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What you need to know

No progress in U.S.-Iran talks as more U.S. assets shift toward Middle East

The diplomats are trying to put a positive spin on talks which showed no evidence of any outcomes worth reporting.

Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said indirect talks between Iran and the U.S., held in Geneva on Tuesday and hosted by Oman, ended with “good progress” toward identifying shared objectives and technical issues. Albusaidi described the atmosphere as constructive and said the parties worked to define guiding principles for a final deal. He also welcomed input from International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi, adding that substantial work remains and that the sides agreed next steps ahead of another meeting.

Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi also portrayed the session as an advance, saying it improved on the previous round and clarified a path forward. Araghchi said no date was set for the next talks, and that both sides would draft proposed texts for a possible agreement before exchanging them and then scheduling a third round. He added that differences remain, but that the discussions produced clearer guiding principles.

However: The U.S. government had not issued an official statement following the meeting. And the U.S. military build up in the region is accelerating.

Open-source flight-tracking data indicates a notable movement of U.S. combat aircraft toward the Middle East over the past 24 hours. At least 125 U.S. land-based fighter aircraft are now deployed or heading toward the Middle East. The reported transfers include 12 F-22 fighters (six already at RAF Lakenheath, with six more expected there before onward movement), 36 F-16s are currently deploying, additional E-3 Sentry airborne-warning aircraft are staging via Ramstein Air Base and RAF Mildenhall (for a reported total of six), an E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node aircraft is reportedly heading through Ramstein in Germany to a Middle East location (with three such aircraft already at Prince Sultan Air Base), and a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft departing RAF Fairford, reportedly bound toward the region. The U-2 is often used as a communications relay between fifth-generation fighters, including the F-22 and F-35.

Separately, an official announcement said the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford and its strike group have left U.S. Southern Command’s area of responsibility and entered the U.S. Sixth Fleet’s area, which covers the eastern Atlantic and the Mediterranean.

Israeli media reported last night that the White House has conveyed to Israel that the negotiations have reached an impasse, arguing that Iran is unwilling to accept the terms President Trump seeks.

A recent precedent is worth examining. On 19 June 2025 the White House said President Donald Trump would decide “within two weeks” whether to pursue diplomacy or a strike. On 22 June 2025, three days later, he ordered strikes on Iran’s nuclear program.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Russia and Ukraine trade strikes as fighting grinds on in Donetsk

Russia and Ukraine traded strikes over the past 24 hours as heavy fighting continued along the Donetsk front. Ukraine’s General Staff reported 235 combat clashes, with the fiercest activity in the Pokrovsk sector.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense claimed its forces captured two settlements, Pokrovka and Minkivka, in eastern Ukraine. In northeastern Ukraine, authorities reported heating disruptions in Sumy amid a broader wave of Russian strikes on energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s air force said Russia carried out a large overnight attack, launching almost 400 drones and 29 missiles. It reported that most were intercepted, but 13 targets were hit across 12 regions.

Ukraine also said three energy workers were killed near the Sloviansk power plant, while Odesa suffered significant damage and widespread power and heating disruptions.

On the Russian side, the Ministry of Defense, via TASS, said air defenses downed 151 Ukrainian drones overnight.

A Ukrainian security official said Ukrainian drones struck the Tamannaftogaz oil terminal in Russia’s Krasnodar region and the Metafrax Chemicals plant in Perm region, which has been reported as producing inputs linked to explosives. Russian regional reporting also said Ukraine attacked Belgorod region with about 30 drones over the past day.

Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine concluded the first day of U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva, with negotiations expected to continue.

U.S.-China frictions widen across security and Taiwan

U.S.-China relations are facing fresh tensions, spanning cybersecurity, regional deterrence, and Taiwan.

Texas filed suit against TP-Link Systems, alleging the router-maker misled consumers about privacy and security and that its devices could enable access by the Chinese government. TP-Link rejected the claims, saying it is U.S.-based and stores American user data on Amazon Web Services.

The same day, the U.S. said it plans to deploy additional advanced missile systems to the Philippines, extending a posture that Manila and Washington describe as defensive and intended to deter coercion in the South China Sea. China criticized the move and urged Washington to reverse course.

Against that backdrop, President Donald Trump said he would decide soon whether to send more weapons to Taiwan, after President Xi Jinping warned against further arms sales to the island.

The new Monroe Doctrine & the Trump Corollary 

Qatar’s prime minister arrives in Venezuela

Qatar’s prime minister, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, arrived in Caracas on Tuesday and was greeted by Venezuela’s foreign minister, Yvan Gil, according to footage broadcast on state television.

Neither government released a public schedule or further details about the visit.

Trash piles up in Havana as fuel shortages hit city services

In Havana, the fuel crunch caused by the U.S. embargo is reaching the most basic municipal services. Local media reported that only 44 of the capital’s 106 garbage trucks were operating in mid-February, leaving collection routes unfinished and trash accumulating on street corners, including in central neighborhoods and along the seafront.

Residents described strong odors, swarms of flies, and rodents scavenging through trash for reusable items, while drivers and pedestrians navigated around growing piles.

The disruption reflects a broader pattern across the island. Cuba has been rationing scarce fuel through tighter controls and appointment-based systems, and the shortages are affecting transport and public services. Recent reporting described long waits and stricter limits for motorists, alongside wider knock-on effects from the energy crunch.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Niger and Algeria seek a reset through gas pipeline

Niger and Algeria said they were opening a “new dynamic” in relations after talks in Algiers between Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune and General Abdourahamane Tchiani, Niger’s military ruler.

Both sides highlighted plans to revive the long-delayed Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, which would carry Nigerian gas north through Niger to Algeria’s export network on the Mediterranean.

Tebboune said the first steps to move construction forward on Nigerien territory would begin after the fasting month of Ramadan (beginning 18/19 February), with Algeria’s state energy company, Sonatrach, expected to lead the work.

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