What you need to know

India and Pakistan border war intensifies

A cycle of escalation appears to be under way in South Asia. India accused Pakistan of launching cross-border drone and artillery attacks on Thursday night, a day after Indian forces again struck sites inside Pakistani territory in retaliation for a deadly militant assault in Kashmir.

Islamabad, while insisting it has acted only in self-defense, claimed it had downed 29 Indian drones and killed up to 50 Indian troops along the de facto border. Its armed forces also said they had shot down several French- and Russian-made Indian jets. India denied those claims and said its own strikes had avoided civilian targets.

Public opinion in Pakistan is hardening, according to our sources in the country. The death of more than 30 people in Indian strikes early on Wednesday prompted calls for a firm response.

Though both sides continue to issue public statements insisting they do not seek further escalation, little evidence of serious diplomacy can be seen. With hostilities now spilling across the Line of Control and involving high-tech munitions, the possibility of a broader conflict can no longer be discounted.

The latest round of violence follows a militant attack last month in Indian-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists. India blamed Pakistani-backed militants, a charge Islamabad denies.

On Thursday, India’s Ministry of Defense stated on the platform X that recent attacks had caused no casualties or damage. But Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri reported that Pakistani shelling had killed 16 Indian civilians and wounded 59 others.

India said it had destroyed Pakistani air-defense radar systems in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on its military bases. Pakistan claimed that India used Israeli-made Harop drones (kamikaze-style loitering munitions) to attack Pakistani soldiers, one of whom was reportedly killed near the Rawalpindi Cricket Stadium.

Pakistan also said Indian strikes killed 31 civilians and damaged military assets near Lahore. India responded that it had targeted and destroyed a Pakistani air-defense system in the area. Pakistani military officials claimed to have intercepted 25 Indian drones over the past 48 hours.

The Himalayan region of Kashmir, long disputed by the two nuclear-armed neighbors, has been a source of repeated conflict since the subcontinent was divided in 1947. Though the majority of the population is Muslim, Kashmir acceded to India under a Hindu maharaja at partition.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s revocation of the region’s autonomous status in 2019, following a suicide bombing that killed 40 Indian paramilitary personnel, further inflamed tensions.

Since then, sporadic attacks by militant groups in Kashmir have continued, deepening communal divisions. Though intermittent skirmishes between India and Pakistan are not uncommon, the current intensity marks a sharp departure from recent years of relative calm.

The U.S. has appealed for restraint but has limited its diplomatic engagement. President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he hoped both countries would step back from confrontation. “They’ve gone tit-for-tat, so hopefully they can stop now,” he said. “If I can do anything to help, I will be there.” Vice President JD Vance on Thursday said U.S. influence over the conflict was limited, indicating that America is not currently interested in becoming deeply involved in diplomatic efforts to end the growing war.

India said Thursday that its latest operations were in response to renewed Pakistani shelling that had left more civilians dead. With rhetoric on both sides intensifying and little sign of back-channel dialogue or serious intervention from the major international powers, South Asia finds itself facing a potentially expanding war.

America First

U.S. trade deal with the U.K.

U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer yesterday announced the outline of a new U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, marking a major political victory for the Trump administration.

The framework, which appears to favor the United States, reflects Britain’s post-Brexit urgency to forge alternative trade partnerships amid fraying ties with Europe.

As part of the deal, the U.S. will eliminate a 25% tariff on British steel and aluminum exports, while up to 100,000 U.K.-manufactured cars per year will be allowed into the U.S. under a reduced 10% tariff, with the standard 27.5% applying beyond that quota.

A $10 billion agreement between U.K. airlines and Boeing will proceed, with Rolls-Royce engines and aircraft components exempt from U.S. duties.

The agricultural terms include a commitment from the U.K. to import 13,000 tonnes of high-quality American beef annually, while British farmers will receive reciprocal access to the U.S. market.

Despite expanded entry for U.S. ethanol, agricultural goods, and machinery, British food standards for imports will remain unchanged. The two sides also agreed to negotiate a broader digital trade accord aimed at cutting red tape for British tech and services firms, although the U.K.'s existing Digital Services Tax will stay in place for now.

Additionally, the U.K. has secured preferential treatment under future U.S. national-security tariffs imposed under Section 232, previously used to target steel and aluminum.

The White House highlighted that it has raised average tariffs on U.K. goods from 3.4% to 10%, while Britain has slashed its own average rates from 5.1% to just 1.8%.

