What you need to know

Trump to visit Gulf states

President Donald Trump is preparing to visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates this week—his first major overseas trip since taking office earlier this year.

Framed as a commercial mission, the visit is expected to result in a flurry of multibillion-dollar investment agreements.

On Thursday, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would fast-track measures to facilitate foreign investment in American firms—a long-standing request from Gulf capitals, especially in areas such as artificial intelligence.

Trump has also issued an executive order to ease restrictions on certain arms sales and streamline weapons procurement. These changes are likely to be welcomed by Gulf governments, which remain among the most prolific buyers of U.S. military hardware and are perennially anxious about potential air-borne military threats from Iran.

Trump will be accompanied by an entourage of prominent U.S. business leaders, including Elon Musk, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman and Larry Fink.

Though officially focused on economic cooperation, the region’s volatile politics will unavoidably loom large over the visit.

The U.S. recently concluded a fourth round of nuclear talks with Iran, while Israel continues its military push in Gaza.

Before the Hamas-led attacks of October 2023, Saudi Arabia had reportedly been close to finalizing a normalization deal with Israel. Riyadh has since made clear that any future agreement would need to include a credible path to Palestinian statehood—an outcome that appears implausible under the current Israeli leadership.

Trump’s decision to exclude Israel from the itinerary has been widely viewed as a diplomatic snub to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Last week, Israel declared that it had prepared plans to reoccupy the Gaza Strip (from which is withdrew in in 2005) if a major deal with Hamas for the release of hostages is not secured by the conclusion of Trump’s Middle East trip.

Trump’s team has been conducting parallel negotiations with Hamas through intermediaries in Doha and Cairo, and have successfully secured the release of the final living U.S. hostage, Edan Alexander.

Israel is suddenly facing the possibility that the Trump administration may be prioritizing relations with the Gulf over those with Israel. Netanyahu told the Israeli Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Sunday, “I think we will need to wean ourselves off American military aid.”

However, any informed observer of Trump’s foreign policy should understand that it is entirely transactional, and capable of turning 180 degrees in an instant.

Gulf leaders are also expected to press Trump on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. They are likely to seek assurances that any future deal with Tehran will include binding safeguards to prevent the development of nuclear weapons.

Memories of a 2019 Iranian drone and missile strike on Saudi oil facilities remain fresh in Riyadh, as well as multiple drone and missile strikes by Yemen’s Houthi movement.

The United Arab Emirates, too, has been targeted by Iran and its regional proxies.

Trump’s trip to the Middle East is likely to be one of the most consequential events in what is already an extremely consequential second term in government.

America First

U.S. and China agree to pause tariff war

The United States and China reached an agreement on Monday to sharply reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90-day period, marking an unexpected thaw in an otherwise bruising trade war that has unsettled global markets and rattled investor confidence.

The accord was announced in a joint statement following marathon negotiations over the weekend in Geneva, where trade officials from the world’s two largest economies cited “substantial progress.” Both sides emphasized the importance of fostering “a sustainable, long-term, and mutually beneficial economic and trade relationship.”

Global investors responded with relief. U.S. equity futures jumped in early Asian trading—Dow futures rose by more than 2%, the S&P 500 by nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq Composite by more than 3.5%. Markets across Asia also surged, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbing more than 3%.

Under the terms of the agreement, mutual tariff reductions are to be implemented by 14 May. President Donald Trump’s 20% tariffs on Chinese goods tied to fentanyl-related concerns—introduced in February and March—will remain in place. However, both countries agreed to lower reciprocal tariffs by 115 percentage points for the 90-day period.

That temporary reprieve means the U.S. will reduce its average tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China will cut its levies on American goods from 125% to 10%, according to the statement.

The economic damage from the trade war has already become apparent.

As part of the deal, both countries also agreed to create a standing framework for continued economic dialogue.

The mechanism will be led by Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Future meetings may take place in China, the U.S., or a neutral third country.

Though not the sweeping deal many had hoped for, the temporary détente marks a rare moment of convergence between two increasingly rivalrous powers.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

U.S., Iran conclude fourth round of nuclear talks in Oman

The United States and Iran wrapped up their fourth round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program on Sunday in Oman. A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry described the discussions as “difficult but useful.” The talks were led by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff, with mediation provided by Omani diplomats. Araghchi noted that the latest round had been “more serious and more straightforward” than the previous three.

