What you need to know

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday, following a meeting with Czech President Petr Pavel, that a ceasefire with Russia was possible at any moment. However, he added that Kyiv’s Western allies would need to continue increasing pressure on Moscow to compel it to take meaningful steps to end the war.

Russian President Vladimir Putin last week proposed a three-day ceasefire for 8–10 May, coinciding with the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in the Second World War.

Zelensky questioned why the ceasefire could not start immediately and last longer.

Zelensky has also said that he ‘could not guarantee’ the safety of foreign dignitaries attending Russia’s Victory Day celebrations. Since then, the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Defense Minister have announced they will not attend. The President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, has said that he might be ‘late’ and may miss the parade. Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vučić will not be able to attend for health reasons. And the EU has warned its member states against attending.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Zelensky said that his recent conversation with President Donald Trump in the Vatican had been their “best” yet. He said they discussed additional U.S. sanctions on Russia and expanded support for Kyiv’s air defenses. He described Trump’s comments on these matters as “very strong,” though he did not clarify what was meant.

Still, it was a significant indication that Trump is likely to maintain Washington’s robust support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion. Initially, Trump had made statements that appeared to pro-Russian. It now seems he has shifted his stance more in line with that of Ukraine.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

Germany’s Alternative for Germany party (AfD) has been designated as a far-right extremist organization by the country’s domestic intelligence service, a move the party condemned as a “blow against democracy.” The AfD, now Germany’s largest opposition party, is currently polling first in several national surveys following a strong performance in this year’s federal elections. The ruling could pave the way for parliament to limit the group’s public funding and allow the intelligence agency to monitor and intercept its communications.

The decision comes as Friedrich Merz is set to be sworn in as Germany’s new chancellor amid heated debate over how to address the AfD’s role in the Bundestag. Some of Merz’s allies have urged that the AfD be treated as a normal opposition party, arguing that doing so would reduce its appeal as a martyr-like force operating underground. However, most established parties—including many conservatives—have rejected this approach and have pledged to block the party from chairing parliamentary committees. Outgoing Socialist Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged caution in outlawing the AfD, calling for a measured assessment of the decision.

U.S. billionaire and key ally of President Donald Trump, Elon Musk, supported the AfD in recent elections and said banning the party would amount to an “extreme attack on democracy.” Secretary of State Marco Rubio has urged Germany to reverse course on this matter.

The hard-right nationalist candidate George Simion won the first round of Romania’s presidential election on Sunday, securing 41% of the vote. Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan came in second with 21%.

This election is effectively a repeat of last year’s vote, which was annulled by Romania’s Constitutional Court following the victory of another hard-right figure, Călin Georgescu. Georgescu was indicted in February for illegal campaigning and for founding an organization deemed to have “a fascist, racist or xenophobic character.”

Though barred from running this year, Georgescu voted alongside Simion on Sunday. Both men have voiced hostility toward the European Union and military assistance for Ukraine, and have expressed broadly pro-Kremlin views.

Simion, however, is a far more prominent and predictable candidate than Georgescu, who had emerged from obscurity during the previous election.

Last year’s annulment triggered street protests across Romania, as well as remarks by Vice President J.D. Vance, who claimed that Europe was in “retreat” from democracy and fearful of its own citizens.

A Simion victory in the second round, though not guaranteed, could shift the regional balance of power, bringing Romania into alignment with Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico in their pro-Russia posture.

Romania remains a member of both NATO and the European Union.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israeli army chief Eyal Zamir announced that tens of thousands of reservists would be mobilized to support an expanded military campaign in Gaza, to include a long term occupation. His statement followed remarks by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who vowed to continue the war despite ongoing domestic discontent.

Zamir reiterated long-standing Israeli objectives: the defeat of Hamas and the total dismantlement of the group’s infrastructure, “above and below ground.” Three Israel Defense Forces divisions are currently operating in Gaza. Officials have been warning that, unless a deal is reached soon with Hamas for the release of all hostages, operations will intensify. Israeli media reported on Sunday that the military plan includes the evacuation of civilians from northern and central Gaza in preparation for a broader offensive.

