The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warns that U.S. adversaries are increasingly working together, as the parameters of the Cold War 2.0 solidify and new technology changes the rules of the game. Meanwhile, political progress in Syria as sanctions are lifted, but security and economic threats continue to loom over the prospect of a successful transition. Read on for this, and more… |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Defense Intelligence Agency warns of cooperation among U.S. adversaries
In its latest annual unclassified threat assessment released this month, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency warned that advancements in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum sciences, space, and cyber technologies are reshaping the nature of global threats.
The report emphasized the growing role of unmanned systems, driven by commercial development and affordability, which are likely to become more prominent threats to the U.S. homeland.
A key concern outlined was the ability of such systems to facilitate cost-effective surveillance of American territory.
Strategically, the report assessed that leaders in China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea have accelerated efforts to diminish U.S. global influence. Cooperation among these countries, often through bilateral arrangements, has intensified. This has manifested in coordinated support during regional conflicts and mutual efforts to evade sanctions.
Despite persistent frictions among them, the report concluded that such differences are being set aside to facilitate joint military, security, and intelligence endeavors against the U.S. and its allies.
The report also highlighted migration flows as a potential threat. However, it noted that encounters at the U.S. border had declined by about 80 percent since the start of the Trump administration, falling to roughly 400 per day.
The Middle East
Birth pangs in the birth place of civilization
Syrian president al-Sharaa in Istanbul as U.S. sanctions lifted
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Saturday during a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa that he welcomed the lifting of Western sanctions on Syria.
Al-Sharaa's visit to Istanbul was unannounced but came after the administration of President Donald Trump issued an order lifting sanctions that had been in place for nearly the entirety of Syria's civil war, which began in 2011.
On 13 May, Trump announced the lifting of sanctions while in Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia; he met with al-Sharaa the following day.
On Friday, the U.S. Treasury Department stated that Syria had been granted a general license authorizing transactions involving the interim Syrian administration.
Simultaneously, the State Department issued a 180-day waiver under the Caesar Act to ensure sanctions would not obstruct investment or hinder Syria's recovery and reconstruction efforts.
Reports also emerged that a Turkish delegation led by Deputy Foreign Minister Nuh Yilmaz visited Washington last week for talks with his U.S. counterpart Christopher Landau.
That meeting is believed to have helped advance the decision, with officials discussing the mechanics of implementation.
Al-Sharaa traveled to Türkiye with his defense minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, and foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani. The Turkish side included Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the influential former head of Turkish intelligence, who has served as a crucial conduit between Ankara and the interim Syrian administration. Other Turkish participants included Defense Minister Yasar Guler, National Intelligence Organization Director Ibrahim Kalin, and Haluk Gorgun, secretary of Turkish Defense Industries.
The prominence of the meeting highlights the significance Ankara places on Syria’s reconstruction and its broader strategic interests in the region.
Turkish firms and technical experts are expected to play a leading role in rebuilding Syria.
Ankara is also seeking to limit Israel’s involvement in Syria, where Israeli airstrikes have intensified since the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December.
Alongside the U.S., the European Union has also lifted sanctions on Syria. On Saturday, Trump’s special envoy and current U.S. ambassador to Türkiye, Thomas Barrack, met with al-Sharaa in Istanbul and praised what he called “meaningful steps” taken on foreign fighters and regional diplomacy.
Syria, however, remains extremely fragile. Recent fighting with Druze factions, massacres in Alawite areas on the Mediterranean coast in March, continuing tensions with the autonomous Kurdish-led administration in the north-east, and Israeli occupation of border areas in the south and south-west underscore how limited the government’s reach remains.
Adding to the security threats, rainfall this year has been the lowest since 1997, according to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization. Almost 80% of Syria’s crops rely on rainfall, rather than irrigation. Syria faces the genuine threat of food insecurity in coming months, and the likelihood that farmers will be forced off their land.
One of the triggers for the 2011 revolution against the Assad regime was an influx of destitute farmers into urban areas.
U.S. envoy departs Iran nuclear talks early as trucker strike intensifies
U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff left negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program early on Friday. Iranian state media claimed that Witkoff had to catch a flight, though this is misleading, as he travels by private jet and is not constrained by commercial timetables.
Before the talks began in Rome, Witkoff met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Mossad chief David Barnea. Reports suggest that the Israeli delegation has been urging Witkoff to uphold Washington’s declared red line of zero uranium enrichment by Iran.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Foreign Ministry said that no date had yet been set for the next round of talks with the U.S.
