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Oman & Iran strike upbeat tone, White House quiet, after Geneva nuclear talks

Oman’s foreign minister said the U.S. and Iran made “significant progress” in indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva on 26 February, even as the day ended without an announced deal and with the U.S. military buildup still hanging over the process.

In a brief Omani foreign-ministry readout, foreign minister Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said the talks would “resume after consultations in the two capitals,” and that technical discussions would take place next week in Vienna. He also thanked the International Atomic Energy Agency and Switzerland, suggesting that he expects that verification and process logistics will shape what comes next.

A second Omani statement, issued earlier in the day after Albusaidi met U.S. negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, was more expansive. It described discussions conducted in a “constructive spirit,” featuring “creative and positive ideas,” and “unprecedented” openness to new approaches aimed at a “fair agreement with sustainable guarantees.”

Iran echoed the mediator’s optimistic language. Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister and lead negotiator, described the Geneva round as unusually long and serious, saying the discussions had moved into the “elements of an agreement” on both the nuclear file and sanctions relief, while acknowledging that differences remain.

Iranian accounts of the meeting also emphasized the turn toward technical work. Araghchi said experts would convene in Vienna on Monday, alongside the IAEA, to work through the practical and oversight issues that any agreement would require.

The contrast between upbeat statements and unresolved fundamentals is the point. Oman is marketing momentum and process. Iran is presenting flexibility on implementation and sequencing, especially on sanctions. “Significant progress” has not translated into visible movement on core disputes, notably enrichment limits, stockpiles, guarantees, and what sanctions relief would look like in practice.

Birthplace of civilization

An “Iran Freedom Congress” convenes in London

An “Iran Freedom Congress” is scheduled to meet in London on 28–29 March, according to its organizers, who describe it as a big-tent forum for coordination among Iranian opposition and civil-society currents, rather than a new political party.

Preparations began with a two-day meeting on 23–24 February, when a 30-person working group gathered to shape the agenda. Participants were said to span much of the anti-regime spectrum, from constitutional monarchists to figures on the left, alongside representatives of Kurdish, Azerbaijani, Arab Ahwazi, and Baloch communities, as well as civil-society activists. Organizers add that many attendees have direct links to prominent figures and networks inside Iran.

Supporters cast the congress as a bid to reduce fragmentation by creating a neutral platform for cooperation, coordination, and mediation among democratic forces committed to pluralism and inclusion. They also insist it is not directed against any individual or movement, including Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi and the momentum around him, but is meant to provide a structured space in which disparate groups can work together.

Kaine says Senate vote nears on bid to curb strikes on Iran

Senator Tim Kaine said yesterday that a bipartisan resolution he has introduced with Senator Rand Paul to bar attacks on Iran without congressional authorization would “likely be before the body next week,” setting up a near-term test of Congress’s willingness to reclaim its war-making powers.

The measure is structured as a War Powers resolution, a procedurally privileged vehicle that can compel Senate consideration even when party leaders would rather avoid a divisive vote.

In the House, senior Democrats say they will force a war-powers vote next week on Iran that would require President Donald Trump to terminate the use of military force against Iran unless Congress explicitly authorizes it through a declaration of war.

However, at the same time, some senior House Democrats are apparently working behind the scenes to delay or sideline such a vote on a bipartisan Iran war-powers resolution, wary of forcing every member onto the record as the prospect of a U.S. conflict with Iran grows.

Israeli airstrikes in east Lebanon kill at least 2 & injure dozens as tensions rise

Israeli aircraft carried out a wave of air and drone strikes across eastern Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley on Thursday night, killing at least two people, including a teenage boy, and injuring dozens more. The attacks were among the heaviest breaches of the shaky post-ceasefire status quo.

The strikes, concentrated around the Baalbek district, were confirmed by Lebanese officials and by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF said it had targeted eight military compounds used by Hezbollah’s Radwan Force.

According to Lebanon’s National News Agency, the dead included a 16-year-old Syrian boy. Eighteen civilians were reported wounded across the region. Homes, shops, and other civilian property were damaged as air raids hit from multiple directions, west, east, and north of Baalbek.