The Israeli government has now this morning announced that it intends to re-occupy Gaza, which it left in 2005, unless a comprehensive deal is reached which will include the release of all hostages, before the upcoming visit of President Donald Trump to the Middle East.

Israel walked away from the last ceasefire agreement intended to secure some hostage releases in late March, and, has since imposed a food blockade on Gaza.

The United Nations stated last week that food stocks in Gaza had nearly been exhausted and that access to clean water was virtually nonexistent.

On Sunday, Israel said it would retaliate against both the Houthis and Iran after a missile launched by the Yemeni group struck near Ben Gurion Airport, the country’s primary international gateway. Although no fatalities were reported, four people were injured and the missile left a large crater in an adjacent car park about 75 meters from Terminal 3.

Netanyahu pledged that Israel would exact retribution against both the Houthis and Iran. The Houthis have fired numerous missiles at Israel since the war began in late 2023, most of which have been intercepted.

There is well-founded speculation that Israel may have begun secret strikes on targets inside Iran. On 26 April, a massive explosion struck the Port of Shahid Rajaee in the Iranian city of Bandar Abbas, killing at least 25 people and injuring hundreds. Reports suggested the port had recently received shipments of missile fuel linked to Tehran’s ballistic missile program.

From mid-2019 to late 2020 a series of mysterious explosions targeting munitions stockpiles linked to Iran’s Axis of Resistance militia groups occurred in Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon. No one has ever claimed responsibility, but it is likely that Israel was involved.

Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone signed a 50-year concession agreement with Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports) on Sunday to establish a 20-square-kilometer logistics and industrial zone east of Port Said.

Under the agreement, AD Ports will develop, finance, build, and operate the site, investing $120 million in development and feasibility studies. The area is set to be developed over three years.

AD Ports has signed a string of investment deals in recent years involving Egypt’s maritime and logistics infrastructure. These include the acquisition of shipping firms Transmar, TCI, and Safina B.V., as well as long-term agreements to develop and operate cruise terminals at the Red Sea ports of Safari, Hurghada, Ain Sokhna, and Sharm El Sheikh.

In February last year, Egypt signed a $35 billion agreement with the government of the United Arab Emirates to develop a section of its northern Mediterranean coast. The deal was concluded with ADQ, one of Abu Dhabi’s three sovereign investment funds.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said that the project could eventually draw as much as $150 billion in investment.

Since 2013, Abu Dhabi has played an instrumental role in supporting Egypt, particularly by bolstering its declining economy through large loans and direct investment.

The center-left Australian Labor Party won a resounding victory in federal elections on Saturday, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese set to begin a second term. It is the first time that Labor has secured consecutive terms in more than 20 years, while the center-right Liberal Party recorded its worst result in over eight decades. Although domestic concerns such as housing supply and the rising cost of living played a major role in the vote, opposition leader Peter Dutton’s proposals—such as cutting public services—fared poorly with the electorate. His plans were likened in the Australian media to those of President Donald Trump and his ally Elon Musk, both of whom have advocated for sweeping reductions in the public sector under initiatives such as the Department of Government Efficiency.

Australian voters had grown increasingly wary of Trump’s global tariff policies and their potential to harm key Australian exports, such as steel and beef, to the U.S. Albanese spoke with Trump on Monday and described the conversation as “very warm.” Trump, for his part, said “I’m very friendly with” Albanese and that “he’s very good.”

Unlike many other U.S. allies, Australia has largely avoided Trump’s ire, particularly over defense spending. Moreover, the 10 percent tariff on Australian imports to the U.S. remains relatively low compared with those applied to other countries. Australia continues to play a central role in the U.S. grand strategy for the Indo-Pacific, especially in efforts to contain China.