Current discussions are confined to what officials describe as a “political understanding,” with substantive matters deferred to later negotiations.
Mediators have floated proposals for a temporary agreement, including a three-year freeze on uranium enrichment in exchange for partial sanctions relief.
Meanwhile, a nationwide strike by truck drivers in Iran entered its fifth day on Monday, spreading to more than 70 cities, according to a statement by the national truck drivers’ union. Initially confined to a handful of towns, the strike has now reached major cities including Mashhad, Ahvaz, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, Tabriz, Kerman, and Bushehr.
Drivers are demanding relief from surging insurance premiums, which they claim have coincided with reductions in healthcare services. They are also protesting high freight brokerage fees, late payments, reduced diesel quotas, and widespread corruption in the allocation of cargo.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
Trump administration downsizes National Security Council
The administration of President Donald Trump has placed more than 100 officials at the National Security Council on administrative leave, as part of a sweeping restructuring.
The reorganization is being led by acting National Security Advisor Marco Rubio (also Secretary of State), who is working to make the council more hierarchical and aligned with Trump’s strategic priorities. Major U.S. media outlets have reported that some regional and issue-specific teams will be dissolved, while others will be consolidated.
Trump has long filled national security and foreign policy posts with figures who share his skepticism toward foreign interventions. For years, he has portrayed entities such as the National Security Council as components of Washington’s so-called “deep state.”
He has also criticized the council’s bureaucratic structure, favoring decisions made in consultation with a tight circle of long-time advisors over those made by institutional experts.
Cold War 2.0
It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
Russia launches largest aerial assault on Ukraine, amid mass prisoner exchange
President Donald Trump on Sunday labeled Russian President Vladimir Putin “crazy” following Russia’s most extensive aerial bombardment of Ukraine to date. Over two nights, Russia launched 298 drones and 69 missiles, killing 12 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky urged the United States to condemn the strikes, arguing that silence would embolden Moscow.
Trump said he was considering further sanctions, describing Putin as “killing a lot of people… he’s sending rockets into cities and killing people, and I don’t like it at all… he’s gone absolutely CRAZY.”
Trump also criticized Zelensky, remarking that “everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don’t like it, and it better stop.”
Although Putin continues to reject Western calls for a ceasefire, Russia and Ukraine carried out their largest prisoner exchange on Friday, each releasing 1,000 detainees. The agreement was finalized in Istanbul earlier this month following the first direct talks between Moscow and Kyiv in three years.
The main obstacle to a truce remains Putin’s insistence that Ukraine sever its security ties with the West. Ukrainian officials interpret this demand as evidence of Russia’s intent to prolong the conflict.
Both Western and Ukrainian assessments suggest Russia is preparing for a renewed summer offensive, probably towards the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.
50,000 Russian troops have been redeployed from Kursk province (where Ukraine has a foothold) to the vicinity of Kharkiv.
Russian monthly missile and drone production now well exceeds consumption rates, suggesting Russia is stockpiling munitions.
China's premier says Beijing seeking deeper cooperation with Indonesia
Chinese Premier Li Qiang, during a meeting on Sunday with Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, said both sides should strengthen cooperation and strategic coordination, according to Chinese state media. Li identified priority sectors including finance, new energy, the digital economy, artificial intelligence, and maritime industries. He also called for the promotion of “genuine multilateralism.”
Since President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on China earlier this year, Beijing has sought to deepen engagement with Asian partners to cushion the economic impact. Though some tariffs have been deferred, China has intensified efforts to diversify export markets. Prabowo said that ties with China were central to regional stability.
Bilateral trade reached $147.8 billion last year, growing by 6.1 percent. China has been Indonesia’s top trading partner for nine consecutive years.
Jakarta has moved to expand its role in supplying nickel and other raw materials for China’s burgeoning electric vehicle industry.
During a 2023 visit to Jakarta by Li, $21.7 billion in new Chinese investments were pledged, on top of $44.89 billion committed earlier that year when former President Joko Widodo met with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
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What happened today:
1805 – Napoleon Bonaparte crowned King of Italy in Milan Cathedral. 1896 – Tsar Nicholas II crowned Emperor of Russia in Moscow, solidifying Romanov rule. 1940 – British troops begin evacuation from Dunkirk during World War II. 1966 – British Guiana achieves independence, becoming the nation of Guyana. 1994 – U.S. re-establishes diplomatic ties with Vietnam after almost two decades of estrangement. 2002 – NATO-Russia Council established in Rome to improve post–Cold War relations.
