization for operations, royalty and tax payments must be routed through a U.S.-controlled Foreign Government Deposit Fund, tightening oversight and control even as commercial activity expands.
Cold War 2.0
It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side
Ukraine war frontline and ground situation
In the Donetsk region, Russia’s defense ministry claimed its forces captured two settlements, Pokrovka and Minkivka, in eastern Ukraine. These claims could not be independently verified.
In the Pokrovsk area, Ukraine’s General Staff reported 235 combat engagements over the past day, with the heaviest fighting in the Pokrovsk sector.
Along the Sumy-Kursk border area, Russian attacks were reported in Sumy and Kursk oblasts, including activity northwest and north of Sumy City, as well as in the cross-border area.
Russia’s defense ministry said it downed 345 Ukrainian drones over a 24-hour period.
In Krasnodar Krai near the Black Sea, including the Taman port area, a Ukrainian drone strike sparked fires and damaged facilities, including oil-storage-related infrastructure, with injuries reported locally.
In a countrywide overnight attack reported on 16 February, The Kyiv Independent said Russia struck Ukraine with a mix that included Zirkon hypersonic missiles, an Iskander-M ballistic missile, a Kh-31 missile, and drones. It also reported injuries in multiple regions, citing Ukrainian local authorities.
In the Odesa region, there was damage to infrastructure from debris after Russian drone activity, disrupting local services.
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What happened today:
1804 - U.S. raiding party under Stephen Decatur burns the captured USS Philadelphia in Tripoli Harbor. 1815 - U.S. Senate approves the Treaty of Ghent, ending the War of 1812. 1900 - Tripartite Convention on Samoa takes effect, formalizing U.S. control of eastern Samoa (American Samoa). 1936 - Spain holds the general election that brings the Popular Front to power. 1943 - Operation Gunnerside begins, the mission that leads to sabotage of Germany’s heavy-water (Atomic) effort in Norway. 1959 - Fidel Castro becomes premier of Cuba. 1979 - Iran’s revolutionary tribunals carry out early executions of senior figures from the Shah’s regime. 2001 - U.S. and U.K. aircraft strike Iraqi air-defense and command sites near Baghdad. 2005 - The Kyoto Climate Protocol enters into force. 2024 - Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny dies in a penal colony.
