What you need to know

India and Pakistan stand on the brink of potential conflict following a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir on Tuesday that killed 26 people.

India has since suspended the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which regulates water-sharing from the Indus River and its tributaries and ordered all Pakistani nationals to leave India.

The halt in water flow will disrupt crop planting, which normally occurs April-May, in Pakistan and may destroy the entire season’s agricultural output. This will cause major economic and social problems in Pakistan. Pakistan has previously said that a halt in the flow of water from India would be an act of war.

In response, Islamabad ordered the expulsion of Indian diplomats and military advisers and canceled the visas of Indian nationals. It has also banned Indian airliners from using Pakistani airspace.

For four consecutive days, India and Pakistan exchanged fire across the border. No casualties on either side have so far been reported.

India accused Pakistan of supporting “cross-border terrorism” and launched a massive manhunt for the alleged attackers. It has posted wanted posters for three of the four individuals—two Pakistanis and one Indian—who it says were involved in the attack and are part of Lashkar-e-Taiba, a United Nations-designated terrorist organization.

Pakistan has accused India of taking steps to punish Pakistan “without any proof, without any investigation.” On Sunday, Islamabad said that an international investigation is needed into the deaths of the 26 men killed in the attack and that it would work with investigators.

India accused Jaish-e-Mohammad, which has ties to Pakistan’s main intelligence agency, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), of staging the attack.

India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir date back to the partition of the subcontinent in 1947. India has prevailed over Pakistan in the three wars they have fought, all concentrated in the Kashmiri border region.

Nevertheless, New Delhi and Islamabad have repeatedly de-escalated tensions over the past decade without conflict spiraling into outright war.

In 2016, militants attacked a remote Indian army base in Uri, near the Line of Control, killing 18 Indian soldiers—the deadliest such attack in decades.

Again in 2019, a suicide attack on an convoy of Indian paramilitary forces killed at least 40 Indian soldiers in Pulwama, in Indian-administered Kashmir. I

Pakistan is currently undergoing a period of political and economic uncertainty, making it unclear whether it is in Islamabad’s best interests to escalate.

Thus far, Pakistan’s rhetoric suggests an effort to calm tensions.

However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely facing internal pressure to escalate in the short term, possibly through airstrikes on Pakistan.

Modi has spoken with dozens of world leaders and appears to be building a case for military action. President Donald Trump condemned the attack but noted that he is friendly with both India and Pakistan. It remains unclear how involved the U.S. will become in efforts to calm tensions. Iran and Saudi Arabia have also reached out to both sides, and the Iranian foreign minister has offered to mediate.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Yesterday late afternoon, Israeli warplanes launched three missiles at a facility that it claimed contained Hezbollah munitions. The attack was preceded by one hour by a warning from the Israeli Defense Forces spokesman that residents should evacuate at least 300 meters from the site. There have been no reports of casualties.

Lebanon’s President, Joseph Aoun, condemned the attack and called on the U.S. and France to restrain Israeli actions.

Both U.S. and Iranian officials have made positive statements about ongoing nuclear talks, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi noted that he remained “extremely cautious” about long-term success.

Over the weekend, Araghchi and President Donald Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff held their third round of indirect talks in Oman through Omani mediators.

Araghchi said the talks were extremely serious and technical, but that significant differences remained. However, he said both sides were serious about reaching a deal.

Trump has also expressed confidence about Washington reaching an agreement with Tehran. New talks are expected to be held on 3 May, likely in Europe.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, a massive explosion at the port of Bandar Abbas killed at least 40 people and wounded hundreds, with eyewitness accounts suggesting that chemicals used for rocket fuel stored in a shipping container caught fire and caused a larger blast.

Previous reports have indicated that hundreds of tons of a critical chemical for fueling Iran’s ballistic missile program had arrived at the port in both February and March. Iranian officials have insisted that the explosion had no connection to Iran’s defense sector.

The Israeli Defense Forces have explicitly denied involvement. But that does not eliminate the possibility that Israeli intelligence agencies were behind the blast. The blast is reminiscent of a campaign in 2019 and 2020 in which scores of weapons storage units in Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon were blown up. No one claimed responsibility for those attacks, but most observers believe Israel was behind them.

Separately, yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a conference of the Jewish News Service that Israel would not accept any deal with Iran that does not eliminate Iran’s nuclear enrichment project and its ballistic missile programs. Israel has consistently not ruled out military action against Iran to prevent it gaining nuclear weapons.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

President Donald Trump urged Russia on Sunday to halt its attacks on Ukraine, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested that the U.S. may withdraw from peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv.

Last week, Washington made proposals on how to end the war, including U.S. recognition of Russia’s control over the Crimean peninsula, seized in 2014, as well as de facto recognition of Russia’s hold on other parts of Ukraine.

Although both Ukrainian and European officials pushed back on these proposals, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with Trump in the Vatican on Tuesday before the funeral of Pope Francis.

Both sides said that the meeting went well, with the White House saying the two leaders had a “productive discussion.” Zelensky commented that the meeting had “the potential to become historic” if it produced results in ending the war.

French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also met with Zelensky and Trump before the funeral.

Any such moves to recognize Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian territory have long been red lines for Ukraine’s leadership and would be extremely unpopular with Ukrainians.

Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, said Trump had expressed frustration at both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Zelensky but remained determined to reach an agreement.

However, this contrasted with Rubio’s comments suggesting that Trump may withdraw if progress is not made. In an interview with U.S. media over the weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said a deal was not imminent but noted that Moscow was “ready for a deal.”

China seizes control of South China Sea outpost near Philippines

Chinese state media reported on Saturday that its coastguard had seized a disputed reef, Sandy Cay, in the South China Sea and claimed sovereignty over it.

The act is likely to increase tensions between Beijing and the Philippines, as both countries have increasingly clashed over the last year regarding disputed shoals and atolls.

The White House responded to the report by stating that the developments were “concerning.”

The U.S. and the Philippines are currently conducting Balikatan, the largest annual military exercises between the two countries, including coastal defense and island seizure drills.

Sandy Cay is 12 nautical miles from Thitu Island, which the Philippines uses to track Chinese movements in the area.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Friday that China should seek to become self-reliant and self-strengthening in the field of artificial intelligence.

Xi made the comments during a Politburo study session and stated that China should use the national system to push the development of AI. He noted that policy support would be provided in areas such as government procurement, intellectual property rights, research, and talent cultivation.

Although the U.S. is considered to be ahead of China in AI development, Beijing is rapidly closing the gap.

In January, the AI startup DeepSeek released an AI reasoning model developed with less advanced chips and at a lower cost than its Western rivals.

The U.S. and China are engaged in serious geopolitical competition in the tech sector, and Washington has imposed export controls on high-tech semiconductors to prevent China from advancing in areas such as AI and weapons development.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo on Friday agreed to sign a peace deal by 2 May and to respect each other’s sovereignty. Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kayikwamba and Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe signed a preliminary deal in Washington, while Secretary of State Marco Rubio signed as a witness. Two days prior to the Washington meeting, Qatar mediated a surprise ceasefire.

Rwanda is believed to support the M23 rebel group, which has undertaken a major offensive in eastern Congo, capturing two major cities in recent months. Rwanda has also deployed its own troops into combat.

A peace agreement between the two sides is expected to lead to U.S. public and private investment in the region, which is rich in minerals including gold and tantalum. Other critical minerals, such as copper, cobalt, and lithium, also exist in large quantities in Congo, which the U.S. is keen to access. Rubio said that U.S. and Western investment would create economic opportunities in the region.