What you need to know

Diplomacy reopens while U.S. strike force stays poised

Washington has shifted from weighing formal talks to holding substantive indirect contact with Tehran, while keeping its forces ready to resume large-scale strikes. President Donald Trump framed the choice at the UN General Assembly on Sept. 22 as a deal or renewed military action. No new strike campaign has been authorized, so the current lull amounts to a strategic pause rather than a ceasefire.

U.S. officials told Axios that Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered Middle East force levels maintained through the end of 2026. One official conceded the deployment will be hard to sustain indefinitely.

Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent about three hours in mediated talks with Iran's delegation Sept. 22, with the two teams never sitting together.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Trump is open to meeting Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and warned Tehran Sept. 23 not to wait out the U.S. midterms.

The Treasury Department sanctioned the BitBank crypto network Sept. 17 under Operation Economic Outcast.

Unnamed officials describe postwar planning built on containing Iran and expanding Israel–Arab normalization. None of it is announced policy.

Hormuz is now the likeliest trigger

The maritime picture has worsened even as talks advance. At least four merchant ships were hit Sept. 18–23, and no attacker has been identified. U.S. blockade enforcement is expanding, putting military forces into more frequent contact with commercial shipping. A single mass-casualty incident could end the diplomatic opening.

Cape Dao was attacked near Musandam on Sept. 23, and an engine-room fire forced the crew to abandon ship.

LR Stephanie (Sept. 21), Al Maryah (Sept. 20), and an unnamed Marshall Islands tanker (Sept. 18) were also struck, with only minor injuries.

U.S. forces redirected 115 vessels up to Sept. 24. No boardings or seizures were announced this week.

Visible traffic averaged 3.1 transits a day Sept. 14–20, against about 85 before the latest escalation and 125–140 before Feb. 28.

U.S. naval posture holds outside the Gulf

U.S. force disposition is largely unchanged from earlier this month. Combat power is concentrated in the Arabian Sea, outside the confined Persian Gulf, where it can support the blockade and escort shipping. Diego Garcia is emerging as the key rear logistics hub because some closer facilities are disrupted.

Oil eases but carries a war premium

Oil prices dipped Sept. 24 after the previous day's rise but remain well above prewar levels. Brent above $100 a barrel reflects both the disruption at Hormuz and the risk of renewed war. Houthi pressure on Saudi Arabia adds a second chokepoint risk at Bab al-Mandab.

Birthplace of civilization

Israel entrenches in southern Lebanon

Israel is consolidating a network of positions in southern Lebanon, making a quick withdrawal less likely. Its strikes, incursions, and demolitions continue daily, concentrated around Mansouri, Nabatieh Fawqa, Kfar Tibnit, and Deir Mimas. Hezbollah has launched no confirmed rockets, missiles, or drones into Israel since Sept. 18, suggesting both sides prefer a contained fight.

The June framework has stalled over sequencing. Israel wants Hezbollah disarmed first. Lebanon and Hezbollah want Israel out first.

The Rome negotiating round has slipped to October, and a proposal to extend the pilot zone to Ali al-Taher is still unaccepted.

UNIFIL's mandate expires Dec. 31, and no replacement force has been agreed.

____________________

Houthi offensive stalls, but coastal gains hold

The Houthi offensive has shifted from rapid expansion to holding ground. The Houthis keep Mokha, Dhubab, and most of the Red Sea coast they seized Sept. 9–11. Government-aligned forces have stabilized the inland front and retaken key heights. The threat of a push toward Aden has receded, but the offensive's main strategic prize remains intact: a coastline overlooking Bab al-Mandab.

Taiz–Lahj highlands become the decisive front

The key arc runs from southern Taiz through Qarfan and Kahbub to northern Lahj. If government forces hold it, the Houthi coastal strip stays narrow and exposed from the east. If they lose it, the Houthis gain a path to al-Turbah, the Taiz–Aden road, and Aden's northern approaches.

Anti-Houthi forces remain fragmented. They include the Yemeni Armed Forces, Nation's Shield, the Giants Brigades, and tribal units aligned with the Presidential Leadership Council. The Houthis fight under centralized Ansar Allah command.

Nation's Shield and Giants Brigades retook Jabal Kahbub Sept. 17 and repelled counterattacks Sept. 21–22 (the heights sit 25–35 km (16–22 miles) northeast of the Bab al-Mandab coast and overlook the Houthi-held plain).

Government forces halted attacks near Jabal Naman, Jabal Rasin, and Jabal Jirdad, then took Mount Qarfan and Mount Zalat on Sept. 22.

Government forces repelled a major Houthi assault south of Marib, around Harib, Mala'a, and Umm Rish, on Sept. 19–20.

Taiz city holds, but its southern corridor remains vulnerable.

Saudi strikes move deeper behind Houthi lines

Saudi and Saudi-backed airpower is the main brake on further Houthi gains. Several hundred air and missile attacks hit Taiz, Marib, al-Jawf, Saada, and the Mokha coast this week. Targets now extend beyond front-line support to command sites, communications, supply routes, and reinforcements. Riyadh publishes no strike log, so counts rely largely on Houthi claims that may overlap.

