What you need to know

Türkiye’s strategic success as PKK declares end to armed conflict

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced on Monday that it would disband and cease its armed struggle against the Turkish state. The move was confirmed by Turkish officials and marks the formal end of a conflict that began in 1984 and has claimed some 40,000 lives.

At a congress held last week in northern Iraq—where many of the group’s members reside in mountainous hideouts—the PKK issued a statement declaring its “organizational structure dissolved” and its armed operations halted. A senior PKK official said all military activity would cease immediately.

The decision follows a February call by the group’s imprisoned leader, Abdullah Öcalan, for a full disbandment. A ceasefire was declared on 1 March.

The PKK retains links with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led militia backed by the U.S.

Meanwhile, rumors abound, including in the mainstream media, that U.S. President Donald Trump might meet Turkish-backed Syrian President Ahmad Al Sharaa during his trip to the Middle East. Sharaa has reportedly offered to build a “Trump Tower” in Damascus. Yesterday Trump said that he was seriously considering lifting sanctions on Syria.

The victory of Sharaa’s Turkish-backed militia group in early December over the Assad regime marked the highpoint of Turkish influence in Syria. Coming just a few days after the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire following Israel’s devastation of Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah, in Lebanon, Sharaa’s victory created a new geopolitical reality in the Middle East.

Türkiye has been spreading its influence throughout the region for over a decade, and has made major investments in several strategically significant places, including Syria, Somalia, and, importantly, Libya.

Yesterday the Turkish-backed government in Tripoli, Libya, scored what appears to be a major victory over the last of the major revolutionary brigades controlling parts of the capital. The assassination of the commander of the Stability Support Apparatus (SSA) removed the last major militia leader who was competing with the Government of National Unity (GNU) under Turkish-backed and internationally-recognized Prime Minister Abdel Hamed Dbeibah. Government forces have now taken over the bases previously occupied by the SSA and the leadership of the militia appears to have fled. After clashes last night, the capital is calmer this morning, but more violence cannot be ruled out.

From the PKK surrender, to the Trump administration’s tentative warming to Sharaa, to the consolidation of power by the GNU in Tripoli, the past 48 hours have seen a significant rise in the geopolitical power of Türkiye in the Middle East and north Africa. The chessboard was reset in late November through early December with the defeat of Hezbollah and Assad. Now all eyes should be on the growing competition between Israel and Türkiye, as the leading military powers in the region.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

UN-backed panel warns of looming famine in Gaza

A UN-backed food security panel has warned that nearly every civilian in Gaza—nearly 2m people—is at “critical risk” of famine. The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification reported on Monday that roughly 244,000 people are already experiencing “catastrophic” levels of food insecurity. A two-month ceasefire that began in mid-January allowed some humanitarian relief into Gaza, but the resumption of Israel’s military campaign in mid-March has worsened conditions dramatically. The panel estimated that the number facing famine could reach 470,000 if access to food does not improve immediately.

Since 2 March, when Israel placed Gaza under full siege, reports of malnutrition (particularly among children) have surged. Israeli bombardment has devastated the territory’s agricultural sector, leaving it almost entirely reliant on aid. Only 4% of Gaza’s pre-war cattle and 2% of its poultry stocks remain, and nearly 80% of its farmland is now inaccessible. Israeli officials argue the renewed offensive is intended to pressure Hamas into releasing hostages still held in Gaza.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Philippines outlines long-term security plan for South China Sea

National Security Advisor Eduardo Año of the Philippines said last week at a forum that Manila is preparing a long-term security strategy to uphold its claims in the South China Sea—one that will extend beyond the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos Jnr.

Año noted that tensions with Beijing in the South China Sea were impossible to ignore. Manila has struggled to deter China’s increasingly aggressive maneuvers around disputed shoals and atolls, particularly given Beijing’s use of so-called grey-zone tactics.

Although the Philippines maintains a treaty alliance with the U.S., its stance has shifted depending on the administration in power. Under Rodrigo Duterte, for instance, the country moved closer to Beijing, with Duterte declaring a “separation from Washington” in 2016.

More recently, the Philippines has signed defense agreements with Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

China courts Latin America to expand regional clout

China will host a major summit this weekend aimed at strengthening ties with Latin American and Caribbean countries.

The China-CELAC ministerial forum, set for Tuesday in Beijing, will be attended by Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Colombian President Gustavo Petro, and Chilean President Gabriel Boric.

Bilateral trade between China and the bloc reached $427bn in the first three quarters of 2024—nearly double the level a decade earlier.

President Xi Jinping is expected to address the summit, chaired by Foreign Minister Wang Yi. On Monday, Yi met with foreign ministers from Venezuela, Peru, Uruguay, and Cuba, calling on them to defend multilateralism and deepen cooperation.

While the U.S. has long dominated the region economically and culturally, China’s trade and infrastructure investments have surged in recent years, particularly in resource-rich countries such as Brazil, Peru, and Chile.

In November, a $1.3bn Chinese-funded port began operations in Peru, with Xi attending the inauguration. Lima has described the port as a future regional transshipment hub. Though Lula sees China as a useful counterweight to U.S. influence, Brazil has also introduced tariffs on Chinese exports such as steel and fiber-optic cables.

Despite its geographic proximity and cultural influence, the U.S. has faced regional unease, especially after Trump’s threats to reclaim the Panama Canal. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a fluent Spanish speaker, has sought to restore relations, making Panama the destination of his first official overseas visit.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Burkina Faso military and allied militias accused of massacre

The army of Burkina Faso, along with allied militias, killed at least 130 civilians from the Fulani ethnic group near the western town of Solenzo in March, according to Human Rights Watch (HRW). The report is based on video evidence and interviews with survivors, witnesses, and members of the militias involved.

In apparent retaliation, the local al-Qaeda affiliate, Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin, launched attacks on villages it accused of collaborating with the military. The government, which took power following a 2022 coup led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, denied the allegations, calling them “fake information.” It has not responded to the HRW report.

Witnesses said the massacre involved drone strikes, government troops, and a militia known as the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland. The Fulani, long accused of supporting Islamist insurgents such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, have frequently been targeted in counterterrorism operations.

Traoré’s junta came to power promising to restore stability and defeat insurgents. It has since expelled French forces, but the security situation—particularly in the tri-border area with Mali and Niger—has worsened.

In 2023, Burkina Faso was the country most affected by terrorism worldwide. Traoré remains popular domestically and among anti-Western audiences abroad, having nationalized gold mines and promised to redistribute resource revenues more equitably. Both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have reported modest improvements in economic growth.

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