Following his highly successful, whirlwind tour of the Arabian Gulf countries, Trump is now expressing optimism about a deal with Iran to curtail its nuclear program. Trump is, however, also warning of ‘violence’ if the deal doesn’t happen soon. Israel is also gearing up for a major ground offensive in Gaza, with the U.S. expressing concern but not appearing to want to get involved at this stage. |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
US close to nuclear deal with Iran, Trump says
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the U.S. was nearing a nuclear deal with Iran and that a breakthrough could lead to “long-term peace” between Washington and Tehran.
A fourth round of negotiations took place last Sunday in Oman, which Iranian officials described as “difficult but useful.”
In an interview with U.S. media on Wednesday, Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, suggested that Tehran may be willing to limit its nuclear program if sanctions are lifted.
Shamkhani also said Iran was prepared to forgo nuclear weapons, reduce its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and allow international inspections.
While in Qatar on Thursday, Trump said: “We’re not going to be making any nuclear dust in Iran... I think we’re getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this.” He added that Tehran had “sort of agreed to the terms.”
Trump reiterated his longstanding view that Iran can prosper—but only if it abandons nuclear ambitions.
The alternative, Trump warned, would be “violent,” suggesting the potential for U.S. military action.
A fifth round of talks is expected on Sunday, with the negotiations reportedly now in a technical phase.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, however, reacted sharply to Trump’s “nuclear dust” comment, accusing him of stoking regional instability. “Trump thinks he can sanction and threaten us, then speak of human rights,” he said.
Qatar has played a central role in the mediation efforts, with Trump thanking Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani for urging restraint. Trump said the U.S. would work to protect Qatar if it faced military retaliation, given its proximity to Iran.
Nonetheless, significant sticking points remain. U.S. officials have at times indicated that Iran would need to halt uranium enrichment entirely, a demand Tehran continues to reject as a “red line.”
The Middle East
Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization
In a call with Israel’s Netanyahu, Rubio says U.S. troubled by Gaza killings
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday, while in Türkiye, that the United States remained concerned about the humanitarian situation in Gaza, following criticism of a joint aid plan developed by Washington and Israel to deliver relief to the Palestinian enclave.
Israel has cut off nearly all food and humanitarian supplies to Gaza for two months, amid mounting warnings that a substantial portion of the population is at risk of famine. At least 250 people were reported killed in Israeli air strikes on Thursday and early Friday morning.
Rubio also held a call that day with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, during which they discussed the evolving situation in Gaza. Rubio emphasized the need to ensure that humanitarian aid reaches civilians “without Hamas being able to steal it from people.”
Netanyahu reiterated that the upcoming Israeli offensive aimed to eradicate Hamas.
Reports inside Israel indicate that Netanyahu intends to launch a major new ground campaign into the Gaza Strip on Saturday entitled “Gideon’s Chariots”. The current round of airstrikes appear to be in preparation for that offensive.
On Wednesday, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation announced plans to begin distributing aid in late May, pledging nearly 300 million meals over a 90-day period. Little is publicly known about the Geneva-based organization, which some observers believe may be backed by the U.S. State Department. The United Nations has stated that it is not involved in the initiative.
In recent weeks, it appears that President Donald Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s stance and opted not to include Israel on his recent trip to the Middle East.
Rubio meets Syrian foreign minister following Trump–al-Sharaa talks
Secretary of State Marco Rubio met with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani in Türkiye on Thursday, days after President Donald Trump’s landmark meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in Saudi Arabia.
Rubio expressed U.S. support for sanctions relief to stabilize Syria and welcomed Damascus’s stated commitments to peace with Israel, curbing Iranian influence, clarifying the fate of missing or killed U.S. citizens, and eliminating chemical weapons. Rubio also stressed the importance of safeguarding the human rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religion.
The Middle Powers
The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations
India says IAEA should oversee Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal
India’s Defense Minister Rajnath Singh on Thursday questioned the security of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and called for them to be placed under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Singh, speaking at a military base in the Indian-administered city of Srinagar in Kashmir, described Pakistan as an “irresponsible and rogue nation.”
