Israel launched extensive strikes against Iran before dawn, Iran time, this morning. It appears the initial stage of the operation was intended to destroy Iran’s air defense systems, take out senior leaders, and destroy ballistic missile sites. One nuclear site, Natanz, has suffered extensive damage, while the other nuclear sites have not been hit yet. This conflict is likely in its early stages, but so far, Israel has delivered a stunning blow against Iran’s military capabilities. The U.S. is not directly involved (though it is of course providing intelligence and other support), and is still calling for Iran to return to the negotiating table.

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Israel strikes deep into Iran

According to Iranian state television, loud explosions were heard in Tehran at approximately 3:30 a.m. local time. Footage from the Natanz nuclear facility showed further strikes occurring around 4:15 a.m.

Israeli forces also struck several of Iran’s underground missile complexes. While the internal infrastructure likely remains intact, entrances appear to have been hit, complicating access and delaying any immediate retaliatory response.

According to Israeli Army Radio, the assault mirrored tactics used recently by Ukraine against Russia. Thus, kamikaze drones launched from trucks pre-positioned inside Iranian territory. Mossad is believed to have established a covert drone base within Iran, from which part of the strike was conducted using loitering munitions.

The attacks reportedly damaged Iranian missile launchers, limiting Tehran’s ability to retaliate. Iran previously maintained a stockpile of at least 3,000 ballistic missiles and, according to U.S. intelligence disclosed to the media on Thursday, had been producing approximately 50 new ballistic missiles each month. That stockpile is now believed to have been severely degraded. The targeting of missile storage and launch platforms appears aimed at crippling Iran’s capacity for an immediate military response.

Three Iranian nuclear scientists, Abdolrahim Minouchehr, Fereydoun Abbasi (the former head of Iran’s nuclear agency), and fellow scientist Mehdi Tehranchi, were killed in the operation.

General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of Iran’s armed forces, was killed in a targeted strike on his apartment. State television confirmed his death on Friday morning.

A significant portion of Iran’s general staff may have been eliminated in coordinated decapitation strikes. Senior leaders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) Air Force are believed to have been killed during a meeting in a subterranean command facility. Israel’s defense ministry claims that most of the IRGC’s air leadership was neutralized in the attack.

Ali Shamkhani, a senior advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, was also reportedly severely injured in a targeted strike.

All Israeli pilots and aircrew who participated in the mission returned safely to their bases, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi issued a statement accusing the U.S. of complicity:

“The aggressive actions of the Zionist regime against Iran could not have been carried out without coordination with and approval of the United States. Thus, the U.S. government, as the main supporter of this regime, will be held responsible for the dangerous consequences of Israel's adventurism.”

The U.S. reportedly provided real-time reconnaissance and coordination support to Israeli forces before, during, and after the strikes. U.S. aircraft were also involved in facilitating Israeli Air Force operations.

President Donald Trump, speaking on Friday morning, reiterated: “Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb and we hope to return to the negotiating table. We’ll see. There are some people in the leadership who won’t return.”

Trump added later, in a social media post, that: “The next planned wave of strikes will be even more brutal. Iran must make a deal before there is nothing left - and save what was once known as the Iranian empire.

  • The next round of nuclear talks, between U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, is still scheduled to occur on Sunday in Oman.

  • But it appears unlikely at this point that the Iranians will attend.

Iranian officials stated this morning that oil refineries and storage tanks were unharmed, but social media imagery shows strikes on at least one major refinery in the past hour. The nuclear facilities in Bushehr and Isfahan are reportedly untouched so far. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, Iran’s principal site for enriching weapons-grade uranium, had not been targeted. Fordow, built beneath 80 to 90 meters of rock near Qom, remains critical to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Its destruction would be necessary to permanently halt Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran retaliated with the launch of over 100 drones toward Israel this morning. According to Israeli military sources, all incoming drones were intercepted, many over Jordanian, Syrian, and Iraqi airspace. Jordan closed its airspace to commercial aviation but permitted Israeli and allied aircraft to operate freely.

An IDF spokesperson said, “We are in the window of strategic opportunities. We have reached the point of no return and there is no choice but to act now.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a sobering address to the public:

“There are no free wars. You may very well be required to stay in protected areas for a long time, much longer than we have been accustomed to until now.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. has begun repositioning key aerial assets across the Middle East and evacuated most diplomatic personnel from its missions in Iraq on Thursday.

Israeli military planners expect the conflict with Iran to last at least two weeks.

As part of its security posture, Israel has placed the entire West Bank under military lockdown, leaving millions of Palestinians confined under curfew conditions.

In Lebanon, local media report that the government has formally warned Hezbollah against entering the conflict. Lebanese authorities are said to have told the group that any unilateral military action would be considered a violation of state sovereignty and would trigger full accountability. On Thursday, Israel also warned that any Hezbollah attack would result in Lebanon being “leveled”.

Thus far, Iranian-aligned militias in Iraq have remained conspicuously silent. Powerful Iraqi political and militia leader Moqtada al-Sadr stated this morning: "Iraq and its people do not need new wars. We demand the silence of individual and bold voices calling for Iraq's involvement in the war, And we invite you to listen to the voice of reason."

Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites are continuing at this moment.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

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What happened today:

1381 - English rebels kill Archbishop of Canterbury during the Peasants’ Revolt. 1886 - King Ludwig II of Bavaria found dead under mysterious circumstances. 1944 - Germany launches first V-1 flying bomb attack on London. 1956 - Last British troops leave the Suez Canal Zone. 1971 - New York Times begins publishing the Pentagon Papers. 1983 - Pioneer 10 becomes the first man-made object to leave the solar system. 1990 - South African government and ANC agree to end political violence. 2014 - The Islamic State seizes the Iraqi city of Tal Afar amid broader offensive across Iraq.

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