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U.S.-Israeli offensive against Iran after diplomacy stalls

The U.S. and Israel shifted from coercive diplomacy to open warfare over the weekend, after Thursday’s Geneva talks ended without a deal and with both sides still far apart on core demands. Oman, acting as the main intermediary, said the 26 February round produced “significant progress” and that follow-on technical talks would take place in Vienna. No agreement was announced, and there was no U.S. public readout to match Muscat’s optimism.

On Friday, Oman’s foreign minister, Sayyid Badr Albusaidi, flew to Washington and met Vice President J.D. Vance. Albusaidi briefed Vance on the state of negotiations and urged a diplomatic exit ramp. The trip was widely seen as a last attempt to avert strikes.

From early Saturday, 28 February 2026, that exit ramp closed. U.S. and Israeli forces launched coordinated strikes across Iran, using U.S. sea-launched cruise missiles and other stand-off munitions alongside Israeli aircraft and supporting systems.

The first wave as aimed at the regime’s senior command. An Israeli military spokesperson said the operation killed dozens of senior Iranian commanders in a tightly compressed window.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the initial strike package, a major escalation that recast the conflict from punitive raids against certain regime capabilities into a campaign seeking to topple Iran’s government.

A three-man interim council, made up of President Masoud Pezeshkian, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and Ayatollah Alireza Arafi (a senior cleric linked to Iran’s constitutional oversight bodies), has been established to guide the government.

Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Ali Larijani appears to have emerged as the most powerful political actor in Iran and is overseeing the transition to a new administration. Whether Larijani has been spared by the U.S. and Israel, because he is a potential interlocutor, or for other reasons (such as inability to reach him), remains unclear.

Director-General Rafael Grossi of the International Atomic Energy Agency said there was “no indication” that Israel and the U.S. had hit Iran’s nuclear facilities. He added that the agency had not been able to contact Iranian nuclear officials.

Iran responded with a broad retaliatory volley across the region. Iranian missiles targeted Israel and multiple countries hosting U.S. forces in the Gulf.

According to official figures:

In a sign that centralized command-and-control inside Iran may have been badly degraded, Iran’s government said the strike on the Omani port of Duqm was carried out without orders, on local initiative.

Iranian attacks on its neighbors have continued today at a lower volume.

Local reporting described smoke near the U.S. embassy compound in Kuwait City.

Iran also struck Saudi oil infrastructure, including claims of damage at Saudi Aramco facilities at Ras Tanura, amid the broader regional escalation. Ras Tanura is among the world’s largest oil refining and export hubs. The refinery is Saudi Aramco’s largest, with capacity of roughly 550,000 barrels per day.

U.S. Central Command has confirmed three F-15’s downed in a ‘friendly fire’ incident; Iran has tried to claim that it shot down an F-15, but that remains unverified and unlikely, given the damage done to Iranian air defenses since Saturday. All pilots were reported to have ejected safely.

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry, which previously had close links with Tehran, said Iran would have to pay a price for attacks on its people, and that Iran’s strikes could not go unanswered.

Larijani said Iran would not negotiate with the U.S., and described President Donald Trump’s aims as delusional.

This war is only in the beginning stage, and is likely to have unpredictable second and third order effects.

Birthplace of civilization

Inside Iran, public signs of unrest remain limited as the security state braces

Iran is entering a volatile interregnum rather than an outright uprising.

In Tehran, crowds have appeared in central squares in organized mourning for the death of the Supreme Leader.

At the same time, diplomats and journalists describe pockets of private celebration in some neighborhoods, including honking and shouts from windows, hinting at a deep undercurrent of anger that could still spill into the streets.

The regime’s posture is defensive and alert. Iranian state media has warned “secessionist” groups against exploiting the moment, a familiar precursor to rapid arrests and security force deployment. There is no hard evidence so far of widespread defections that would make a rapid political collapse plausible.

