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What you need to know

Ford carrier steams through Mediterranean as U.S. expands air assets near Iran

USS Gerald R. Ford, the U.S. Navy’s newest aircraft carrier, has entered the Mediterranean Sea after transiting the Strait of Gibraltar on 20 February, according to U.S. naval reporting.

The carrier’s embarked air wing, Carrier Air Wing 8, includes strike fighters, electronic-attack aircraft, and airborne early-warning platforms. At least one escort, USS Winston S. Churchill, has been identified as the air-defense commander, alongside other Norfolk-based destroyers. While physical sightings confirm the group’s entry into the Mediterranean, its current location is unknown. It is expected to appear off the coast of Israel in coming days.

The maritime deployment comes amid a rise in U.S. air activity spanning Europe and the Middle East. Satellite-imagery reporting has described a surge at Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base (Azraq), with more than 60 U.S. aircraft said to be present. Reporting describes a mix that includes F-35s and F-15s, alongside electronic-attack aircraft and additional force-protection systems.

The next indicators to watch are whether the carrier is sighted east of Sicily or Crete, or shows signs of moving toward the Suez Canal, and whether tanker and airborne command-and-control activity continues to increase.

The U.S. and Iran prepare for another round of nuclear talks in Geneva

A third round of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran is expected to take place in Geneva on Thursday, as both sides try to break a diplomatic impasse over Tehran’s nuclear program. The talks follow two earlier sessions of indirect negotiations mediated by Oman, and come amid heightened tensions in the Middle East and a reinforced U.S. military posture in the region.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi confirmed on Sunday that delegations from Washington and Tehran would meet again in Switzerland’s diplomatic hub. Omani officials have portrayed the meeting as part of a constructive push to finalize a deal, building on the groundwork laid in earlier rounds in Geneva.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has suggested the talks will remain narrowly focused on nuclear questions, with Tehran preparing a draft proposal that could serve as the basis for an agreement. Iranian statements have emphasized confidence-building steps that might accompany sanctions relief, while reaffirming Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear activity under international oversight.

Disagreements remain substantial. Iranian officials have repeated that ballistic missiles and regional security issues are not on the agenda, and that the discussions should concentrate on nuclear safeguards. U.S. negotiators have pressed for wider commitments, including limits on missiles, support to regional proxies, uranium enrichment and robust verification arrangements.

For now, Geneva offers a chance, albeit a narrow one, to bridge gaps that have long blocked a comprehensive settlement. Observers will be watching for tangible progress, including written proposals or an agreed framework. 

We are not confident that progress is possible without significant Iranian concessions.

Iran’s domestic socio-political situation

Student protests have re-emerged across Tehran, and beyond, for a third consecutive day. Confrontations inside campuses between pro and anti-government groups have increased.

The immediate backdrop appears to be anger over the brutality of the recent crackdown, combined with the broader atmosphere of tension between Tehran and Washington as the U.S. military buildup contines. That mix appears to be heightening the regime’s threat perceptions while accelerating the opposition’s sense of urgency.

At Sharif University of Technology, one of Iran’s best-known engineering schools, reporting and video show scuffles between anti-regime students and regime loyalists, including Basij-linked groups. Students displayed monarchist symbolism, including the Lion and Sun flag, and chanted for “freedom”, according to reporting on protests on 22 February.

At Amirkabir University in Tehran, reporting also describes physical clashes between pro- and anti-establishment groups.

Across these campuses, pro-regime counter-mobilization has been reported as well. Multiple outlets describe loyalists staging their own demonstrations, including flag-burning and hardline slogans, though accounts differ on the exact wording.

Iran International, a pro-opposition Saudi-backed media outlet, reports anti-government protest activity at Tehran University of Art during the same wave.

Alzahra University, the all-female university in Tehran, also appears to have witnessed anti-regime protests.

In Abdanan, a Kurdish city in Ilam province, Iran International reports that security forces fired live rounds to disperse mourners marking the 40th day since killings in January. The same reporting includes claims of localized internet disruption.

A noteworthy development occurred over the weekend, with the main Iranian Kurdish parties holding a press conference in Iraqi Kurdistan to announce the formation of a coalition. The coalition platform reported as a “united front” names five parties: Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (often rendered as PDKI or KDPI in English-language reporting), Khabat Organization of Iranian Kurdistan, and Komala Party of Kurdistan (Toilers). Some accounts describe the process as broader than five parties, noting that not all Komala factions signed early drafts, which suggests intra-Kurdish coordination is improving but remains incomplete.

Note: Even though events are inside Iran, the information chain often runs through Iraqi Kurdistan, via activists, exile media, and party offices. Iran’s practice of internet disruption is degrading cross-border reporting flows, meaning our picture of events inside Iran still remains very patchy.

Birthplace of civilization

Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah sites in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley

Israeli warplanes hit three Hezbollah “command centers” linked to the group’s missile units in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley late on Friday, in one of the deadliest rounds of strikes in eastern Lebanon in recent months. 

Lebanon’s health ministry said at least 10 people were killed and dozens wounded. Hezbollah said eight of its members were killed, including a commander, while other reporting described some of the dead as local officials within the group.