Statements from U.S. officials—including President Donald Trump—have offered mixed signals regarding Washington’s precise demands. On Friday, Witkoff stated that he expects Iran to dismantle its three primary nuclear facilities, warning that “if it did not, we’ll have to take a different route.” He added bluntly: “No enrichment. That means dismantlement.”

Yet it seems improbable that Iran would accept the full deconstruction of a program it claims is strictly for civilian energy purposes. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested the administration might tolerate the existence of a nuclear program—provided Iran halts domestic enrichment and ceases imports of fissile material.

Trump has repeatedly warned that the U.S. would not hesitate to resort to military action if no agreement is reached. The prospects of a breakthrough remain uncertain, and the likelihood of escalation cannot be discounted.

Nevertheless, the process is continuing. Talks have now reportedly moved to the “expert level,” where more detailed elements of a potential agreement are under discussion. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi said the latest meetings included “useful and original” proposals, and confirmed that the next round of talks will take place after both delegations consult their respective capitals.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

India & Pakistan exchange missile strikes, uneasy quiet today

Following almost two weeks of exchanges of fire across their borders, and the shoot down of at least five Indian Air Force jets last week, Pakistan accused India of launching missile strikes on multiple air bases within its territory on Saturday, prompting retaliatory fire.

According to the chief spokesperson for Pakistan’s military, the Indian attacks targeted Nur Khan air base in Rawalpindi, near the capital Islamabad; Murid air base in Chakwal; and Rafiqui air base in the Jhang district of eastern Punjab province.

In response, Pakistan claimed to have launched its own missiles at Indian military positions. Residents in Indian-administered Kashmir reported hearing loud explosions in several locations, including Srinagar, Jammu and the garrison town of Udhampur on Sunday.

After Vice President JD Vance last week suggested that the U.S. little interest in the conflict, the administration appears to have stepped in over the weekend. President Donald Trump announced on Saturday on his Truth Social platform that India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. Senior officials from both sides swiftly confirmed the deal.

However, within hours, each side accused the other of violating the ceasefire.

Overnight and this morning, however, exchanges of fire between the two sides appear to have halted and residents are returning to border areas.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will address the nation tonight at 8pm New Delhi time.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Zelensky says he is prepared to meet Putin in Türkiye on Thursday

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Sunday that he is ready to meet directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul, Türkiye, on Thursday. Putin has not confirmed his attendance.

Zelensky expressed hope that Russia would not use the talks as a pretext to prolong hostilities and instead accept a ceasefire.

Putin, however, has insisted that talks can only proceed if Russia’s conditions for ending the war are met. It remains unclear whether Putin will attend in person or dispatch an envoy in his place.

Russia’s longstanding demands include guarantees that Ukraine will not join NATO and that Kyiv formally recognize Moscow’s sovereignty over the Crimean Peninsula and four other southeastern regions currently under partial Russian control.

French President Emmanuel Macron described Putin’s willingness to discuss terms as “a first move,” but one that ultimately falls short of what is needed. On the battlefield, Russian forces are continuing a slow, methodical, and extremely costly advance across small areas of eastern Ukraine.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

UN’s World Food Programme warns of rising hunger in West and Central Africa

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) warned on Friday that a combination of armed conflict and increasingly severe weather events is exacerbating food insecurity across West and Central Africa. According to the agency, some 52 million people across the region are struggling to meet basic nutritional needs.

WFP estimates that during the lean season between June and August—when food supplies traditionally dwindle between harvests—three million people could face emergency levels of hunger. Regional conflicts have already displaced 10 million people, with Nigeria and Cameroon accounting for roughly eight million internally displaced persons, WFP said in its latest analysis.

The deterioration in food security has been stark. In 2019, only 4% of the population in the region was considered food insecure. Today, that figure has surged to 30%.

WFP remains the world’s largest international food aid agency, disbursing $9.8 billion last year. But it now faces deep funding constraints. The administration of President Donald Trump has implemented sweeping cuts to foreign aid, forcing U.N. agencies, including WFP, to make painful reductions. In late April, WFP announced plans to eliminate 25–30% of its workforce—amounting to approximately 6,000 positions.

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