U.S.-Houthi ceasefire excludes Israel, says group’s spokesperson

A spokesperson for Yemen’s Houthi movement said on Wednesday that a ceasefire agreement reached with the United States does not extend to Israel.

The statement raised doubts about whether the group would truly suspend attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—operations it has conducted since late 2023 as a gesture of support to the Palestinians.

The ceasefire was announced on Tuesday by President Donald Trump, who said the Houthis had agreed to stop targeting U.S. ships in exchange for a halt to the American air campaign in Yemen, which intensified over the past month.

Also on Tuesday, Israel launched strikes on targets in Yemen’s capital, Sanaa, including the international airport. Houthi-affiliated media reported that the attack killed at least three people and wounded 35 more. The group’s political bureau said infrastructure was targeted, including ports, cement factories, and power stations. The director of Sanaa’s airport estimated the damage at $500 million. Israel’s strikes came in response to a Houthi missile attack that landed inside the grounds of Ben Gurion Airport on Sunday.

Trump is due to travel to the Middle East next week. So far, it appears that he will not be visiting Israel, despite strong lobbying from the Israeli government. Despite the U.S. continuing to supply Israel with weapons and supporting Israel diplomatically, Trump has frequently expressed great personal frustration with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

If Trump does not visit Israel, this will be interpreted as a major diplomatic snub and an indication of the U.S. pivoting away from Israel towards the Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. Whether this will impact Israel’s planned campaign to reoccupy Gaza remains to be seen.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Heavy Israeli strikes on south Lebanon

Israel conducted heavy air raids on southern Lebanon on Thursday, with the state-run National News Agency reporting two intense strikes near the Nabatiyeh region. Lebanon’s Health Ministry said one person was killed and eight injured. The Israeli military stated it had targeted a “terrorist infrastructure site” used by Hezbollah; likely an underground munitions storage site. On Wednesday, an Israeli airstrike in the southern city of Sidon also killed a commander of Hamas, the Palestinian militant group.

Under the terms of a ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel, Hezbollah is required to keep its fighters and weapons north of the Litani River—30 kilometers (20 miles) from the border. Israel, for its part, was meant to withdraw from Lebanese territory but has maintained positions in five strategically important areas.

The Lebanese army has been gradually redeploying to areas vacated by Israeli forces. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said in April that the army had taken control of 85% of the south, with the remaining territory held up by Israel’s occupation of several positions on the Lebanese side of the border.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

New German chancellor Merz visits France in bid to reset ties

Germany’s newly appointed Chancellor Frederic Merz met with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris on Wednesday, where both leaders pledged to deepen security collaboration. The visit marked Merz’s first foreign trip since taking office on Monday, following a failed initial vote three days earlier. Later that day, he traveled to Warsaw to meet Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Berlin, like many European capitals, is uneasy about the U.S. administration’s push for a rapid resolution to the war in Ukraine, fearing that Kyiv may be pressured into accepting unfavorable terms.

Merz stressed in Paris that European Union members must increase their defense budgets to support Ukraine.

Norway seeks deeper European ties as U.S. protection grows less reliable

In its inaugural National Security Strategy, Norway announced plans to strengthen cooperation with Nordic and broader European partners, citing uncertainty over the future role of the U.S. in regional affairs and the re-emergence of Russia as a military threat.

The document emphasized several pillars of national interest, including the preservation of sovereignty, social trust, and a rapid build-up of military capabilities.

Last year, Oslo committed to raising defense spending by more than 20% over 12 years—totaling some $60 billion.

The new strategy outlines ambitions to collaborate more closely with the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Poland, as well as the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

As an Arctic nation, Norway also faces growing strategic pressures in the far north. Its Arctic policy prioritizes security, stability, and pragmatic international cooperation, especially concerning climate change, which is expected to transform the region through accelerated glacial melt, opening up new shipping routes that will be used by China and Russia for both trade and power projection.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Russia and China renew pipeline talks as Xi meets Putin

Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev said on Thursday that Moscow and Beijing remain in “active state” negotiations over the Power of Siberia-2 pipeline, according to the TASS news agency. However, he noted that a contract was unlikely to be signed in the coming days.

The pipeline, which would transport natural gas from Russia’s Yamal Peninsula to China via Mongolia, has been under discussion for years. It would have a capacity of around 50 billion cubic meters annually.

Russia has long sought a formal agreement, but China has hesitated, largely due to pricing disputes and a lack of near-term demand. China is not expected to require additional gas supply until after 2030.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, currently in Moscow, is expected to raise the matter in talks with President Vladimir Putin.

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