Israel said it was targeting Hezbollah personnel involved in preparing attacks and described the sites as part of the group’s missile infrastructure in the Baalbek area, near Rayak. Hezbollah said the deaths resulted from an Israeli attack on the Bekaa and that its members were killed while “defending Lebanon”, wording it typically uses to indicate an operational role rather than civilian status.

The strikes come amid a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire dating from 2024, which Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly accused each other of breaching. The latest bombardment risked widening the conflict beyond the southern border strip, since the Bekaa is a key logistics and storage zone for Hezbollah’s longer-range capabilities. President Joseph Aoun condemned the attacks as a violation of sovereignty and urged outside powers, including the U.S., to press for de-escalation.

During the same round of operations, Israel also struck what it said was a Hamas command center in Lebanon’s Ain al-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near Sidon. The attack reflected Israel’s broader effort to target allied militant networks on Lebanese territory even as the ceasefire framework holds, uneasily, along the frontier.

U.S. forces leave another base in Syria

U.S. forces are pulling out of yet another foothold in northeastern Syria, suggesting that Washington’s decade-long military presence may be nearing its end. Social media imagery showed a long convoy of trucks hauling armored vehicles and prefabricated structures along the road linking the base to the Iraqi border.

The move from Qasrak follows two other departures over the past fortnight. U.S. forces have vacated the al-Tanf garrison, a strategically placed outpost near the Syria–Iraq–Jordan border that for years served as a tripwire against Islamic State militants and, indirectly, Iran-backed networks moving across the frontier. Separately, Syrian authorities say they have taken over the al-Shaddadi base after a U.S. withdrawal coordinated with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Taken together, the base closures fit with a broader run of reporting that the Trump administration is drawing down, and potentially ending, the U.S. deployment of roughly 1,000 troops in Syria.  

What changes on the ground will depend on who fills the vacuum. The U.S. mission has relied heavily on the SDF, which helped defeat the Islamic State’s territorial “caliphate” in 2019. If Syrian government forces, now expanding into former Kurdish-held areas, cannot keep pressure on Islamic State cells or manage detention and displacement sites, the risk of an extremist resurgence will grow, as many critics of the U.S. withdrawal have warned.

The new Monroe Doctrine & the Trump Corollary 

Mexico says “El Mencho” cartel leader killed

Mexico’s security forces say they have killed Nemesio Ruben Oseguera Cervantes, known as “El Mencho”, the long-hunted leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), in a major operation in the western state of Jalisco.

Mexican and international reports say the raid took place in or around the mountain town of Tapalpa, south-west of Guadalajara. It involved the army and the National Guard, and reportedly drew on U.S. intelligence support.

The killing prompted swift reprisals. Authorities and local media described coordinated roadblocks and vehicle burnings across multiple states, alongside shootouts and arson attacks. Disruptions were reported in and around Guadalajara and in tourist corridors, including flight cancellations and tighter security measures in parts of western Mexico.

Oseguera Cervantes’s death is one of the biggest blows to a Mexican cartel leadership in years. Analysts and officials expect a turbulent period as CJNG factions and rivals test the succession, raising the risk of violence further cartel violence.

Move fast and break things

Supreme Court limits President Donald Trump’s tariff powers, and Trump finds a workaround

On 20 February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) does not authorize the president to impose tariffs, voiding a set of duties that had been justified as an emergency economic measure.

The administration moved quickly. The White House issued a proclamation imposing a temporary 10% import duty for 150 days, citing Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 and presenting the move as a response to balance-of-payments problems.

Days later, the stopgap was expanded. U.S. Customs and Border Protection said it would stop collecting the now-invalid IEEPA-linked tariffs at 12:01 a.m. EST on 24 February, deactivating the relevant tariff codes, as a new 15% global tariff took effect under the alternative authority. The agency said it would issue further guidance, including on practical questions for importers, such as the handling of collections and any refunds.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Continued Ukrainian advances on the ground

Ukraine has now retaken more than 300 square kilometres (116 square miles) and eight settlements near the Dnipropetrovsk-Zaporizhzhia border since the beginning of it mid-February counteroffensive, according to Ukraine’s Air Assault Forces.

The Ukrainian military says its units cleared Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from the recaptured area in the Oleksandrivka sector, a stretch of the southern front that has been volatile through the winter. President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously cited the 300-square-kilometre figure on 20 February, before the Air Assault Forces published additional detail over the weekend.

The operation appears to have benefited from disruptions to Russian battlefield communications. Ukrainian and regional reporting has pointed to restrictions on illicit “grey” Starlink terminals used by Russian forces, which are said to have degraded command-and-control and reduced the effectiveness of drone and artillery coordination. Estonian military intelligence has also said that limits on Starlink and constraints on Telegram have slowed Russian communications.

Independent confirmation of exact boundaries remains difficult in real time, but open-source analysis supports the broad thrust of Ukrainian gains in the wider Zaporizhzhia area. This is Ukraine’s fastest battlefield progress since 2023.

Even if tactically limited, the recapture would matter politically and operationally for Kyiv. Since late 2024 Russian forces have generally been the side making incremental gains in many sectors. A local counterstroke on the southern line complicates Russian planning, restores some depth near the Dnipropetrovsk regional boundary, and offers a rare morale boost at a time when Ukraine’s forces are stretched and the front remains fluid.

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