Lebanon’s Ministry of Health and local media broadly corroborated the casualty figures, while noting that emergency services struggled to handle the flow of casualties amid panic in surrounding towns and villages.

Israeli officials said the strikes focused on infrastructure linked to Hezbollah’s Radwan Force, including sites used to store rockets and other weapons and facilities used for training and operational planning. Israel described the targets as a threat to its security, and argued that Hezbollah’s attempts to rearm violate the understandings behind the U.S.- and French-brokered ceasefire that took effect in November 2024.

Lebanese media reported strikes on the outskirts of several villages, including Shmestar and Buday, as well as areas around Nabi Chit.

Lebanese political and military figures condemned the bombardment as a violation of the ceasefire, and said complaints had been lodged with the United Nations. Hezbollah has not issued an immediate public response.

Separately, earlier this week a senior Hezbollah official was quoted in the media saying the group does not plan to intervene if the United States carries out only limited strikes against Iran, a stance that may reflect careful internal calculations and a desire to maintain what institutional structure they have left after heavy Israeli attacks from September to November 2024.

Lebanon’s government says it is trying to preserve stability and sovereignty. Repeated cross-border attacks, however, highlight the fragility of the country’s security environment as it struggles with ongoing economic crisis and political paralysis.

Lebanon seeks a place on IMEC map

Lebanon’s leaders are pitching the country as a potential node in the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), with the ports of Beirut and Tripoli framed as the most plausible entry points.

On Wednesday, President Joseph Aoun met Gérard Mestrallet, President Emmanuel Macron’s special envoy for IMEC, and said Lebanon was ready to engage in the initiative in a way that serves its national interests.

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam separately received Mestrallet and discussed the economic feasibility of integrating Beirut and Tripoli into the corridor concept, according to official Lebanese reporting.

Lebanese media reports say the effort is moving into a more practical phase, with follow-on coordination involving the Ministry of Public Works and Transport, as French officials sound out the positions of countries central to IMEC’s next steps.

Pakistan & Afghanistan on the brink: war declared as clashes widen into airstrikes

Pakistan and Afghanistan are locked in one of their most serious confrontations in years. Cross-border exchanges of fire have expanded into airstrikes on major cities, alongside public claims of “open war” from officials in Islamabad. The rapid deterioration reflects long-running disputes over militancy, sovereignty, and the contested frontier known as the Durand Line.

In the past 48 hours, violence has surged along the roughly 2,600-kilometer (1,616-mile) frontier. Pakistani and Afghan forces have exchanged heavy fire in multiple sectors, with some clashes reportedly lasting hours.

Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government has described its actions as a “retaliatory operation” against what it calls unlawful Pakistani strikes on Afghan territory. Pakistani authorities say Afghan forces launched “unprovoked” attacks and have promised a forceful response.

Last night Pakistan launched airstrikes on Kabul and across Kandahar, Paktia, and Nangarhar provinces. That marks a shift from border skirmishes to strikes on key urban centers. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Defense Minister Khawaja Asif have warned that Pakistan’s armed forces are prepared to respond decisively. Asif said Pakistan’s “patience has reached its limit” and described the confrontation as “open war” between the two states.

Competing claims of battlefield losses have followed. Afghan officials say their forces killed dozens of Pakistani soldiers and seized military outposts along the frontier. Pakistani authorities, by contrast, report killing dozens of Afghan fighters and destroying multiple positions. Civilian casualties have been reported on both sides, including shelling that struck a camp near the Torkham crossing and injured returnees and local residents. Independent confirmation of most claims remains difficult.

Operation Ghazab Lil Haq, the name Islamabad has given its current offensive, was announced on 26 February. Pakistani officials present it as a response to cross-border attacks and militant activity, including strikes against Taliban positions and alleged militant hideouts. The Taliban government has condemned the operation as a violation of Afghan sovereignty.