What is new is the extent to which the conflict itself may be degrading the state’s internal control mechanisms. Reporting indicates that strikes have hit elements linked to internal security and command in Tehran, while cyber activity and connectivity disruptions are complicating communication inside the country. That combination cuts both ways: it can hinder protest coordination and verification, but it can also slow the regime’s ability to manage a fast-moving crisis across multiple cities.

For now, the clearest pattern is heightened uncertainty. Iran has the coercive tools to suppress demonstrations, but the shock to leadership, the information disruptions, and the potential for localized unrest mean the situation could shift quickly, especially if economic disruption intensifies or casualties mount.

Hezbollah enters the Iran war, and Israel widens the fight in Lebanon

After what Lebanese officials described as a U.S.-Israeli understanding (relayed by U.S. Ambassador to Beirut Michel Issa) that Lebanon would not be targeted if Hezbollah stayed out of the conflict, and after a weekend of relative calm, Hezbollah launched drone and rocket attacks on northern Israel overnight.

Israel’s response was immediate and remains underway. Lebanese reporting said Israeli airstrikes killed 31 people and wounded 149. In the Dahiyeh district of Beirut alone, 20 were reported killed and 91 wounded; in south Lebanon, 11 were reported killed and 58 wounded.

Several senior figures linked to Hezbollah were reported killed in Israeli strikes last night, including Ali Damoush, head of Hezbollah’s Executive Council; Muhammad Ra’ad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc; and Muhammad Reza Fadlallah, the brother of late Grand Ayatollah Mohammad Hussein Fadlallah.

Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, Israel’s chief of the general staff, said Israel had launched an “offensive battle” against Hezbollah, portraying the campaign as moving beyond defensive actions.

Israeli messaging has also hardened. A source quoted by the Saudi channel Al-Hadath said no Hezbollah political or military figure would be treated as off-limits and suggested the operation could expand, including the possibility of an incursion.

On Monday, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, was now a “target for elimination”.

By mid-morning, the Israeli air force again struck south Beirut, in what was described as an attempt to kill a prominent Hezbollah leader. Reports identified the target as Khalil Harb, described as Hezbollah’s military commander.

Middle East fighting grounds air cargo & rattles supply route through Hormuz

Conflict in the Middle East has stressed global logistics, knocking an estimated 18% of worldwide air-freight capacity out of the market over the weekend as airlines canceled, rerouted, or suspended services across a widening arc of closed or restricted airspace.

Israel said it would begin reopening its airspace on Monday evening in a “controlled, monitored, and coordinated” manner, a step intended to restore some commercial aviation flows after Ben Gurion’s closure at the start of the conflict. In the UAE, eight flights took off from Abu Dhabi airport so far today.

The deeper systemic risk lies at sea. Fighting has spread into the shipping corridor around the Strait of Hormuz, where attacks and threats have pushed traffic toward a de facto halt. Multiple tankers have been damaged in the Gulf, there have been casualties among seafarers, and more than 200 vessels are anchoring outside the strait. Oil majors, traders, and shipowners largely suspended crude, fuel, and LNG movements through Hormuz after Tehran declared navigation closed and IRGC units warned vessels not to transit, prompting industry advisories to avoid the area.

That matters for more than energy. One-third of all global fertilizer flows, including ammonia and sulfur-related cargoes, transit Hormuz, exposing planting seasons and food prices to any sustained disruption. Even partial delays can tighten nearby markets, especially where importers rely on prompt deliveries rather than large strategic stocks.

Sugar is an additional vulnerability because refining capacity is concentrated close to the Gulf. Dubai’s Al Khaleej Sugar is the world’s largest standalone, port-based sugar refinery, making Jebel Ali a critical node for regional supply and re-exports. Iraq also hosts a major industrial refinery, with Etihad Food Industries running a 6,000-metric-tons-per-day (about 6,600 short tons per day) facility in Babylon, one of the region’s biggest by capacity.

For now, the global picture is defined by heavy friction rather than collapse.

If airspace and Hormuz transits stabilize, freight rates may fall back quickly. If attacks persist, the immediate effect will be a jump in transport costs, followed by pressure on oil and refined products, fertilizer availability, and selected food import routes.

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