His comments came days after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire, ending several days of the most intense cross-border fighting in decades. The violence was triggered by a militant attack in Kashmir last month that killed 26 civilians. India blamed Pakistan for backing the assault. Islamabad denied responsibility and called for an international investigation, though it has long supported Kashmiri separatist groups.
Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry swiftly rejected Singh’s remarks, accusing New Delhi of attempting to deflect international scrutiny.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
Trump announces $200 billion worth of deals with UAE
The White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump had secured $200 billion in deals during a visit to the United Arab Emirates. His stop in Abu Dhabi marked the third leg of a regional tour that also included Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The agreements with the UAE include a $14.5 billion commitment from Etihad Airways to purchase 28 Boeing Co. 787 and 777X aircraft, as well as a slate of artificial intelligence initiatives intended to advance the UAE’s technological ambitions. Among them is a plan for Qualcomm Inc. to help establish an AI and data center engineering hub in Abu Dhabi.
The Trump administration was also weighing a deal that would allow the UAE to import more than one million advanced chips from Nvidia Corp. However, internal opposition from officials focused on China policy warned that such an arrangement could jeopardize national security if the technology were to be shared with Beijing—a concern also voiced by the previous U.S. administration. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang has reportedly held discussions with both Trump and UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ).
On Thursday, the UAE also pledged to invest $1.4 trillion in the U.S. over ten years, including in sectors such as AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing. During his meeting with MBZ, Trump said, “I have no doubt that the relationship will only get bigger and better.”
Trump claims the total value of deals signed during his Gulf tour—spanning technology, defense, and commerce—could ultimately exceed $10 trillion.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition.
Cold War 2.0
It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
Trump says no deal on Ukraine until he meets with Putin
President Donald Trump said on Thursday that no agreement on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal would be reached until he had met with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both Trump and Putin had previously suggested they might attend talks in Türkiye, but neither ultimately traveled for negotiations. Talks are still expected to take place, though it remains unclear when they will begin.
A group of mid-level Russian negotiators arrived in Istanbul on Thursday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed them as “decorative,” signaling his belief that the Kremlin is not serious about the discussions. Zelensky, who floated the possibility of a 30-day ceasefire, was himself in Türkiye but said he would not participate in negotiations unless Putin was present.
Although he declined to go to Istanbul, Zelensky met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara. The two leaders meet regularly and maintain a strategically significant relationship. Ukraine’s delegation will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov. Nevertheless, Trump’s assertion that a deal would require a personal meeting with Putin appeared to lower expectations for a breakthrough.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, also in Türkiye on Thursday, said he “didn’t have high expectations” for the talks.
Meanwhile, Zelensky announced a major Russian offensive last night, across the entire length of the front line.
African Tinderbox
Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies
Al-Qaeda claims it killed 200 soldiers in Burkina Faso
An al-Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel has claimed responsibility for killing 200 soldiers in Burkina Faso this week, a figure supported by the SITE Intelligence Group on Thursday. The group, Jama’a Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), made the announcement in a formal statement, a day after claiming to have killed 60 troops.
The government of Burkina Faso has neither confirmed nor denied the reports. JNIM has stepped up its attacks in recent months, exploiting vast ungoverned areas and weak state services.
The military took power in Burkina Faso in a 2022 coup, promising to restore security amid growing Islamist insurgency. One year later, French troops were expelled and Russian mercenaries invited. Since then, the violence has worsened. The insurgency also spans Mali and Niger.
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What happened today:
1532 - Spanish conquistador Francisco Pizarro captures Inca Emperor Atahualpa. 1770 - Louis XVI of France marries Marie Antoinette of Austria, linking two major dynasties. 1916 - Sykes-Picot Agreement signed, dividing Ottoman territories between Britain and France. 1943 - Warsaw Ghetto Uprising crushed by Nazi forces after weeks of resistance. 1960 - Theodore Maiman demonstrates the first working laser. 1966 - Cultural Revolution begins in China. 1974 - India conducts its first nuclear test in Pokhran, becoming a nuclear power. 1991 - Queen Elizabeth II addresses U.S. Congress. 2005 - Kuwait grants women full political rights, including the vote and eligibility for parliament.
