What you need to know

Trump repositions U.S. policy in the Middle East

On a high-profile trip to the Middle East, President Donald Trump unveiled a series of policy shifts likely to reshape the region’s geopolitical dynamics.

Broadly speaking, Trump is aligning the U.S. closer to the agenda of the Gulf states (especially Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar) and Türkiye, and placing the strategic aims of the current Israeli government in second place.

Chief among the policy shifts was his unexpected decision to lift U.S. sanctions on Syria, offering a financial reprieve to the country’s new president, Ahmed al-Sharaa. Al-Sharaa is an Islamist formerly affiliated with Al Qaeda and now successfully presenting himself as a reformer eager for normalization of Syrian ties with the international community.

This morning Trump met with al-Sharaa, along with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman (MBS) and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (who joined via video-link). The meeting lasted over 30 minutes.

Trump did, however, issue a stark ultimatum to Iran over its nuclear ambitions, threatening “massive maximum pressure” unless Tehran curbs its enrichment activities. “The offer will not last forever,” he said.

The visit and the policy initiatives showcase Trump’s transactional, America First, approach to foreign policy.

Trump’s overture to Syria has raised alarm in Israel, where officials remain suspicious of al-Sharaa and insist that south-western and southern Syria remain a demilitarized zone. Much of that area is currently occupied by Israeli forces.

The trip continues next to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, where further investment and defense agreements are expected.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Fighting resumes in Tripoli as Libya teeters on the brink

Clashes resumed overnight in the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and continued through Wednesday, raising fears of a broader conflagration.

On Monday evening, the head of the Stability Support Apparatus, a prominent militia group known as the SSA, was assassinated under unclear circumstances. Following that, forces aligned with Libya’s internationally recognized prime minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah (who maintains close ties with Türkiye) moved swiftly to dislodge SSA units from their positions, seizing territory and driving surviving members out of the city. Most of the group’s leadership is believed to have been killed or has fled.

After a pause in hostilities on Tuesday, fighting reignited between Dbeibah-aligned forces and Radaa, another powerful militia. Heavy exchanges of fire have been reported throughout Tripoli. The Presidency Council declared a unilateral ceasefire late on Wednesday morning, but its durability remains uncertain.

Elsewhere, General Khalifa Haftar, who receives backing from Russia and controls eastern Libya, has reportedly begun mobilizing his forces. Militias from Misrata, a strategic town east of the capital, have announced plans to mobilize in opposition to Haftar’s advance.

Libya now stands perilously close to another full-scale conflict. The last major conflict ended in 2020, but there were outbreaks of violence in Tripoli between militias in 2022 and 2023.

America First

U.S. cuts ‘de minimis’ tariffs on Chinese imports to 54 percent

The White House issued an executive order on Monday reducing tariffs on low-value parcels from China to 54 percent, down from 120 percent.

The change, affecting so-called de minimis shipments, marks another step toward easing trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

The revised rate applies to items valued under $800 shipped by post. A flat $100 fee will remain. The measure takes effect immediately. Prior to the tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, such shipments were largely exempt from duties and subject to minimal inspections.

In recent years, this loophole has become increasingly popular, with more than 90 percent of parcels from China entering under de minimis rules. This has strongly benefited Chinese e-commerce firms such as Shein and Temu. On Tuesday, the Chinese yuan rose to a six-month high against the dollar.

Although the rule dates back to 1938, it has drawn growing criticism from both Republican and Democratic lawmakers, who argue that it allows low-cost Chinese goods to flood the market and undermine domestic industries.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

EU agrees on new sanctions on Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ if no peace deal agreed

The European Union agreed on Wednesday to impose new sanctions on Russia if it rejects a proposed 30-day unconditional ceasefire, part of an initiative advanced by the White House and a coalition of allied governments.

The effort comes as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he is prepared to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. The Kremlin has not confirmed whether Putin will attend.

Zelensky argued that a refusal to engage in talks would demonstrate Putin’s unwillingness to end the war. EU ambassadors reached a preliminary agreement during a Wednesday meeting, with formal approval by foreign ministers expected next week.

The proposed sanctions would target Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet”—a group of vessels used to circumvent Western oil restrictions. These ships frequently evade detection by transmitting false data, disabling transponders, and conducting ship-to-ship transfers to hide the origin of their cargo.

French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz both supported the move, describing the measures as necessary should Russia fail to agree to a ceasefire.

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he would be open to participating in the Türkiye talks. Ukrainian officials welcomed the suggestion, calling it the “right idea” as part of efforts to launch a ceasefire and end the conflict.

China offers $10 billion credit, law enforcement training to Latin America

Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on Tuesday to increase Beijing’s investment in Latin America, unveiling a new $9 billion development credit line. Xi made the announcement at the China–Community of Latin American and Caribbean States Forum, held in Beijing and attended by leaders from 33 countries.

China has steadily expanded its influence in the region, both economically and geopolitically, and is now Latin America’s largest trading partner, with bilateral trade surpassing $500 billion last year.

Among the key attendees were Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Colombian President Gustavo Petro.

Beijing also committed to providing law enforcement training to several Latin American countries, including support for combating transnational organized crime.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Mali ruling junta dissolves all political parties

Mali’s military government moved on Tuesday to dissolve all political parties, amid a surge in the abduction of pro-democracy activists in the capital, Bamako. General Assimi Goita, the Malian president, signed the decree, which was read aloud by a subordinate on national television.

Human Rights Watch reported that last Thursday Abba Alhassane, secretary general of an opposition party, was abducted by masked gunmen, while El Bachir Thiam, leader of another opposition group, was seized by unidentified men outside the capital the same day.

The Mali government continues to fight an Islamist insurgency affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State group, with support from Russian mercenaries.

Move fast and break things

Twenty Democratic states file lawsuits opposing Trump’s immigration agenda

A coalition of 20 Democratic-led states filed lawsuits on Tuesday against President Donald Trump’s administration, seeking to block federal efforts to condition funding on cooperation with immigration enforcement. The lawsuits contend that such threats, which would withhold money for emergency preparedness, transportation, and counterterrorism, are “blatantly illegal” and infringe on congressional authority over spending.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, leading the litigation, accused Trump of using federal funds as a “bargaining chip.” The lawsuits—one against the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Department of Homeland Security, the other targeting the Transportation Department—were filed in Federal District Court in Rhode Island.

California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Rhode Island are leading the legal effort. Other participating states include Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin.

Rhode Island Attorney General Peter Neronha warned of “creeping authoritarianism” and urged continued resistance.

Sanctuary jurisdictions typically have laws or policies limiting local cooperation with federal immigration arrests on civil grounds.

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