What you need to know

Germany announces end of restrictions on the use of missiles by Ukraine

On Monday, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced that the U.S., Germany, France and the U.K. would no longer impose range restrictions on weapons supplied to Ukraine. This change would allow Kyiv to strike deeper into Russian territory. Until now, Ukraine had been permitted to use long-range Western missiles only within certain geographical limits. The Biden administration had previously resisted lifting these restrictions, concerned that doing so could further escalate the conflict.

Ukraine’s current long-range missile arsenal includes:

Storm Shadow

R-360 Neptune (standard variant)

MGM-140 ATACMS

"Long Neptune" (upgraded variant)

According to comments from Russia’s Foreign Ministry this morning, a memorandum is currently being drafted to outline the principles for a potential peace agreement. The document is expected to establish a framework for a negotiated settlement and the possibility of a ceasefire.

But Russia is continuing to launch heavy attacks on Ukrainian territory.

Russian forces launched 60 drones overnight, killing at least two people and injuring 19, according to Ukraine’s Air Force.

On Sunday, more than 350 explosive drones and at least nine cruise missiles were launched by Russia. The attacks left at least 12 civilians dead and dozens more injured.

Russia’s forces appear to have made some territorial gains in recent months, although the toll has been very high, with thousands of casualties each week. Russia’s military continues to suffer heavy casualties and significant equipment losses.

Russia seeks either a decisive military break through on the front lines to enable it to return to maneuver warfare on Ukrainian territory, or a diplomatic breakthrough. The question of how long it can maintain the current operational tempo remains open.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

U.S. to impose sanctions on Sudan over alleged chemical weapons use

The U.S. State Department has announced its decision to impose sanctions on Sudan, following an assessment that Sudanese government forces used chemical weapons last year against rival paramilitaries.

A State Department spokesperson said on Thursday that the Sudanese government had been urged to halt all chemical weapons use and that Congress had been formally notified of the decision.

The sanctions, set to take effect on 6 June, include restrictions on U.S. exports to Sudan and a suspension of access to U.S. government credit lines. Sudan’s Information Minister Khalid al-Aiser dismissed the accusations as “baseless,” calling them a form of “political blackmail.”

While no details were provided on the timing or location of the alleged chemical attacks, the New York Times reported in January that government forces had deployed such weapons (possibly including chlorine gas) against the Rapid Support Forces in remote areas.

Last year, the U.S. also accused the Rapid Support Forces and its allies of committing acts of genocide, imposing sanctions on the group’s commander, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo.

The two factions have been fighting since April 2023, plunging Sudan into one of the world’s worst humanitarian emergencies and threatening to destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and Sahel regions.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises

France and Vietnam sign $10 billion in bilateral deals

France and Vietnam signed agreements worth more than $10 billion on Monday, covering Airbus aircraft, defense cooperation, earth-observation satellites, vaccines, and rail development.

The accords were signed during French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Vietnam, where he met his counterpart, Long Cuong. French media reported that over 30 separate deals were concluded, expected to significantly expand bilateral trade, which currently stands at €5.3 billion ($6 billion). VietJet agreed to purchase 20 Airbus A330neo aircraft, in a deal estimated to be worth €7 billion ($7.9 billion).

Macron is on a regional tour that includes stops in Indonesia and Singapore, using the trip to present France and Europe as champions of multilateralism and rules-based trade. His visit to Vietnam, the first by a French president in ten years, comes amid a rising global trade confrontation triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive against China.

Like China, Vietnam depends heavily on exports and is under increasing U.S. pressure to purchase more American goods.

During a joint press conference, Macron announced that France was seeking “enhanced defense cooperation” with Vietnam and reiterated support for freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, where Vietnam has longstanding disputes with China.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

China criticizes plan to reclaim control of Darwin Port

China’s Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, has criticized Canberra’s intention to return Darwin Port to Australian ownership, calling the move “questionable.”

Days after touring the port, Qian argued that the Chinese firm Landbridge Group should not be penalized, noting its investment and contribution to the local economy.

During last month’s federal election campaign, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said his government was preparing a plan to reclaim the port on national security grounds. Then-opposition leader Peter Dutton also pledged to restore Australian control if the Liberal Party won. Landbridge holds a 99-year lease on the port. Qian said he hoped Albanese’s government would view the matter “objectively,” citing the broader strategic partnership between China and Australia.

Relations between the two countries soured in 2020, after Canberra demanded a transparent probe into the origins of Covid-19, provoking retaliatory trade measures from Beijing.

Albanese has indicated that if no private buyer for the port can be found, the government may step in directly. Luke Gosling, a Labor MP and special envoy for defense and northern Australia, confirmed that talks with potential buyers are underway.

ASEAN seeks to extend ceasefire in Myanmar and revive peace efforts

Malaysia, which holds this year’s chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), has called for an extension and expansion of the post-earthquake ceasefire in Myanmar, set to expire by the end of May. The proposal was raised during a meeting of ASEAN foreign ministers in Kuala Lumpur on Sunday, ahead of the bloc’s leadership summit scheduled for Monday. Leaders are expected to continue pushing Myanmar’s junta to engage in peace talks to end the ongoing civil war.

Malaysia has also indicated it will maintain separate diplomatic channels with both the junta and Myanmar’s armed groups to help open lines of communication between the warring parties. ASEAN members also agreed to consider appointing a permanent envoy to Myanmar.

Myanmar’s military seized power in 2021, removing the civilian government of Aung San Suu Kyi and triggering mass protests. What followed evolved into a protracted, complex rebellion now controlling large parts of the country.

Myanmar is one of China’s few foreign allies. However, Beijing has struggled to formulate a strategy to deal with the threat that the rebellion presents to the junta. China’s leadership is angry at the support that the junta has given to organized crime groups that run massive scam networks targeting Chinese citizens, which has included kidnapping Chinese to work as forced labor in scam centers across the border. But China is also concerned about the destabilization of Myanmar, and is thus unwilling to support rebel forces. China has no easy options in Myanmar, and must welcome ASEAN’s efforts to extend the ceasefire. Note: China is not a member of ASEAN.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Egypt seeks to connect rail network with Asia and Europe

Egypt’s Transport Minister, Kamel al-Wazir, announced on Sunday that Cairo aims to link its rail network with systems in Asia and Europe. He said the country is expanding its rail infrastructure along seven major corridors, connecting cities along the Red Sea with those on the Mediterranean, and increasing connectivity between northern and southern Egypt.

Al-Wazir also stated that the design phase for a potential crossing, either a bridge or tunnel, from Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula to Saudi Arabia has been completed.

The idea was first floated by King Salman of Saudi Arabia in 2016 as part of the planned NEOM mega-city and business zone.

The Middle East’s center of gravity is shifting from the Persian Gulf towards the Red Sea, as part of the Saudi Vision 2030 plan. This necessitates the development of transport and logistics infrastructure in the countries on Saudi Arabia’s western coast. The vision would also be greatly facilitated by the normalization of ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, and a resolution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

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