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What you need to know

U.S. airpower flows east as talks with Iran continue

As U.S. and Iranian diplomats meet today in Geneva under Omani mediation, the U.S. military buildup continues.

Six U.S. Air Force KC-135R/T Stratotankers departed the U.K. to support the movement of 18 U.S. Air Force F-35A Lightning II fighters from the 48th Fighter Wing at RAF Lakenheath across Europe toward the Middle East.

Those 18 F-35As are set to join 12 F-35As from the Vermont Air National Guard that arrived last week at Muwaffaq Al Salti Air Base in Jordan, bringing the reported total to 30 F-35As in the area of responsibility.

Overnight and into this morning, further enablers for Middle East operations also appeared to be moving into position. Two E-3B/C Sentry airborne early warning and control aircraft departed Elmendorf Air Force Base in Alaska, heading east, with RAF Mildenhall described as their destination.

The deployment would add to other U.S. combat aircraft in theater, including 24 F-15s, 12 F-16s, and 12 A-10s, expanding the options available to the U.S. president if Washington chooses to escalate against Iran.

In open reporting, what has not appeared is a parallel move of heavy bombers, additional combat search-and-rescue assets, or more special-operations aircraft, yet.

Birthplace of civilization

Lebanon’s army sets an eight-month horizon for disarmament north of the Litani

Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces General Rodolphe Haykal has told ministers that the next phase of collecting illegal weapons north of the Litani River could take four to eight months, a reminder of how politically fraught and operationally complex the effort will be.

The timeline emerged as the government prepared for a Cabinet session yesterday to discuss the next phase of the state’s push for a “monopoly” on arms, after the army said in January that it had taken operational control of the area between the Litani and the border with Israel.

President of the Republic General Joseph Aoun, speaking at the Munich Security Conference, said Lebanon could no longer carry “the conflicts of anyone” and wanted to focus on the welfare of its own people and the future of its children. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier said regional stability depended on implementing the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire, and reiterated Berlin’s opposition to any permanent occupation of Lebanese territory.

A separate political storm has centered on comments attributed to Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar, who was portrayed online as saying he personally ensures that no one suspected of violating Lebanon’s laws governing contact with Israelis is summoned for questioning. Local reporting described the claim as a contested paraphrase of a television interview that was amplified by partisans; Nassar later clarified that he was referring to curbing abuses of the “collaboration” framework used to intimidate individuals, not to halting enforcement where credible violations are alleged. Nonetheless, Lebanese media outlets have in recent months begun conducting interviews with Israeli officials and civilians, something which appears to be in clear contravention of Lebanese law.

Iraq publishes nationality list of ISIS detainees moved from Syria

Iraq’s Ministry of Justice has released a nationality breakdown of 5,704 Islamic State (ISIS) detainees transferred from prisons in northeast Syria into Iraqi custody, an unusually detailed disclosure that highlights how international the detention problem has been since the end of the ISIS war in 2019. The largest cohort is Syrian (3,544), followed by Iraqis (460). Other notable nationalities listed include Tunisians (234), Moroccans (187), Turks (181), Chinese (170), Germans (28), Australians (13), Britons (10), Dutch (9), Belgians (8), Canadians (5), French (4) and Americans (2).

The transfer reflects a dilemma left by ISIS’s territorial defeat in 2019: thousands of suspected fighters have been held for years by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), backed by the U.S.-led Global Coalition against ISIS, while many governments have been reluctant to repatriate their nationals for prosecution or rehabilitation.

In January, the U.S. military began an operation to relocate up to 7,000 detainees from SDF-run facilities in Syria to Iraq, citing a worsening security environment and the risk of prison breaks as control arrangements in parts of Syria shifted and fighting intensified. Iraqi officials have presented the move as a security measure. Reporting on the operation says detainees were moved under U.S. military escort into Iraqi facilities for investigation and trial.

Baghdad has also indicated that it wants countries of origin to assume responsibility for their citizens now in Iraqi custody, particularly where suspects come from coalition states that helped defeat ISIS militarily but have resisted domestic repatriations.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Ukraine military situation: southern-front momentum

Open-source mapping tracked by the Institute for the Study of War suggests that Ukraine has conducted widespread localized counterattacks on the southern front, including along river lines near the Huliaipole axis, recapturing ground after months of relative stagnation.

Starlink satellite terminals used by Russian forces were deactivated earlier this month, disrupting battlefield communications. Reporting on social media has described Ukrainian cyber units exploiting Russian attempts to regain Starlink access by collecting device and location data through bogus “registration” channels - enabling enhanced Ukrainian targeting of Russian units attempting to regain access to Starlink.

But the fighting is not all going in Ukraine’s favor. Fighting on the ground around Pokrovsk and neighboring Myrnohrad appears to be reaching a critical phase, with open-source Ukrainian analysts reporting extensive Russian advances inside both towns and along their northern and western approaches. Ukrainian officials and Ukrainian open-source researchers described the battle as the “last battles” for Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad, while noting that Ukraine still contests small parts of the area.

Recent mapping-based reporting from the authoritative social media account DeepState says Russian forces have pushed further in Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, and Rodynske, and that Rivne has been reported as occupied, tightening pressure on Ukrainian positions and prompting withdrawals from exposed pockets.

