What you need to know

Netanyahu shifts Iran stance as Gaza war enters final stage

Amid rumors circulating in the media, seeded by the U.S. government (and intended to put pressure on Iran), that an Israeli strike on Iran may be imminent, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signaled a notable shift in policy on Wednesday.

Consistently, over many years, Netanyahu has insisted on the total dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear program. Yesterday he said that if the U.S. reaches an agreement “which will prevent Iran from enriching uranium, we will welcome that.”

The fifth round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran will take place in Rome on Friday, 23 May, according to Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.

Turning to Gaza, Netanyahu has laid out a series of conditions that he says must be met to end the war in Gaza:

• The return of all hostages.
• The disarmament of Hamas.
• The exile of Hamas’s leadership.
• The complete demilitarization of Gaza.
• Implementation of the Trump Plan (the details of which remain vague).

Although limited amounts of aid have started entering Gaza over the past 48 hours, Israel has dramatically increased military operations, including airstrikes, and has made it clear that it intends to completely reoccupy the territory.

By outlining the demands above, Netanyahu is signaling that his government may accept an international agreement that meets these demands and thus halt further major military action.

Two ballistic missiles launched toward Israel by the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen were intercepted by Israeli air defenses on Thursday morning, according to the military. No casualties or damage were reported. On Friday, the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on the Houthi-controlled ports of Hodeida and Salif in response to repeated missile and drone attacks, which resumed after Israel walked away from the last round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations.

On Tuesday, the Israeli military opened fire near a delegation of European and Canadian diplomats (including several ambassadors) who were visiting Jenin in the West Bank. According to accounts from those present and videos on social media, the delegation approached a gate marking the boundary of a closed military zone but did not cross it. Israeli troops responded with warning shots, though no injuries were reported.

Separately, but in an event that will surely outrage the American public, two staffers of the Israeli embassy were killed outside the Capital Jewish Museum in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday night during an event focused on humanitarian aid for Gaza. The attacker, a U.S. citizen reportedly affiliated with pro-Palestinian and far-left groups, was apprehended by police.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

India says top Maoist leader killed in major security operation

Indian Home Affairs Minister Amit Shah announced that security forces had killed 27 Maoist insurgents in the central state of Chhattisgarh, including Nambala Keshav Rao, general secretary of the Communist Party of India.

Rao, who had a bounty of $180,000 on his head, was accused of masterminding several deadly attacks, including a 2010 ambush that killed 76 police officers.

Shah reiterated his government’s pledge to eliminate the movement by 2026, with this year seeing one of the most extensive counterinsurgency campaigns to date. The Maoists claim to defend indigenous communities from exploitation in mineral-rich areas spanning Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Maharashtra. The region is known as the Red Corridor due to the strength of Maoist militant groups among local communities.

America First

WHO members approve pandemic preparedness agreement, without U.S.

Member states of the World Health Organization agreed on Tuesday to a treaty aimed at improving global preparedness for future pandemics. Negotiated over three years, the accord commits pharmaceutical manufacturers to allocate 20 percent of pandemic-related vaccines, therapeutics, and tests to the WHO for distribution to poorer countrie. This was a major issue during the COVID-19 crisis.

Although the agreement is legally binding, the U.S. was absent from its final stages. In January, President Donald Trump announced America’s withdrawal from the WHO.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivered a speech to the WHO on Tuesday sharply criticizing the organization, claiming it was “mired in bureaucratic bloat, conflicts of interest, and international power politics.”

The State Department has echoed some of those concerns, particularly alleging Chinese influence over the WHO during the COVID-19 pandemic.

China responded on Wednesday with a pledge of $500 million in funding for the WHO over the next five years, though it was unclear whether this represented new money.

The U.S. had previously earmarked $700 million for the WHO’s 2024–25 budget, but that contribution has since been frozen.

Rubio says China will not supplant U.S. in global aid

Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated on Thursday that the U.S. was not retreating from its global humanitarian responsibilities, nor was it allowing China to assume a leadership role in development aid.

Speaking during congressional hearings on Tuesday, Rubio dismissed accusations from Democratic lawmakers that the Trump administration’s cuts had created a vacuum.

The administration has slashed funding to the United States Agency for International Development and various U.N. agencies, resulting in large-scale layoffs. Critics argued that the reductions will erode U.S. soft power and hand China a global propaganda victory.

According to a U.S. government assessment, Washington contributes:

USAID cuts to U.N. programs have already been implemented. Rubio, who is also serving as acting administrator of USAID, argued that China lacks the capacity and political will to replace the U.S. as a humanitarian leader.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

US, Philippines conduct joint coastguard drills in contested waters

The coastguards of the Philippines and the U.S. conducted their first joint maritime drills on Tuesday as part of broader military exercises in the South China Sea. The maneuvers, which took place off the coasts of Palawan and Occidental Mindoro, involved communication exercises and search-and-rescue scenarios.

Although routine on paper, the drills take on added significance given China's sweeping claims over the entire South China Sea, including areas well within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone. The Philippines coastguard have repeatedly clashed with Chinese forces in disputed reefs and shoals.

The 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty obliges the U.S. to defend the Philippines in the event of an armed attack.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Sudan accuses UAE of being behind drone strike on Port Sudan

Sudan’s ambassador to the United Nations, al-Hadrith Idris al-Harith Mohamed, accused the United Arab Emirates on Monday of orchestrating a large-scale drone attack on the de facto capital, Port Sudan, on 4 May.

Sudan severed diplomatic ties with the UAE earlier this month, alleging support for the Rapid Support Forces, which broke with the Sudanese government in April 2003, and has since been fighting for control of the country. The Sudanese government receives support from Iran and has recently received training from North Korea.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the war as evolving into a proxy conflict. Last week, congressional Democrats sought to block arms sales to the UAE, citing its alleged involvement in the Sudanese civil war.

Sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief