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Various developments over the past 24 hours, including the evacuation of non-emergency staff from U.S. diplomatic missions in Iraq, signal that strikes against Iran, either by the U.S., or by the U.S. with Israel, or by Israel alone, are becoming more likely. Time will tell whether what we are seeing are just pressure tactics, or actual preparations for strikes. Either way, the Iranians are refusing to back down on their demand to be able to enrich their own uranium, and that appears to be a red line for the Trump administration. Without a concession on uranium enrichment, it’s hard to see how a deal on Iran’s nuclear program can be reached. |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Yesterday, 11 June, the U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of non-emergency staff from U.S. embassy Baghdad and U.S. Consulate-General Erbil. US Embassy staff in Israel have been ordered to restrict their movements. The U.S. Department of Defense has also authorized the departure of family members from the entire Central Command (Centcom) area of operations.
Media reports, however, that U.S. embassy Kuwait and Bahrain have ordered evacuations are not correct.
The UK Maritime Trade Organisation yesterday issued a warning to shippers over rising tensions in Gulf waters, citing concerns of military escalation.
The Centcom chief, General Michael Erik Kurilla, has cancelled his planned testimony to Congress today, due to the tensions in the region.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board this morning accepted a resolution tabled by the U.S., U.K., France, and Germany declaring Iran in non-compliance with its IAEA safeguards obligations. This is the first such formal accusation in around 20 years.
The resolution will probably go to the UN Security Council next and if that happens, it is very likely to trigger snapback sanctions on Iran, after a 30 day period.
Following today’s resolution, its foreign ministry immediately announced it would open a new enrichment facility in a “secure” location.
Israeli media is reporting that Israel is preparing to strike Iran (for which there is majority support among the Israeli public according to polling), and that Israel is positioning air defense systems to prepare for possible Iranian retaliatory strikes.
The U.S. currently has four B-52 Stratofortress strategic bombers at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, along with six KC-135 Stratotankers (aerial refuelers), six F-15s (for defensive air cover and precision ground strikes) and one C-5M (for strategic airlift of personnel or equipment.
The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group is positioned off the south coast of Yemen, between the Red Sea and Straits of Hormuz. There is no other Carrier Strike Group within range of Iran, at this time.
The U.S. has diverted 20,000 APKWS missile systems that were to be delivered to Ukraine, to Centcom instead. The APKWS would likely be used against small Iranian military speedboats that could threaten shipping in the Persian Gulf.
Around two squadrons of A10 Warthog ground attack aircraft, which could also be used against Iranian military speedboats in the Gulf, are currently deployed to Centcom.
As of this morning, there are no B2 stealth bombers at Diego Garcia.
B2s would be needed to deliver the largest deep-penetration bunker busting bombs that would potentially be used to hit Iran’s deep-buried nuclear and missile facilities.
Social media reporting, which tracks fast food deliveries in the Virginia/Washington DC area, indicates a large spike in pizza deliveries to the Pentagon since yesterday afternoon. This indicates that staff are working late at the U.S. defense headquarters.
Oil prices have risen approximately 6% overnight.
Betting markets are currently at 50% probability of a solo Israeli strike on Iran before July, with 23% probability of a U.S. strike on Iran.
The White House deadline for Iran to agree to a nuclear deal expires today. Iran has already officially rejected the U.S. proposal delivered last week.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are scheduled to meet on Sunday in Muscat, Oman.
Some U.S. media outlets are reporting that the meeting is cancelled, but that has not been confirmed by either the U.S. or the Iranian side.
Oman this morning confirmed that the talks will proceed.
Iranian media is claiming that these developments are designed to put pressure on Iran at the negotiating table. This is almost certainly correct. But these are also the measures that would be put in place if military strikes were being prepared.
Without a major diplomatic concession from Iran, which would be giving up on domestic enrichment of uranium, it will become increasing difficult for the White House to resist pressure to adopt a more aggressive stance towards Iran.
This may initially encompass increased sanctions, including snapback sanctions by the UN which would reinstate sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal.
But a U.S. response may also include military strikes. These might be limited strikes on oil infrastructure or military bases, or a major bombing campaign against nuclear and missile sites.
The Middle East is entering another dangerous period. Without an Iranian concession on uranium enrichment, the possibility of conflict is becoming increasingly likely.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
American first
The United States and Mexico are in advanced talks to reduce or eliminate President Donald Trump’s 50% steel tariffs on Mexican imports, likely through a quota system.
This arrangement would allow a set volume of Mexican steel to enter the U.S. either duty-free or at a lower tariff, with volumes above that threshold still subject to the full tariff. The exact volume and tariff rate for in-quota imports are still being negotiated.
The U.S. previously imposed 25% tariffs in 2018 but offered exemptions to Mexico and Canada with volume controls. These were later removed in April 2025 as Trump intensified tariff measures. Industry sources say a formal quota for Mexico is now being sought to prevent import surges or transshipment (e.g. Chinese steel routed through Mexico).
Mexico, the third-largest U.S. steel supplier in 2024, has argued the tariffs are unjustified, citing a U.S. trade surplus in steel and the damaging effects on jobs and supply chains.
Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard has urged parity with allies like the UK, which received exemptions.
Cold War 2.0
It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
UK-Indian Naval Exercises
The Indian Navy and the UK Carrier Strike Group have just completed a joint naval exercise (PASSEX) in the North Arabian Sea (northern Indian Ocean). The drill involved INS Tabar, a submarine, P-8I aircraft, and British vessels HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Richmond. Activities included helicopter coordination, tactical maneuvers, and anti-submarine warfare, underscoring growing bilateral defense ties.
This follows increasing strategic engagement between India and the UK, including:
High-level visits in 2024 and 2025 by Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Defense Secretary R.K. Singh.
Singh’s visit to the UK in 2024 marked the first by an Indian Defense Minister in 22 years.
Defense cooperation is part of the India–UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, established under the 2030 Roadmap, which includes collaboration on defense, climate, health, trade, and technology.
Both countries aim to enhance Indo-Pacific security, develop niche defense technologies, and strengthen maritime coordination, especially in the face of increasing Chinese military activity in the Pacific and Indian oceans.
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What happened today:
1381 – Peasants' Revolt reaches London as rebels storm the Tower of London. 1898 – Philippine independence declared from Spanish colonial rule by Emilio Aguinaldo. 1924 – U.S. President Calvin Coolidge signs the Indian Citizenship Act, granting full citizenship to Native Americans. 1964 – Nelson Mandela sentenced to life imprisonment in South Africa's Rivonia Trial. 1987 – U.S. President Ronald Reagan challenges Soviet leader with "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall!" speech in Berlin. 1990 – Russian parliament declares sovereignty from the USSR, accelerating Soviet collapse. 1991 – Boris Yeltsin elected first President of the Russian Federation. 2009 – Iran's disputed presidential election sparks massive protests and global condemnation. 2018 – U.S. President Donald Trump meets North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore for historic summit.
