What you need to know

India strikes targets in Pakistan as tensions escalate

India has launched a series of airstrikes on Pakistan, including in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, with Islamabad claiming that 26 people were killed and that it had shot down five Indian fighter jets (Russian and French models). India also struck targets in Punjab province, marking the first such operation there in decades. The strikes were accompanied by heavy shelling and gunfire across the Kashmir border.

Wreckage from at least three Indian military jets crashed on Indian territory have appeared in the media. But almost as soon as the pictures appeared, the Indian mainstream media started removing stories about the downed military aircraft, probably as a result of a D-Notice (a national security censorship notice used in Commonwealth countries) issued in late April by the Indian government.

New Delhi stated that it targeted "terrorist infrastructure" rather than military facilities. Pakistan denied that militant sites were hit, though independent verification of either side’s claims has not been possible.

The strikes follow a deadly terrorist attack two weeks ago in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 Indians. New Delhi has blamed Pakistan-backed militants.

Since the April attack, Indian security forces have razed the homes of suspected militants and their families in Kashmir and detained hundreds for questioning. Pakistan responded by closing its airspace to Indian carriers—a move India mirrored. Pakistani forces apprehended an Indian border guard who had inadvertently crossed the frontier. India has expelled Pakistani nationals and reduced staffing levels at Pakistan’s diplomatic mission. New Delhi has also suspended a vital water-sharing accord brokered by the World Bank in 1960.

Both India and Pakistan claim the entirety of Kashmir, though each governs only a portion. The most recent large-scale clash occurred in 2019, when a suicide bomber killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel in Kashmir. India responded with airstrikes across the border. Pakistan shot down a fighter jet and captured its pilot. Months later, India revoked the special constitutional status that had granted Indian-administered Kashmir (its only Muslim-majority state) greater autonomy than the rest of the country. In the aftermath, thousands were detained under a sweeping crackdown.

Both India and Pakistan hold about 170 nuclear weapons each.

After decades of close military ties between the U.S. and Pakistan, the U.S. has been moving closer to India. This process began under the Biden administration but is now accelerating under the Trump administration. Pakistan has always had close ties with China, which the U.S. exploited in the 1970s to split China away from the USSR.

Move fast and break things

Defense Secretary Hegseth cuts senior military ranks

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Monday ordered a 20% reduction in the number of four-star officers in the U.S. military and a 10% cut in general officers overall. Hegseth said the move would reinforce the military’s position as “the most lethal fighting force in the world.” He did not, however, explain how trimming senior leadership would improve operational effectiveness.

Hegseth has previously removed senior officers, including General Charles Q. Brown Jr, former chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; Admiral Lisa Franchetti, the first woman to command the navy; and Vice Admiral Shoshana Chatfield, formerly the U.S. military’s representative to NATO. None are currently in active service.

Senator Jack Reed of Rhode Island voiced skepticism over the plan and noted that previous dismissals appeared to lack justification. The specific positions to be eliminated have not been disclosed. Hegseth’s own future at the Pentagon has grown uncertain following revelations that he started a group chat on Signal that disclosed the flight sequencing for U.S. strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen, and the White House is now reporting that Hegseth unilaterally cut aid to Ukraine without orders from the President.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

Poland accuses Russia of election interference

Polish Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski warned on Wednesday that Russia is attempting to interfere in Poland’s presidential election, set for 18 May. Speaking at a defense conference, Gawkowski said the effort combines disinformation campaigns with hybrid attacks targeting critical infrastructure in order to “paralyze the normal functioning of the state.”

Poland has become a consistent target of Russian sabotage, largely because it serves as a major conduit for Western military aid to Ukraine. Russia has denied any involvement. Gawkowski said water and sewage systems, along with power and heating plants, have been among the targets.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Egypt and China deepen military ties with joint air drills

Joint military exercises between Egypt and China concluded on Sunday as fighter jets from both countries conducted coordinated flyovers above Cairo and the Pyramids of Giza.

The exercises, which began in mid-April, featured joint aerial maneuvers, simulated air combat, and lectures on modern warfare. China’s military described the drills as a sign of deepening defense ties and evolving strategic alignments.

Chinese state media dubbed the exercises Eagles of Civilisation 2025 and portrayed them as evidence of Egypt’s willingness to look beyond its traditional defense partner, the United States, in search of new security collaborators.

Egypt receives $1.3 billion annually in military assistance from Washington—part of the Camp David accords signed with Israel in 1979. Cairo has long been a significant security partner of the U.S. and a major recipient of American weaponry.

Nonetheless, Egypt has also preserved longstanding ties with Russia, dating back to the Soviet era, and has expanded its security cooperation with Moscow over the past decade. At times, it has leveraged that relationship in response to U.S. threats to suspend military aid due to Egypt’s persistent human rights violations.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi enjoys cordial relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who famously presented him with a golden AK-47 during a 2015 visit to Cairo. China, too, has sought to cultivate closer ties with Egypt, and these military exercises likely serve in part as a showroom for Chinese defense technology aimed at Middle Eastern governments.

A fundamental strategic pivot by Egypt towards China, however, remains improbable.

El-Sisi, a former general, leads a regime sustained by the military, the dominant institution in Egyptian politics, which places high value on American technological and financial support. Despite occasional public tensions, Cairo’s security and intelligence services also maintain strong operational links with Israel.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Iran and U.S. expected to resume talks in Oman

Iranian state media have reported that Iran and the U.S. are likely to hold a fourth round of nuclear-related talks this weekend in Muscat, the capital of Oman. The talks, initially set for 3 May in Rome, were postponed for “logistical reasons,” according to an Omani mediator.

Since President Donald Trump took office, Tehran has come under sustained U.S. pressure to agree to a new nuclear deal. Although initially resistant, Iran has since entered negotiations, likely due in part to what appeared to be a credible threat of U.S. military action if talks collapsed.

Last week, a blast at the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas killed 26 people. Authorities have offered no official explanation, but Israeli sabotage is a plausible theory. On Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the nuclear talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Masoud Pezeshkian and offered to help facilitate dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

On Monday, a senior U.S. official told American media that Washington now demands “full dismantlement” of Iran’s nuclear program—a shift from the prior objective of simply preventing weapons acquisition. Tehran maintains it does not seek nuclear arms but insists it will not accept total dismantlement.

The planet will be fine, it’s the humans who should be worried

Spanish nuclear lobby calls for rethink of phase-out after blackout

Ignacio Araluce, head of Spain’s nuclear energy lobby group Foro Nuclear, called on Tuesday for a reconsideration of the country’s nuclear phase-out plan following a major power outage that left much of the country in the dark for a full day. Spain plans to decommission all nuclear plants by 2035, but the blackout on 28 April has revived debate over the decision.

Spain currently operates five nuclear plants with seven reactors, supplying around 20% of national electricity. Renewables (primarily solar and wind) now provide up to 66%, putting Spain among the global leaders in green energy.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, leader of the right-wing Popular Party, said the blackout demonstrated the need for nuclear power as backup and accused the government of managing energy policy with “enormous ideological bias.” The far-right Vox party also supports nuclear energy.

Hours after the outage, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dismissed the criticism, insisting that renewables were not to blame. He said those attributing the problem to a lack of nuclear power were “either lying or revealing their ignorance.” He added that Spain’s nuclear plants are currently operating far below capacity and are increasingly uneconomical compared to renewables.