Markets rose after a US court blocked a large tranche of the White House’s tariffs. However, many of the tariffs will remain in place and there are several other legislative tools that the administration can use to re-impose the tariffs that have been lifted. The administration is unlikely to give up on its signature international trade strategy.

Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Court ruling curtails Trump’s sweeping tariffs

A federal court ruled on Wednesday that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing wide-ranging tariffs. The U.S. Court of International Trade, based in Manhattan, adjudicates disputes over customs and trade laws.

The administration immediately appealed, setting the stage for a likely Supreme Court battle.

A three-judge panel halted Trump’s global tariffs, including those announced on 2 April under the label “Liberation Day” and justified by emergency powers.

The decision also blocks enforcement of tariffs imposed earlier this year on China, Mexico and Canada, justified at the time to counter fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.

The court granted ten calendar days for administrative orders to “effectuate the permanent injunction.” If upheld on appeal, the decision would freeze most of Trump’s tariffs, though not all.

The ruling suspends Trump’s 30% tariffs on Chinese goods, 25% tariffs on certain imports from Mexico and Canada, and the 10% blanket tariffs on most other imports.

  • However, it does not apply to 25% tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, steel and aluminum. These measures fall under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, a separate legal provision from that invoked in this case.

  • The tariffs imposed on Chinese imports under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 remain in force and were unaffected by the court’s ruling. Originally introduced in 2018 to counter what the U.S. deemed unfair trade practices by China, the Section 301 tariffs (ranging from 7.5% to 25%) have been retained by successive administrations. They continue to apply to a wide array of Chinese imports.

Markets welcomed the ruling. Dow futures rose nearly 500 points (1.1%), S&P 500 futures climbed 1.4%, and Nasdaq futures gained 1.6% in after-hours trading.

The case was brought in April by the Liberty Justice Center, a libertarian legal advocacy group, representing wine distributor VOS Selections and four other small businesses claiming financial harm from the tariffs. In a parallel suit, twelve Democratic-led states sued the administration in the same court, arguing the tariffs unlawfully burdened American consumers.

The panel’s decision was unanimous and applied to both suits. Its members, each appointed by a different president, included Judge Jane Restani (appointed by President Ronald Reagan), Judge Gary Katzmann (by President Barack Obama) and Judge Timothy Reif (by President Trump).

On 2 April, Trump unveiled his “reciprocal” tariff plan, targeting close U.S. allies with significant levies, though he paused implementation for 90 days starting 9 April. He maintained universal 10% tariffs on most imports into the U.S.

Trump bypassed Congress by invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), a 1977 statute enabling the president to respond to extraordinary threats. The law does not reference tariffs. Trump relied on IEEPA to justify 20% tariffs on China and 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods aimed at curbing fentanyl flows into the U.S.

The court found that declaring a national emergency did not give Trump legal grounds to impose those tariffs.

The matter is expected to proceed through the federal circuit and will probably end up in the Supreme Court.

Trump’s trade policy, particularly the imposition of tariffs, has been a cornerstone of his economic agenda. Even as legal proceedings unfold, the ruling could imperil ongoing negotiations with foreign partners.

  • With only weeks remaining in the 90-day tariff pause, the administration has so far reached preliminary agreements with the UK and China.

Other statutory tools remain available to the administration.

Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which underpinned earlier tariffs on steel, aluminum and vehicles, remains untouched by the court's decision. Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act allows up to 50% tariffs in response to discriminatory practices. Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act enables tariffs against specific countries with unfair trade barriers, currently used against China. Section 122 allows up to 15% tariffs in response to trade imbalances.

African Tinderbox

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Former President Kabila re-emerges in volatile Congo

Joseph Kabila, former president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, arrived in the rebel-held city of Goma for consultations, sources close to him told Reuters. His visit complicates a U.S.-backed effort to end the M23 rebellion, which is supported by Rwanda and threatens mineral-rich eastern Congo.

  • Kabila, who left office in 2018 under pressure, has been abroad since 2023.

His return coincides with mounting legal pressure. Congo’s Senate voted last week to strip him of immunity. Government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya accused him of aligning with Rwandan President Paul Kagame to lead the M23 rebellion.

  • Kabila is wanted in Congo for alleged crimes against humanity. Kabila’s political party faces suspension, and authorities have begun seizing its assets.

Though silent since his arrival on Sunday night, the visit has been confirmed by M23-linked figures, including rebel alliance leader Corneille Nangaa.

Washington is pushing for a peace deal by summer, led by White House senior advisor for Africa, Massad Boulos, to be coupled with mineral agreements.

The U.N. and Western governments accuse Rwanda of supplying M23 with troops and arms. Rwanda denies involvement, claiming self-defense against Congolese forces and remnants of the 1994 genocide militia. As M23 advanced on Bukavu in February, Congo President Félix Tshisekedi accused Kabila of sponsoring the insurgency.