The escalation draws on tensions between Islamabad and Kabul that have intensified since the Taliban returned to power in August 2021. Pakistan initially welcomed the takeover, expecting the Taliban to curb militant groups operating along the frontier, above all Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

That expectation has largely been disappointed. Islamabad accuses the TTP and allied factions of using Afghan territory to launch attacks inside Pakistan, including suicide bombings and ambushes. In early February 2026 a suicide vehicle attack in Bajaur District killed 11 Pakistani security personnel and a child, an assault Islamabad attributed to TTP fighters based across the border. Pakistan argues that this pattern shows Kabul is failing to prevent Afghan territory from being used as a rear base, a charge the Taliban reject.

On 22 February Pakistan carried out airstrikes in eastern Afghanistan, saying it targeted militant camps linked to the TTP and Islamic State–Khorasan Province (ISKP). Afghan officials said the strikes hit civilian homes and religious schools, killing and injuring non-combatants. They pledged an “appropriate and measured response.”

The latest wave of violence has pushed both sides beyond brief border shootings toward sustained operations and aerial bombardment.

The Durand Line, a colonial-era border demarcation, has never been recognized by Afghanistan’s governments and remains a perennial flashpoint. While disputes over its legitimacy are largely political, the frontier’s rugged terrain has for decades provided cover for insurgent groups, complicating security cooperation.

Pakistan’s domestic security environment has also deteriorated. Alongside TTP-linked violence, Islamabad has confronted separatist groups in Balochistan and a broader militant threat, reinforcing a harder military posture and demands for tighter border controls. Afghan denials have repeatedly frustrated Pakistani policymakers, who view militant sanctuaries as a direct threat to national security.

Green Party of England and Wales stuns Labour with by-election upset

The Green Party of England and Wales has delivered a sharp rebuke to the governing Labour Party in a parliamentary by-election that upended decades of habit and exposed new strains within Britain’s governing coalition.

In Gorton and Denton, a Greater Manchester seat long treated as safely Labour, voters pushed the Greens into first place, dropping Labour into third behind Reform UK. The result ranks among the Greens’ most consequential by-election gains and will intensify scrutiny of Labour’s direction under Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

The numbers alone tell a clear story. A constituency that handed Labour a five-figure majority at the last general election swung decisively away, pointing to more than a routine mid-term protest. By-elections often serve as outlets for dissatisfaction, but this one highlighted a deeper squeeze: Labour bled support to its left among progressive and younger voters, while Reform gathered much of the anti-establishment vote on the right.

For the Greens, the victory offers practical evidence that first-past-the-post voting is not an impossible obstacle when local organization, national mood and vote-splitting align. The party will try to convert the result into momentum ahead of local elections, arguing that it can turn protest into representation.

Labour, by contrast, now faces awkward questions. Its electoral strategy has depended on holding together a broad coalition that spans metropolitan progressives, socially conservative former industrial voters and tactical anti-Conservative support. This by-election suggests that coalition is more fragile than assumed. A three-way contest, once an exception, increasingly looks routine.

Reform, too, will take heart. Although it did not win the seat, finishing ahead of Labour in a traditionally safe constituency points to a growing capacity to shape contests beyond its strongholds.

The by-election should be seen as a serious political blow to Starmer. He tied Labour’s fortunes closely to the contest by intervening in the candidate choice, visiting the seat, and allowing confident briefings that Labour could win. In hindsight, Labour’s campaign strategy, including downplaying the Green Party, looks badly misjudged.

The takeaway is also structural: the Greens are now a growing national threat to Labour, not only because of Gaza but because they presented themselves in Gorton as a working-class alternative. More broadly, the result is cited as evidence of a real political realignment: Greens plus Reform won 69.4% of the vote, while Labour and the Conservatives together took 27.3%, suggesting the old two-party dominance is eroding. Reform, despite not winning, should be heartened by taking 29% in Manchester.

The wider implication is a more splintered political landscape. With the two largest parties facing challengers on multiple fronts, by-elections are becoming laboratories of volatility.  

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