What you need to know

U.S., Iran seek to mediate between India and Pakistan

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he hoped the tit-for-tat fighting between India and Pakistan would “stop now” and pledged to do anything to help.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio was also in touch with his counterparts in both countries following the strikes, which Islamabad claims killed 31 people in Pakistan. Officials in New Delhi stated that 12 civilians were killed in Indian-administered Kashmir due to Pakistani shelling.

Pakistan also says it downed five Indian fighter jets. Indian and Pakistani warplanes were reportedly engaged in a prolonged “dogfight” on Wednesday morning, though neither side’s aircraft crossed into the other’s airspace.

On Wednesday night and through to the early hours of this morning, India launched over a hundred drones at Pakistan, which appear to be Israeli-made. There are no confirmed reports of casualties yet, and Pakistan has claimed to have shot down many of them.

Al Qaeda’s branch in South Asia has called on its followers throughout the region to attack targets connected to India, threatening a further regional escalation of the conflict.

Trading was halted temporarily on Thursday morning on the Pakistan stock exchange after a 7% drop. Indian stocks also saw a much smaller drop in value.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is scheduled to arrive in New Delhi today to meet Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar. Indian media outlets have speculated that Araghchi may be relaying a message from Islamabad. However, the effectiveness of any Iranian diplomacy at this stage remains uncertain.

Remarks from both Trump and Rubio suggest that the administration does not wish to see a further escalation and despite supporting messages towards India in the days after the terrorist attack, is not supporting New Delhi in taking more aggressive action at this time.

India also informed the U.S. immediately after launching its air strikes, signaling an intent not to antagonize Washington.

A critical variable, however, may be the extent of domestic pressure on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to sustain military engagement.

Pakistani officials have threatened continued retaliation, and Pakistan’s Defense Minister, Khawaja Muhammad Asif, has warned the media that “there is almost no room left to de-escalate”.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Syrian interim president confirms indirect talks with Israel

Syria’s President, Ahmed al-Sharaa, said his government had engaged in indirect talks with Israel in an attempt to reduce tensions. U.S. Congressman Joe Wilson revealed that the talks were being brokered by Azerbaijan.

Last week, during conflict between government forces and Druze groups, Israeli airstrikes supporting the Druze landed just 500 meters from the presidential palace in Damascus. Israel has conducted frequent raids in Syria since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December, targeting military facilities and strategic infrastructure, and occupies large swathes of territory in the west and south-west.

Israeli officials have said they seek to prevent hostile actors from establishing a foothold near the border. They have also tried to limit Turkish influence, as Ankara holds sway with Syria’s new administration. The strike near the palace marks the most dangerous escalation so far.

Al-Sharaa’s disclosure comes during a visit to Paris, where he met French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday. It was his first trip to Europe since taking power. The visit required a special exemption from the United Nations, as al-Sharaa remains under international sanctions for his leadership of Hayat al-Sham, a group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda.

During a press conference following his meeting with Macron, al-Sharaa called for sanctions on Syria to be lifted.

U.S. approves Qatari plan to fund Syrian civil-service pay

The U.S. has approved a Qatari initiative to finance Syria’s public sector. The financial support will lead to a salary increase of up to 400% for more than one million civil servants, providing an important boost to the local economy and increase the new government’s ability to stabilize the country and solidify its authority.

Syria’s finance minister, Mohammad Yisr Burnieh, announced that Qatar will provide the $29 million per month for an initial three-month period, with the possibility of ongoing extensions after review.

Burnieh added that the grant has received a U.S. sanctions exemption and will be administered by the United Nations Development Programme.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

Egypt and Greece sign strategic partnership agreement

Egypt and Greece signed a “strategic partnership” agreement on Wednesday during a visit to Athens by Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, who met his Greek counterpart, Constantine Tassoulas, as well as Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Last year, el-Sisi and Mitsotakis agreed to establish a bilateral cooperation board to deepen ties.

Migration was top of the agenda during the talks.

Ongoing economic hardship and political repression in Egypt continue to drive irregular migration, often via perilous Mediterranean routes to Greece.

Last year, the European Union pledged €7.4 billion ($8.4 billion) to Cairo in an effort to stem the outflow.

In Athens, el-Sisi also promoted a planned electrical interconnection project with Greece, calling it a “qualitative shift” in relations. The €4.2 billion ($4.7 billion) venture will lay a bi-directional underwater cable transmitting renewable energy from Egypt to Greece and southeastern Europe. The initiative is backed by the European Commission.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Sudan to sever ties with UAE, citing support for paramilitary group

Sudan’s security and defense council announced it would break diplomatic relations with the United Arab Emirates, following allegations by the army that Abu Dhabi has supplied the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) with advanced weaponry.

According to the council, the arms enabled the RSF to carry out a major assault on Port Sudan on Sunday.

The RSF’s strikes have largely involved drones. Sudanese military leaders have long accused the UAE of backing the RSF. United Nations experts have found the allegations credible and are continuing investigations.

Abu Dhabi has consistently denied any involvement. The UAE’s purported motivation, analysts suggest, lies in concerns over rising Islamist influence in the region, particularly within the Sudanese army, which includes powerful Muslim Brotherhood-aligned Islamist elements.

Congo and Rwanda submit draft peace proposal

Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump’s senior advisor for Africa and the Middle East, said on Monday that he had received a draft peace proposal from the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. Boulos described it as an “important step,” although the content remains confidential. It is unclear whether the proposal includes any concessions to the U.S., such as access to Congo’s critical minerals.

Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi had previously suggested offering the U.S. such access in exchange for help calming hostilities with rebel groups and with Rwanda.

Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio oversaw the signing of a commitment by Congo and Rwanda to pursue peace. Their foreign ministers are expected to meet later in May to finalize an agreement. In January, the Rwanda-backed rebel group M23 seized the eastern Congolese cities of Goma and later Bukavu, leaving some 3,000 people dead.

Re-elected Australian prime minister to visit Indonesia first

Australia’s re-elected Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed on Wednesday that his first foreign visit would be to Jakarta, signaling the importance his government places on Indonesia and broader Asian engagement.

Australian leaders traditionally make Indonesia their first destination abroad following an election, reflecting the country’s geographic and strategic significance.

During the campaign, the defense publication Janes reported that Russia had requested to station military aircraft in Papua, Indonesia—roughly 1,200 kilometers from Darwin, Australia’s northernmost city. Indonesia denied the report, but Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles was concerned enough to contact his counterpart, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, to seek clarification.

In August last year, Australia and Indonesia signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement to facilitate deeper military collaboration, including joint exercises and training exchanges. This built on the 2006 Lombok Treaty, which bolstered overall security ties.

Indonesia continues, officially, to adhere to non-alignment in its foreign policy. However, Australia remains Indonesia’s second-most important defense partner, after the United States.