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Four years in, Ukraine war grinds on amid drone dominance and diplomatic strain

Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022, the conflict has settled into a grinding contest of attrition. Technology is compressing the battlefield, while politics is constricting Ukraine’s strategic options.

Russia still occupies roughly a fifth of Ukraine’s territory, but its advances have slowed markedly, with only about 1.3% more territory taken since early 2023. Those incremental gains have come at a steep price, driven by repeated small-unit infantry assaults.

On Tuesday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used the anniversary to argue that Russia has failed to break Ukraine, and pledged not to trade the country’s sacrifices for a hurried settlement. He invited President Donald Trump to visit Ukraine as U.S.-brokered talks remained stuck on territory, with Russia pressing for further Ukrainian concessions and Kyiv refusing to cede land it says was defended at great cost.

European unity has also frayed. Hungary has continued to veto a new European Union sanctions package and a proposed €90 billion loan ($106.0 billion) for Ukraine, illustrating how hard it is to sustain long-term support as the war drags on.

On the battlefield, drones have reshaped daily operations. First-person-view drones have widened a lethal kill zone along a roughly 1,200-kilometer (746-mile) front, forcing tanks and other armored vehicles to stay concealed and making routine movements, including evacuations, far more dangerous. Ukraine is also increasing its use of unmanned ground vehicles for logistics and casualty evacuation, Ukrainian officials said.

The economic toll is rising in parallel. A joint assessment by the World Bank, the United Nations, the European Commission, and the Ukrainian government put Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery needs at $588 billion over the next decade, citing mounting damage to energy infrastructure and persistent large-scale disruption.

Move fast and break things

Trump will set out his agenda in Tuesday’s State of the Union

President Donald Trump will deliver the State of the Union address on Tuesday night, speaking to a joint session of Congress at the U.S. Capitol. The speech is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

White House officials have indicated an economy-heavy address. Reporting says Trump plans to highlight what the administration describes as strong economic performance and to preview additional measures intended to reduce the cost of living. The official theme is “America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected”, tying the message to the 250th anniversary of U.S. independence in 2026.

Democrats will deliver a coordinated rebuttal. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer have announced that Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger will give the party’s televised response, while Senator Alex Padilla will deliver the Spanish-language response.

The U.S. women’s ice hockey team, fresh from winning gold, declined an invitation to attend, citing pre-existing academic and professional commitments.

Birthplace of civilization

U.S. solidifies two-carrier posture across the Middle East 

The U.S. has adopted a two-carrier posture across the wider Middle East as tensions with Iran rise, with one carrier air wing operating in the Mediterranean and another in the Arabian Sea.

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford was sighted near Souda Bay, Greece on 23 Feb after transiting the Strait of Gibraltar, according to the U.S. Naval Institute’s Fleet and Marine Tracker. USNI lists the group’s principal escorts as USS Winston S. Churchill (the air-defense commander), USS Bainbridge, and USS Mahan. It also notes independently deployed destroyers USS Roosevelt, USS Bulkeley, and USS Thomas Hudner operating in the Mediterranean.

USNI separately places the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, maintaining a second carrier air wing closer to Gulf approaches. In the Persian Gulf, USNI lists guided-missile destroyers USS Mitscher and USS Michael Murphy, alongside the littoral combat ship USS Canberra, operating near the Strait of Hormuz.

Satellite imagery also indicates a large increase in U.S. tactical aviation at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and heavier activity at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia. Together, the signs point to a broader support structure, including airlift and enabling aircraft, reinforcing the naval deployments.

Rubio briefs the Gang of Eight on Iran

Secretary of State Marco Rubio will brief the “Gang of Eight” today on the administration’s position regarding Iran. The meeting suggests that the Trump administration is shifting into a more formal phase of congressional consultation as tensions with Tehran intensify and the possibility of military action grows.

The “Gang of Eight” comprises the small, bipartisan group of lawmakers who receive the most sensitive national-security briefings: the speaker and minority leader of the House of Representatives; the majority and minority leaders of the Senate; and the chairs and ranking members of the House and Senate intelligence committees.

The briefing also aligns with a parallel diplomatic effort. Rubio is expected to meet Israel’s leadership in person later this week, on 28 February, to discuss the state of U.S.-Iran talks and potential next steps. Together, these moves illustrate how closely congressional consultation, allied coordination, and military planning are now intertwined.

Reports say top U.S. general warned of strike risks, Trump denies that
Multiple outlets report that General Dan Caine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has cautioned President Donald Trump and senior officials that a “major operation” against Iran would carry serious drawbacks, not least the risk of drifting into a longer campaign than intended. The reported concerns include strained munitions stockpiles, especially air- and missile-defense interceptors, the complexity and scale of target sets if objectives expand, and uneven allied support for basing and overflight that would complicate planning.

However, Trump has publicly rejected the idea that Caine was warning him off action. He called the accounts “100 percent incorrect” and portrayed the general as confident that, if ordered, a conflict would be “easily won”. The response is also about message discipline: the White House is seeking to project unity and deterrence as internal debate over options continues.

Oman, which has been facilitating the negotiations channel, has said the next round of talks is scheduled for Thursday, 26 February, in Geneva. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner plan to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi there, with the diplomatic track cast as a last attempt to test whether Tehran will shift its position before Washington settles on military options.