U.S. and Kenya co-host defense summit

The U.S. and Kenya are co-hosting the 2025 African Chiefs of Defense Conference (ACHOD) in Nairobi on 28–29 May. Senior military leaders from 37 African countries are attending to discuss shared security threats and enhance cooperation.

This marks the second time the U.S. has co-hosted the conference, following the 2024 summit in Botswana. General Michael Langley, commander of U.S. Africa Command, described the event as a crucial platform to address layered threats and reinforce African-led, U.S.-enabled solutions.

Key topics include counterterrorism, regional stability, maritime security and civilian-military cooperation. The agenda also covers the influence of malign actors and the changing terrorist landscape.

Since its launch in 2017, ACHOD has served as a strategic forum. The 2024 conference in Botswana featured over 70 bilateral meetings and attracted more than 150 journalists. The Nairobi event builds on this momentum, highlighting Kenya’s leadership in regional security.

U.S. Africa Command oversees American military operations and crisis responses on the continent.

Coups between 2020 and 2023 in Mali, Burkino Faso, and Niger have led to the expulsion of U.S. and French troops from the Sahel region, their replacement with Russian mercenaries, and an expansion of the jihadist insurgency in the region. Around 40% of Burkina Faso’s territory is now controlled by jihadists.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Aid deliveries and growing chaos in Gaza

Despite reports on Tuesday that Israeli forces killed one person and wounded 48 others during a stampede at a U.S.-Israeli aid distribution site, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) denied those claims. In a statement, GHF said there were no deaths at its Secure Distribution Sites and only two individuals required on-site medical attention—one for dehydration and another for minor injuries caused by the crowd.

That same day, people stormed a United Nations warehouse in central Gaza. Hamas reportedly opened fire, killing five and shooting others in the knees as punishment for looting.

The U.N. criticized the U.S.-backed aid mechanism, accusing it of fostering “engineered scarcity.” Pope Leo XIV called for a ceasefire and the release of hostages. Meanwhile, Amnesty International condemned Hamas’s violent response to peaceful protests.

Overnight Israeli airstrikes continued. According to Gaza’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health, 30 people were killed.

Cold War 2.0

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Peru talks with China & Brazil on transcontinental railway to bypass Panama Canal

Peru’s Economy Minister Raúl Pérez Reyes said on Tuesday that his government is pursuing high-level talks with Brazil and China on a proposed transcontinental railway connecting the Atlantic and Pacific coasts. If completed, the railway would reduce reliance on the Panama Canal for trade.

The concept gained momentum after the inauguration of Chancay Port in 2023, a Chinese-financed project that sparked renewed interest in the route. Brazil quickly expressed support for the railway following the port’s completion.

Earlier in May, several Latin American leaders traveled to China for a summit on China–Latin America relations. Jorge Viana, chief executive of the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency, who attended the summit, said a transcontinental railway was becoming increasingly feasible. He noted that the route would allow Brazilian exports to reach Shanghai via Peru, cutting approximately ten days from the journey.

In April, a Chinese delegation visited Brazil to discuss infrastructure and regional integration with the Pacific, following strategic agreements signed during President Xi Jinping’s state visit last year.

New Europe

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, & hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Macron in Indonesia

French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Jakarta on Tuesday for the second leg of a tour through Southeast Asia.

Calling Subianto a “brother” and “great friend,” Macron praised the growing defense relationship.

  • France and Indonesia agreed in January 2024 to supply 42 Rafale jets. Indonesia has also ordered two Scorpène submarines and 13 Thales radar systems, five of which are earmarked for the new capital, Nusantara.

During a ceremony at Merdeka Palace on Wednesday, the two presidents signed a number of agreements covering trade, defense, energy and critical minerals.

Subianto emphasized France’s role in modernizing Indonesia’s defense sector through co-production and technology transfer. The leaders also discussed the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

  • Indonesia seeks to replace aging fighter jets and expand its defense capabilities. Subianto has toured China, France, Russia, Türkiye and the U.S. in pursuit of new systems.

  • The Indonesian Air Force currently operates aircraft from multiple countries, many nearing obsolescence.

Separately, Subianto said that Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation, would be prepared to establish diplomatic ties with Israel if Tel Aviv recognizes an independent Palestinian state. Macron echoed support for a two-state solution.

What happened today:


1453 - Fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Empire. 1660 - Charles II restored to the English throne, marking the end of the Interregnum. 1790 - Rhode Island becomes the last of the original thirteen U.S. colonies to ratify the Constitution. 1953 - Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay reach the summit of Mount Everest. 1990 - Boris Yeltsin elected president of the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic. 2020 - SpaceX launches Crew Dragon Demo-2, reviving American crewed spaceflight from U.S. soil.

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