The emerging picture is a staged squeeze: Russian troops advanced from the east and north, including via Rodynske, to limit Ukrainian movement, then increased pressure westward around Myrnohrad’s outskirts, while concentrating forces to intensify assaults toward Hryshyne. The Institute for the Study of War has also tracked sustained Russian attacks in and around Pokrovsk, including from the Rodynske area toward Bilytske and in the direction of Hryshyne.

Russian authorities and pro-war monitoring channels reported a large-scale Ukrainian drone barrage overnight, claiming that roughly 200 drones targeted western and southwestern regions of Russia as well as Crimea. Russia also temporarily closed the Kerch Bridge, which links the Russian mainland to Crimea, for much of the night amid reports of a large drone wave. Russian authorities periodically suspend traffic on the bridge during perceived air or maritime threats, and no official statement immediately detailed the scale of damage, if any. Open-source monitoring channels reported numerous drones attacking from the direction of Melitopol and crossing the Sea of Azov toward the bridge corridor. Ukraine has also expanded its drone campaign into Russia’s Krasnodar region, with air-raid warnings and reported explosions along the Black Sea coast through the night, including in the Anapa and Gelendzhik areas. Some local reports and alerts described drones approaching over the Black Sea and passing south of Crimea.

Croatia’s oil gate adds to Russia’s wartime squeeze

Croatia says it will not serve as a workaround for Hungary and Slovakia after supplies through the Druzhba route via Ukraine were interrupted on 27 January, following what Kyiv said was a Russian strike on Ukrainian infrastructure.

The timing is awkward for the Kremlin. Russia’s seaborne crude exports have weakened sharply: they fell from about 3.8m barrels a day in December to around 3.4m in January, and are tracking roughly 2.8m in February. Storage tanks are reaching capacity, raising the risk of major production cuts from March onwards, if Russia cannot export its crude.

China is absorbing more discounted Russian crude, with trackers projecting February imports at about 2.07–2.08m barrels a day, even as India’s intake has fallen to a two-year low, around 1.16m barrels a day in February, amid tighter sanctions risk and trade politics.

On 13 February Russia’s central bank cut its key rate by 50 basis points to 15.5%, implying scope for further easing as growth slows. Annual inflation is at about 6.5%, pushed up by a VAT increase, with the central bank forecasting 2026 inflation of 4.5%–5.5%.

Russia’s January budget showed a sharp hit to energy income: oil-and-gas revenues fell about 50% year on year to roughly 393bn rubles ($5.12bn), according to figures cited in reporting on the Finance Ministry’s preliminary estimates, using XE’s mid-market rate on 16 February (1 ruble = $0.0130267). There is a strong possibility that Russia’s 2026 budget deficit could come in far above the official target if oil discounts widen and volumes fall, while wartime expenditures remain elevated.

Planned 2026 “national defense” spending is now estimated by major media outlets at about 13trn rubles ($169.35bn), with a large share classified, while combined defense-and-security spending was described as roughly 38% of total budget expenditure, using the same XE rate.

Australia moves to fund AUKUS submarine yard in South Australia

Australia said on 15 February that it would spend A$3.9bn (US$2.76bn) on early construction work for a nuclear-submarine shipyard at Osborne, near Adelaide. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese described the money as a down payment on a much larger effort, with the overall shipyard expected to cost about A$30bn (US$21.2bn) over coming decades.

The site is central to AUKUS, the security partnership Australia formed with the U.S. and Britain in 2021 to strengthen deterrence in the Indo-Pacific and, in Australia’s case, to shift from diesel-electric Collins-class submarines to nuclear-powered boats. Under the plan, U.S. and British submarines are expected to rotate through Australia more regularly later in the 2020s, before Canberra buys several U.S. Virginia-class submarines in the early 2030s and then co-builds a new SSN-AUKUS design with Britain.

Osborne already supports naval industry, including maintenance linked to Australia’s existing submarine fleet. The expanded yard is intended to add the specialized facilities and skilled workforce needed for nuclear-submarine construction, with site works and broader expansion expected to run for years.

The ultimate complex system

Foreign money continues to flow into Asian bonds and stocks

Equity positioning has tilted toward Asia. Goldman Sachs said hedge funds bought a record amount of Asian equities (in its series) in the week to 13 February, with the heaviest buying concentrated in South Korea, Taiwan, and China. The purchases spanned technology, real estate, industrials, and consumer discretionary. Goldman added that hedge-fund exposure to Asian stocks is now at its highest level since at least 2016, even as global technology shares have been rattled by renewed concerns about AI-related capital spending.

Overall, Asian markets began 2026 with strong foreign interest across both bonds and equities. Foreign investors registered a fourth consecutive month of net inflows into several Asian local-currency bond markets in January, based on figures compiled from local regulators and bond-market associations.

Net purchases across South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Indonesia totaled about $3.78bn, down from roughly $8.07bn in December, but still in positive territory. South Korea led the region with about $2.45bn of net inflows, followed by Thailand (around $1.5bn) and Malaysia (about $235m).

The trend reflects a mix of regional and country-specific forces. In Indonesia, inflows slowed to roughly $400m amid questions about policy predictability and after Moody’s shifted its outlook to negative. India, meanwhile, recorded net outflows of about $805m, its largest since April, after Bloomberg unexpectedly delayed the inclusion of Indian debt in a global index.

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