What you need to know

The United States and Ukraine signed an economic partnership agreement on Wednesday granting Washington access to critical minerals in Ukrainian territory. The accord, signed in Washington by Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, will also establish a “reconstruction investment fund” for Ukraine.

The agreement has been touted by President Donald Trump as a mechanism for Kyiv to repay U.S. support provided since the outbreak of war. While the pact has been in development for months, disagreements over its scope, as well as a public clash between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Trump in February, caused repeated delays.

Although it does not include explicit security guarantees, Ukrainian officials have framed the deal as a way to anchor long-term American support. In a post on X, Svyrydenko said the fund would “attract global investment into our country.” Treasury secretary Scott Bessent said the agreement demonstrated America’s commitment to ending “this cruel and senseless war.”

Svyrydenko emphasized that Ukraine would retain full ownership and control of its resources, both on land and in its territorial waters. She said that the agreement did not include any acknowledgement of Ukrainian debt for previous U.S. military support. She said decisions on what natural resources to extract and the profit share would follow a “50/50” structure, which would require unanimous agreement between the parties. Trump added that an American presence on the ground would help deter malign actors. “The American presence will, I think, keep a lot of bad actors out of the country—or certainly out of the area where we’re doing the digging,” he said.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Pakistan warns of imminent Indian military action

Pakistan said on Wednesday that it had credible intelligence suggesting India was preparing to launch an attack within “24 to 36 hours.” It claimed any such action would be based on fabricated allegations that Islamabad orchestrated a deadly assault on civilians in the disputed region of Kashmir last week.

India has not formally indicated that military action is imminent. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to punish and pursue the perpetrators. India has also cut off water flows into Pakistan, which is a violation of a 1960 water use treaty and threatens the viability of Pakistan’s agricultural sector at a critical harvest time.

While responsibility for the assault remains unclear, the attackers were almost certainly Kashmiri separatists. The region, split between Pakistan and India, has long been a flashpoint for conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors. Many residents of the Indian-administered zone favor independence from New Delhi. Pakistan has historically supported separatist groups but denied involvement in the latest attack and has called for an independent inquiry. India has yet to present evidence implicating Pakistan. Border skirmishes involving small arms fire have continued for six consecutive days.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

The Philippines and New Zealand signed a defense agreement on Wednesday allowing for joint military exercises. New Zealand’s defense minister signed the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement with her Philippine counterpart, Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro Jr.

Manila has been strengthening its security ties across the region in response to China’s increasingly assertive behavior in the South China Sea. Coast guard confrontations between China and the Philippines over contested reefs and shoals have escalated over the past year.

In July, the Philippines signed a similar pact with Japan. It also has visiting forces agreements with Australia and a mutual defense treaty with the U.S.

New Zealand, which has traditionally remained neutral in regional disputes, has grown more wary of China’s intentions. In February, Beijing startled Wellington and Canberra by conducting live-fire naval drills in the Tasman Sea without prior warning.

Australia signals intent to boost defense autonomy

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese told the National Press Club in Canberra on Wednesday that the country must be capable of defending itself.

Under the previous administration of Joe Biden, Australia deepened its alliance with the United States, notably through AUKUS—a nuclear technology-sharing pact that will in theory eventually provide Canberra with nuclear-powered submarines.

Debate has intensified over whether Australia should increase self-reliance in defense, amid concerns that the U.S. may no longer be the steadfast ally it once was. Despite Donald Trump’s skepticism of traditional American alliances, Australia remains central to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China.

Unlike many U.S. allies, Australia has not been chastised for underinvestment in defense. Nonetheless, Albanese said his government aimed to strengthen national defense capabilities.

His Labor Party, narrowly projected to win federal elections on 3 May, has pledged AUD$50 billion ($32 billion) in defense spending over the next decade.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Wednesday that, despite believing that the United Kingdom, France, and Germany had pursued “wrong policies” on its nuclear program, Iranian officials were ready to meet with them. Talks are scheduled in Rome on Friday, one day before Tehran resumes negotiations with the United States.

Araghchi remarked that European influence in Iran had waned due to their approach—likely a reference to sanctions imposed on Iran. On Monday, France stated that it, along with Germany and the UK, would reimpose full sanctions should Iran’s nuclear activities threaten European security.

Relations between Iran and Europe have deteriorated over the past year, largely because of Tehran’s military support for Russia and its missile development. On Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed new sanctions on a network operating in Iran and China accused of procuring components for ballistic missile propellants for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

A national political conference held in Mali and orchestrated by the ruling military junta recommended on Tuesday that General Assimi Goïta be formally installed as president for a five-year term. Goïta, who seized power in coups in 2020 and 2021, already functions as the country’s de facto leader. The move would formalize and entrench his authority.

Participants also recommended dissolving opposition political parties and abolishing the office of opposition leader. Opposition groups boycotted the event, denouncing the junta’s repression.

The military regime had previously promised to return to civilian rule but delayed elections. Mali, along with Burkina Faso and Niger, has experienced multiple coups in recent years. Both Mali and Niger expelled French forces combating Islamist insurgents, replacing them with Russian mercenaries. Since then, the insurgencies have grown more severe.