What you need to know

Israel has made clear that unless a comprehensive agreement to end the war and release the hostages is reached by the end of the upcoming visit to the Middle East of U.S. President Donald Trump (dates still to be announced), it will proceed with a full reoccupation of the Gaza Strip. This will required a sustained counterinsurgency campaign involving at least 20-25 combat brigades.

A significant military buildup is underway in southern Israel as tens of thousands of reservists are mobilized. Over the past six weeks—following the Israeli withdrawal from the two-month ceasefire on 18 March—military forces have expanded their presence in the buffer zone separating Gaza from Israeli territory. Urban structures and vegetation have been cleared to widen control, and advances have resumed along strategic axes, including the Netzarim Corridor.

This represents the largest troop call-up in over a year. With the threat of Hezbollah from Lebanon largely suppressed and the West Bank under control, personnel are being redirected to reinforce operations in Gaza.

Estimates indicate that Hamas in Gaza has suffered catastrophic losses. Of its estimated 30,000 trained fighters in late 2023, roughly 21,000 are believed to have been killed, over 4,000 captured, and thousands more incapacitated. Reports of mass recruitment drives should be viewed with skepticism; even if numerically accurate, these new recruits are unlikely to be trained or equipped for sustained combat. Supply routes into Gaza have remained blocked for over 19 months, leaving the militant infrastructure critically strained.

Public sentiment within Gaza has soured and there have been major protests against Hamas over the past month. A growing segment of the population is, according to Israeli reports, providing actionable intelligence in exchange for financial incentives or relocation offers.

Desire to emigrate from Gaza is reportedly, and understandably, widespread. A steady, low-profile outflow has been observed via Ramon Airport and Jordanian crossings. At least 100,000 people, and perhaps as many as 200,000, have left for Egypt since the beginning of the conflict, and several thousand have been flown to Europe in recent weeks under an Israeli plan to offer incentives to Palestinians to leave.

The current focus of operations is a corridor bearing the name of a former settlement along the southern coastal axis. It now appears intended to mark the eastern boundary of a new buffer zone reaching the Egyptian frontier—comprising approximately 10% of Gaza’s territory.

Gaza will be compartmentalized in accordance with classic counterinsurgency tactics (see our recent publication on counterinsurgency here).

As territorial segmentation proceeds and secured areas emerge as part of a sustained counterinsurgency campaign, consideration will need to be given to post-conflict governance. The likeliest outcome is a patchwork of demilitarized, self-governing urban zones, interspersed and encircled by security perimeters and supervised by Israeli military authorities. The current Israeli administration is unlikely to accept the return of the Palestinian Authority to Gaza, and the Trump administration has not been pressuring it to do so.

Move fast and break things

President Donald Trump has imposed sweeping new limits on U.S.-backed biological research, suspending federal funding for “dangerous gain-of-function” studies abroad and initiating a wholesale overhaul of national oversight systems.

Signed on 5 May, the executive order instructs federal agencies to end support for life sciences projects in countries deemed security risks—such as China—and to tighten controls on sensitive work conducted within American borders, regardless of funding source.

Sections 4–8 of the order amount to a ban on U.S. gain-of-function research involving potential pandemic pathogens until at least 20 January 2029.

Gain-of-function research, which involves altering pathogens to increase their transmissibility or lethality in order to better anticipate and combat pandemics, has long divided scientists and policymakers.

The rules will apply not only to publicly funded work. Within six months, the Office of Science and Technology Policy must issue a national strategy for overseeing dangerous privately financed research.

The implications for the biotech sector are substantial. Officials argue the new rules will enshrine “commonsense frameworks” while sustaining U.S. leadership in the life sciences. Many researchers, however, are likely to see the move as heavy-handed. The revised contracts will contain clauses mandating compliance with American standards, and breaches (such as collaborations with underqualified foreign laboratories) could trigger bans on public funding for up to five years.

The order reflects mounting global anxiety about the darker side of biological innovation. Europe, too, has moved to tighten its controls in recent years. But the Trump administration’s approach stands out for its sweeping scope.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

At a conference held on Monday at the Sorbonne in Paris, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a plan to attract American researchers to Europe, amid funding cuts by the Trump administration.

Von der Leyen announced that the European Union would launch a €500 million incentives package to make the bloc a “magnet for researchers.”

Since President Donald Trump took office this year, his administration has moved to cut funding to scientific agencies and freeze federal research grants, especially in fields such as climate science and vaccine development. Many of his allies view academia as politically biased and are skeptical of climate change.

