What you need to know

Syrian state media reported that 11 people were killed overnight in clashes in and around Damascus, following the deaths of 14 others on Tuesday. The violence has pitted Druze fighters against gunmen linked to Syrian authorities in the suburb of Jaramana and the town of Ashrafiyet Sahnaya, southeast of the capital.

According to the Ministry of Interior—and corroborated by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (a U.K.-based monitoring group)—the trigger for the unrest was an audio clip that circulated on social media. The recording allegedly features a Druze leader insulting the Prophet Mohammed. The individual accused of making the remarks has denied doing so, claiming the clip was fabricated.

Today, Druze leaders in the southern city of Suwaida mobilized their militias to resist any incursion by government forces.

In Israel, Druze communities staged demonstrations in several locations, urging Israeli support for their Syrian kin. Israeli drones have reportedly been sighted above Damascus, monitoring the clashes. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said today that Israeli forces conducted a ‘warning’ strike against a group of fighters about to launch an attack on the Druze.

In March, hundreds of Alawites were killed in Latakia Governorate on the Mediterranean coast by militants linked to the government, following raids by gunmen associated with the former regime of Bashar Al Assad on forces loyal to the new administration. Reprisal killings, kidnappings, and intimidation of Alawites have been continuing on a daily basis since the March massacres.

On Sunday, Rami Makhlouf—a cousin and former business associate of Assad—announced that he had mobilized 15,000 fighters to oppose the new government. It remains unclear whether this claim reflects reality or mere aspiration.

Syria’s transition remains precarious. Israel controls significant swathes of territory in the west and southwest. Kurdish forces maintain autonomy in the northeast, despite ongoing diplomatic engagement with Damascus. The Alawite community remains restive. Syrian government forces have clashed with Hezbollah-affiliated militias on the Lebanese border. Rebel factions in the south show little appetite for accepting central authority.

The government in Damascus is politically dominated by Hayat Tahrir Al Sham (formerly affiliated with Al Qaeda), led by President Ahmad Al Sharaa. It relies heavily on fighters from the Syrian National Army, a militia backed by Türkiye that operates with considerable autonomy. The U.S. maintains around 2,000 troops in the Kurdish autonomous region, though this is expected to be reduced to roughly 1,000 in the coming months. Meanwhile, more than 50,000 former Islamic State fighters and their relatives remain detained in Al Hol prison, under Kurdish administration.

International and regional actors are eager to stabilize Syria. Sharaa has been welcomed in various Arab capitals and is scheduled to attend the Arab League summit on 17 May in Baghdad. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have offered to help repay Syria’s national debt. The U.K. and the European Union have lifted many of the sanctions previously imposed on Assad’s regime.

Yet Syria’s internal fissures may once again tear the country apart—an outcome that would have grave implications for regional stability, particularly in Lebanon, but also in Iraq and Jordan.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned on Tuesday that the U.S. would withdraw from its mediation role between Ukraine and Russia unless “concrete proposals” were soon presented. Although Rubio has made similar remarks before, President Donald Trump on Tuesday voiced optimism about Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to strike a deal. “I think he does,” Trump said.

Russia has repeatedly failed to engage with U.S. proposals. Even Trump—who has previously extended overtures to Putin—has at times expressed frustration, accusing him of obstinacy. Last week, Trump floated a proposal to formally recognize Russia’s control of Crimea, seized in 2014, but this remains a red line for Ukraine.

At a Security Council meeting on Tuesday, U.S. diplomat John Kelley blamed Russia for the ongoing violence and condemned attacks on civilians. Putin declared a ceasefire from 8–10 May, prompting Ukraine to ask why a longer, 30-day truce could not begin immediately. French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot held Russia responsible for the lack of a ceasefire and accused it of seeking Ukraine’s “capitulation.”

France’s foreign ministry on Tuesday accused Russian military intelligence of orchestrating a series of cyberattacks against the country, including one targeting Emmanuel Macron’s first presidential campaign in 2017. Other attacks reportedly included a breach of TV5 Monde, aimed at “manipulating public opinion” and creating panic in France, including during preparations for the Paris Olympics.

French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said that during Macron’s 2017 campaign, thousands of documents were stolen and leaked online in an effort to influence the electoral process.

The group allegedly targeted France’s defense, financial, and economic sectors, disrupting public services and affecting the daily lives of citizens. Barrot added that such attacks had intensified due to France’s support for Ukraine since 2022.

Japan’s prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said on Tuesday during a visit to the Philippines that Tokyo and Manila would begin talks on a defense pact aimed at strengthening their security alliance.

In a joint statement with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., both leaders expressed opposition to “attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea or the South China Sea by force or coercion.”

Japan and the Philippines have already signed a visiting forces agreement, allowing military personnel to be stationed on each other’s territory. The two leaders also pledged to expand intelligence-sharing.

Tokyo is funding efforts to modernize the Philippine coast guard, which frequently clashes with Chinese vessels in contested waters. Japan is also helping to bolster Manila’s maritime surveillance capabilities.

In addition, the two sides discussed the economic fallout from the U.S.-China trade war and pledged to deepen bilateral cooperation.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

The British Ministry of Defense announced on Tuesday that it had conducted a joint military operation in Yemen with the United States, targeting a Houthi facility used for manufacturing drones and launching attacks on maritime vessels.

The operation involved airstrikes on a compound south of Sana'a, the Yemeni capital, where the Houthis were reportedly building drones and launching attacks against ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.

U.K. defense secretary John Healey cited threats to freedom of navigation and noted that shipping in the Red Sea had fallen by 55%, with losses running into the billions.

The Houthis claim they are targeting ships linked to Israel in solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza. However, Egypt has suffered the most economic damage, due to the drop in revenue from ships transiting the Suez Canal.

Since 15 March, the U.S. has carried out more than 800 strikes in Yemen, escalating a campaign that began under the administration of Joe Biden. On 18 April, a U.S. airstrike killed at least 74 people at the Ras Isa fuel port. On Monday, the Houthis alleged that a U.S. strike on a prison holding African migrants killed 68 people, an incident the U.S. military said it was investigating.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

The landlocked Sahel states of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have endorsed a Moroccan proposal granting them access to the Atlantic Ocean.

The foreign ministers of the three countries met with King Mohammed VI of Morocco in Rabat.

Following their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) last year and the formation of their own bloc—the Confederation of Sahel States (AES)—the prospect of maritime access has assumed strategic and economic importance.

Morocco first extended the offer in December 2023, after ECOWAS imposed trade restrictions in response to military takeovers in the Sahel states. Mali’s foreign minister, Abdoulaye Diop, described the initiative as conducive to “diversifying our access to the sea.”

The meeting comes amid rising tensions between the AES and Algeria, a regional rival of Rabat. Algeria recently downed a Malian drone that had entered its airspace. All three Sahel states continue to battle entrenched Islamist insurgencies, which have intensified since the expulsion of French forces in 2023.