What you need to know

President Donald Trump dismissed his National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, on Thursday after weeks of speculation regarding his position.

Waltz had been under intense pressure since the ‘Signalgate’ scandal in mid-March, when it became clear that he was in contact with a senior journalist via the encrypted messaging service, Signal.

Separately, there is a growing rift between MAGA loyalists in the administration and those that are seen as legacy Republican Neocons.

The added dimension to this rift inside the administration is a determination by the MAGA loyalists to ‘make deals’ and leverage business opportunities, rather than use military force, to resolve international issues.

Waltz will be replaced on an interim basis by Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Trump announced that he would nominate Waltz to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations—a role that retains some prominence but carries less influence. Moreover, after the Signalgate affair, Waltz will face heavy scrutiny during Senate confirmation. Deputy National Security Advisor Alex Wong has also been fired.

Following a White House meeting last month with far-right influencer Laura Loomer, Trump dismissed the head of the National Security Agency intelligence agency. In that same meeting, he reportedly voiced concern about Waltz’s loyalty to the MAGA movement. Loomer is claiming credit for Walt’s removal, though it’s unclear whether he advice really did lead to his downfall.

Rubio will continue serving as Secretary of State while temporarily assuming the role of National Security Advisor—an unusual arrangement that last occurred under Presidents Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford, when Henry Kissinger held both posts.

The National Security Advisor coordinates policy across departments and arbitrates disputes among agencies, including the State Department. Rubio is not expected to remain permanently in both roles.

Steven Miller, a senior White House advisor, has been floated as a potential permanent replacement as National Security Advisor, though it’s too early to start making bets on who will replace Waltz.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the foreign ministers of India and Pakistan on Wednesday in an effort to de-escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed rivals.

Soldiers from both countries have exchanged small-arms fire almost daily along the Line of Control in Kashmir over the past week, though no casualties have been confirmed.

Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar stated that India wants those responsible for last week’s terrorist attack—which killed 26 people—brought to justice. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Shehbaz Sharif urged the U.S. to pressure India to “dial down the rhetoric and act responsibly.” Islamabad has denied involvement in the attack, which was carried out by Kashmiri separatists, and has called for an independent investigation.

Earlier this week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told military leaders they had the freedom to determine New Delhi’s response. Pakistan has since assessed that India is likely to pursue kinetic options against Pakistan.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Wednesday that proposals by Kurdish groups in Syria for a decentralized system of government were a “dream” that would not materialize.

Syrian Kurdish factions, including the dominant Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in the northeast, recently agreed on a unified political vision for Kurds in Syria, though they did not explicitly call for decentralization. Nonetheless, such a system has long been an ambition of Kurdish political groups.

The proposal has been rejected by both the government in Damascus and a coalition of Islamist groups aligned with Ankara.

Erdogan argued that decentralization would destabilize the region.

Notably, however, Erdogan did not refer to the Kurdish groups in northeast Syria as terrorists—language frequently used by Turkish officials to describe the SDF and its ally, the Türkiye, Syria, and Iraq-based Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Türkiye and its Syrian allies have not attacked the group for over a month, in line with an undeclared ceasefire reportedly brokered by the Pentagon. In March, the SDF reached an agreement with Damascus to integrate Kurdish-led administrative structures with the central government’s security forces, though no concrete measures have yet been taken to make this a reality.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Iran on Wednesday against supporting the Houthis in Yemen, stating that Washington would hold Tehran responsible for any attacks carried out by the group.

Although Hegseth did not mention the incident directly, earlier this week the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier was forced to make an evasive maneuver after the Houthis launched an attack against it. The incident caused an F-18 Super Hornet fighter aircraft to fall into the Red Sea. According to the Navy, the plane fell overboard and was subsequently lost.

While the Houthis have not claimed responsibility for this particular event, they have said in recent weeks that they have attacked the aircraft carrier as well as merchant vessels.

The Houthis, who control northern Yemen—including the capital, Sanaa—have been attacking ships in the Red Sea since late 2023 in a show of solidarity with the Palestinians.

Iran insists the group acts independently, though it has supplied the Houthis with weapons, training, and intelligence and is recognized as part of Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’.

The rising tensions come amid faltering nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington.

Iranian Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad al-Busaidi announced on Thursday that nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran had been postponed for “logistical reasons.”

However, earlier in the day, Tehran accused the U.S. of “contradictory behavior and provocative statements.”

The remarks coincided with Washington’s warning against support for the Houthis and the imposition of new sanctions on seven entities allegedly involved in trading Iranian oil products, said to finance terrorist groups and proxies.

The U.S. also sanctioned a network based in Iran and China accused of procuring ballistic missile propellants for the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Nevertheless, Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said that Tehran remained committed to engaging “seriously and resolutely” in nuclear negotiations with America.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Nigeria this week appointed a new commander to lead the fight against a resurgent Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast of the country, where large numbers of civilians and soldiers have been killed in recent weeks.

Although Boko Haram’s operations had slowed in recent years—partly due to infighting and a split with the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a breakaway faction that pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in 2016—both groups have recently intensified their attacks.

Borno state governor Babagana Zulum said the insurgents were gaining ground, facing little resistance from the military. Some analysts argue that a reduction in internal rivalries and improved access to technologies, including drones, has contributed to the resurgence.

The insurgency is particularly difficult to counter because it spans four countries—Cameroon, Chad, Niger, and Nigeria—in a region known as the “Timbuktu triangle.”