What to watch over the next 48 hours: Whether the Geneva meeting goes ahead as planned, and whether either side points to a concrete drafting process rather than broad, “constructive” language. Whether U.S. messaging moves from deadline pressure to specific negotiating terms, including enrichment, inspections, missiles, and proxies, which would imply a deal structure rather than pure coercion. Whether further signs emerge of allied constraints on basing or overflight, or of additional force-protection measures, which would suggest Washington is preparing for escalation even as talks proceed.

U.S. trims embassy staff in Beirut as regional tensions rise

The U.S. State Department has ordered the departure of non-emergency U.S. government personnel and eligible family members from the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, citing a worsening security environment as tensions with Iran increase. The embassy will remain open and continue operating with essential staff, U.S. officials said, presenting the move as a precautionary reduction in footprint rather than a closure.

The drawdown comes as Washington grows more concerned about possible retaliation against U.S. personnel and facilities across the region if the confrontation with Tehran escalates, including through Iran-aligned groups such as Hezbollah.

U.S. envoy Tom Barrack’s Baghdad push collides with Iraq’s caretaker constraints

Ambassador Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Türkiye and White House special envoy, visited Baghdad over the past 24 hours for meetings with caretaker Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, and Faeq Zidan, the head of Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council, as Washington pressed for political stability and de-escalation amid regional tension. In public readouts, Barrack stressed Iraq’s role in dampening tensions, advancing dialogue, and supporting counterterrorism cooperation, with a particular focus on Syria.

The visit coincided with a major southern oil move. On 23 February, Sudani oversaw the signing of two preliminary agreements in principle with Chevron. One sets out a pathway to shift management of the West Qurna 2 field in Basra from sanctions-hit Russian oil company Lukoil to the state-run Basra Oil Company and, after negotiations and approvals, to Chevron. The other covers development plans for the Nasiriyah field and four exploration blocks in Dhi Qar, along with the Balad field in Salah al-Din.

In Iraqi political circles, the announcements have reopened a sensitive legal question: whether a caretaker cabinet can sign far-reaching energy deals. Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court ruling that limits the government to caretaker powers is widely read as barring major acts, including the conclusion of contracts and the signing of international agreements. That leaves Sudani vulnerable to challenges from rivals if the Chevron track moves ahead before a fully empowered government is formed.

The new Monroe Doctrine & the Trump Corollary 

Panama rewires two canal ports after court cancels China-linked concessions

Panama has acted to remove a China-linked operator from two strategically placed container terminals at either end of the Panama Canal, and to transfer day-to-day operations, for now, to two of the world’s largest shipping groups.

On 23 February, the government published a Supreme Court ruling that annulled long-standing concessions held by Panama Ports Company, a subsidiary of Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison, for Balboa (Pacific side) and Cristóbal (Atlantic side).

Under an interim arrangement, APM Terminals (part of Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk) is expected to operate Balboa, while Terminal Investment Limited (TIL), controlled by Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), will operate Cristóbal. Panama has described the handover as temporary, intended to keep cargo moving while it develops a new, competitive concession framework. President Jose Raul Mulino has also said jobs would be protected.

CK Hutchison has denounced the move as unlawful and politically driven, arguing that Panamanian authorities pressured staff and intervened abruptly at the ports. The company says it will pursue legal remedies in Panama and internationally.

The change is a win for Washington’s effort to reduce Beijing’s perceived leverage over critical trade infrastructure near the canal. Chinese officials and Hong Kong authorities have condemned the court decision and warned Panama of political and economic repercussions.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Australia rolls out biggest Russia sanctions package since 2022

Australia has imposed targeted sanctions on 180 individuals, entities, and “shadow fleet” vessels linked to Russia, its largest Russia-related tranche since February 2022, as the war in Ukraine entered its fifth year.

The government said the measures are intended to cut Russian revenues and limit Moscow’s ability to sustain the invasion, with designations covering finance and banking, defense, aeronautics, oil and gas, transport, and science and technology.

For the first time, Canberra also sanctioned cryptocurrency entities, arguing that some are being used to facilitate cross-border payments that help evade restrictions and keep Russia’s war economy operating.

Australia also lowered the Russian oil price cap from $47.60 a barrel to $44.10 a barrel, in line with partner efforts to reduce the realized value of Russian crude exports.

The announcement was paired with a restatement of Australia’s support for Kyiv: more than $1.7bn in total assistance, including $1.5bn in military support, plus $40m for the Ukraine Energy Support Fund (including $10m announced in January 2026).

Australia places A$310m UK order for SSN-AUKUS long-lead parts

Canberra says the early purchase will reduce production risk for nuclear propulsion systems for its first two Australian-built boats and deepen industrial integration with Britain.

Australia will pay A$310m ($219m) to acquire long-lead items from the United Kingdom for the nuclear propulsion systems that will power its first two SSN-AUKUS submarines, the Albanese government said today. The components, which can take years to manufacture, are intended to support the future construction of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered attack submarines at Osborne in South Australia later this decade.

The announcement was made in London alongside the revived Australia–UK Defence Industry Dialogue, the first ministerial-level meeting of its kind since 2018. Australian Minister for Defence Industry Pat Conroy and British Minister for Defence Readiness and Industry Luke Pollard said the two sides would tighten supply-chain and workforce integration to deliver SSN-AUKUS, including trade missions and additional industrial cooperation in the months ahead.

The payment comes as Canberra accelerates preparations for AUKUS “Pillar One”. Australia has recently committed additional funding to expand infrastructure at Osborne.

The broader pathway includes plans to acquire U.S. Virginia-class submarines in the 2030s and to host rotational U.S. and UK submarine deployments from HMAS Stirling starting in 2027.

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