At the event—dubbed “Choose Europe for Science”—Macron said the U.S. was undermining its own scientific base. The European Commission plans to double research grants for foreign scientists relocating to the bloc. France had already announced a national plan to attract researchers, but it was on Monday that Macron disclosed specific funding measures, including a $113 million national program. He said he hoped to make Europe a “refuge” for scientific inquiry. While the U.S. government still spends vastly more—about $200 billion annually—on research and development, the European initiative may appeal to specialists in affected disciplines.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Chinese President Xi Jinping is set to visit Moscow from 7–10 May, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day parade on Friday. The timing is geopolitically fraught. Russia faces mounting pressure from the U.S. to agree to a durable ceasefire in Ukraine, while China remains locked in a grinding trade war and gradual economic decoupling with Washington.

Xi and Putin have met over 40 times in the past two decades, forging what both call a strategic partnership—though one in which Beijing is clearly the senior partner.

Although China has formally declared neutrality, it has tacitly supported Moscow—exporting dual-use technologies and purchasing discounted Russian oil, thereby sustaining the Kremlin’s war economy. This has deepened mistrust in Europe and drawn stern criticism from the U.S. Even so, Beijing judges that a weakened, dependent Russia and a fragmented Europe—especially one at odds with Washington—serve its long-term interests.

The Philippines said on Monday that it had deployed its coastguard to challenge a Chinese vessel conducting unauthorized maritime research within its exclusive economic zone.

The incident is the latest in a string of confrontations between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea, where the two countries have repeatedly clashed over shoals and atolls.

Many of the contested sites, such as Scarborough Shoal, lie well within the Philippines’ maritime boundaries. China, however, claims nearly the entire South China Sea and remains in dispute with several of its littoral neighbors.

Last week, the coastguards of both countries staged a symbolic display by raising their respective flags on Sandy Cay, a cluster of uninhabited sandbars near the Spratly Islands. Sandy Cay holds particular strategic value owing to its proximity to a Filipino military outpost.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Pakistan’s military said on Monday that it had test-fired a missile with a range of 120 kilometers (75 miles). It was the second such launch in two days and comes amid heightened tensions with India following a terrorist attack in the contested Kashmir region two weeks ago. A military statement said the test was meant to ensure the “operational readiness of troops” and to assess the effectiveness of advanced missile systems. Saturday’s earlier test involved a surface-to-surface ballistic missile with a range of 450 kilometers (280 miles).

On Friday, Chief of the Army Staff General Syed Asim Munir held a meeting with senior commanders to discuss the standoff with India, declaring that the army was “ready on all fronts.” Last week, Minister of Information Attaullah Tarar said that Islamabad had credible intelligence of an imminent Indian military strike, though none has yet materialized.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Counter-terrorism police in the United Kingdom on Monday extended the detention of seven Iranian nationals arrested on Saturday as part of two separate investigations. Authorities suspect a plot to target specific premises, though the locations have not been disclosed. Commander Dominic Murphy of the Metropolitan Police’s Counter Terrorism Command described the investigation as “highly complex” and said further searches were under way.

The United Kingdom has stepped up scrutiny of Iran in recent years. Last year, the head of the domestic intelligence agency MI5 said officers had disrupted 20 Iran-linked plots, most of them targeting Iranian dissidents rather than British nationals. The nature of the suspected targets in the current investigation remains unclear. Minister of the Interior Yvette Cooper said the two counter-terror operations represented “some of the most significant counter-state threats in years.” The arrests occurred in London, Manchester, and Swindon. MI5 was involved in the operations, as is customary in counter-espionage matters.

America First

Rwanda to receive migrants from U.S. according to foreign minister

Rwandan Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation Olivier J.P. Nduhungirehe said on Sunday that his government is in talks with the United States about hosting deported migrants. He told local television that discussions were “still in the early stages” and no agreement had yet been finalized.

The Trump administration has made deportation of illegal migrants a centerpiece of its policy agenda.

The pace of removals, however, remains slower than during the administration of Joe Biden over a comparable time period, partly because less migrants are now crossing the southern border.

Trump has claimed that many of the migrants are criminals or gang-affiliated, though a significant number have no known criminal record. Multiple court orders have attempted to block or delay elements of the deportation campaign. The process is also costly, estimated at around $17,000 per person. Trump has advocated for voluntary “self-deportation” and is seeking new mechanisms to accelerate removals.

His immigration advisor Tom Homan said on Monday that the administration was pursuing agreements with third countries to accept deportees, though he did not explicitly name Rwanda. In 2022, the United Kingdom signed a deal with Kigali to receive asylum seekers in exchange for financial assistance.