Houthi 24-hour counts: 26 (Sept. 18), 28 (Sept. 20), 157 air and missile attacks (Sept. 21), 19 (Sept. 22), and 52 (Sept. 23).

A strike reportedly hit a Houthi headquarters in al-Hazm during a meeting of missile-force and Sixth Military Region commanders.

Houthi authorities say strikes on Mokha killed six civilians, including two children, Sept. 21–22. Saudi Arabia has not acknowledged.

Bab al-Mandab stays open, at higher cost

The Houthis hold the Yemeni coast over the strait's approaches and several Hanish Islands, but not the waterway itself. Djibouti and Eritrea hold the African side, and international navies patrol the corridor. Perim (Mayyun) is contested after reports that the Houthis withdrew Sept. 13 under air attack.

The Houthis do not need Perim to raise the threat. Their coastal positions put missiles, drones, and unmanned boats closer to shipping lanes, a point the U.S. Maritime Administration raised in a Sept. 23 advisory. Safe passage increasingly depends on a ship's affiliation, its operator's risk tolerance, and access to escorts.

About 22–27 observable commercial ships transit daily, against a 10-day average of 26.

Saudi-linked shipping has nearly vanished.

The U.S. advisory flags ships tied to Israel, the U.S., Britain, or Saudi Arabia, and fleets calling at Saudi ports.

EU Operation Aspides escorted Italy's Jolly Oro Sept. 18, and Italy is pressing for a larger naval presence.

Losses far exceed published tallies

An analytical estimate puts military deaths Sept. 17–24 at 400–700 and wounded at 1,000–2,000, excluding civilians. UN figures cited by the World Food Programme on Sept. 21 put deaths in the renewed fighting near 700, well above counts built from news reports. Houthi losses were likely higher, at roughly 1.5–2 deaths per government-aligned death, though that ratio is speculative.

Grinding stalemate is the base case

Most likely scenario: The most likely outcome is a stalemate. The Houthis keep the coast but fail to break through the mountain belt, government forces counterattack locally without retaking Mokha, and Marib holds. Saudi strikes inflict losses without forcing a withdrawal. Bab al-Mandab stays open at 20–30 transits a day, while intermittent Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, with Jeddah most exposed, keep insurance, delay, and supply-chain costs elevated.

Best case: Government forces push west toward al-Wazi'iyah and Mokha. Oman, Egypt, and others broker a limited border and maritime deal, and attacks on Saudi Arabia and the Saudi strike tempo both ease.

Worst case: The mountain front collapses amid coordination failures, exposing al-Turbah, Lahj, and the Taiz–Aden road.

It’s the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

U.S. says China trade truce now runs to Jan. 10

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says Washington and Beijing have agreed to extend their trade truce by two months. The deadline moves from Nov. 10 to Jan. 10, 2027. The extension buys both sides more time to negotiate over tariffs and other trade restrictions rather than face an immediate expiry.

Beijing has yet to confirm

China had not publicly confirmed the extension when Bessent announced it. Until Beijing does, the new deadline rests on Washington's account alone.

Trump–Xi talks become the next test

The announcement comes just ahead of talks in Washington between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Those talks are the likeliest venue for Beijing to confirm the extension and for both leaders to set the tariff agenda before the Jan. 10 deadline.

The new Monroe Doctrine with a Trump Corollary

Venezuela pledges elections without a date

Acting President Delcy Rodríguez told the UN General Assembly on Sept. 23 that Venezuela will hold elections. She said her government has opened talks with opposition groups to secure their participation. She gave no timetable and no details of the electoral guarantees under discussion.

Machado's movement is left out of the talks

The talks are part of the transition that followed Nicolás Maduro's removal in January. Opposition leader María Corina Machado's movement is excluded from the current negotiations. That leaves open whether the vote will include the opposition's most prominent bloc.

Timing and eligibility remain the open questions

Rodríguez's pledge settles neither when Venezuelans will vote nor which opposition groups can compete. Until her government sets a date and spells out its guarantees, the commitment carries no concrete terms.

Pakistan escalates with strikes on 10 Afghan sites

Pakistan struck 10 sites inside Afghanistan on Sept. 24. Islamabad says they were used to launch or store drones aimed at Pakistani targets the day before. Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Pakistani defenses intercepted the drones. The Taliban government denies launching them but confirms Pakistani strikes in Khost and Paktia.

Casualty accounts diverge

Afghan officials first reported no casualties in Khost or Paktia. Taliban government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid later said strikes also hit Kandahar and killed four civilians across the affected provinces. Neither Pakistan's account of the drone sites nor Mujahid's casualty figure has been independently verified.

Second round in a week deepens the cycle

The raids follow Pakistani strikes earlier this week that Islamabad says killed 28 militants. The UN confirmed three civilians died in those attacks. The core dispute is unchanged: Pakistan accuses Kabul of sheltering cross-border militants, and the Taliban government denies it.

Sign up link: https://www.center-of-gravity.info

Inside Track: https://www.center-of-gravity.info/upgrade