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Israel-Iran conflict escalates as Iranian defenses significantly degraded

Since the start of Israel's military campaign against Iran on Friday morning, Iranian air defense systems and missile forces have been significantly degraded. The Israeli Air Force is now conducting daylight operations over Tehran and last night destroyed a mobile missile launcher before it could fire on Israel. Israel’s defense minister declared this morning that the Israeli Air Force has achieved total air supremacy over Tehran. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that they have destroyed more than 120 Iranian missile launchers, approximately one-third of the estimated total, since Friday.

Following Friday's Israeli strike on the Natanz nuclear facility, Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), stated that while deeper levels of the site appear intact, the loss of power to the cascade hall may have damaged the centrifuges.

Five car bombs exploded in Tehran yesterday. Israel has denied involvement, suggesting instead that domestic opposition groups were responsible.

Although oil prices are rising, Israel has not yet targeted Iranian export infrastructure.

The IDF announced it would begin issuing advance warnings from today before launching strikes inside Tehran, in an attempt to reduce civilian casualties.

The U.K. Maritime Trade Organization has reported increased electronic interference in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz. Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders used to track vessels have been affected, raising the risk of collisions.

Social media imagery shows large numbers of Iranian civilians fleeing Tehran by car, with crowds amassing at border crossings with Türkiye.

Roughly 28 U.S. Air Force aerial refueling tankers (including KC-135s and KC-46s) were transiting the Atlantic on Monday. This movement may relate to the Atlantic Trident exercise involving the U.S., U.K., France, and Finland, which began today, though it could also signal preparations for aircraft ferry operations or other strategic deployments to the Middle East.

The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group and HMS Prince of Wales are deploying to the Middle East region. HMS Prince of Wales is already in the Indian Ocean. The Nimitz, currently in the South China Sea, is roughly four days away, though it can project power before arrival.

As of now, the U.S. has not deployed B-2 bombers to Diego Garcia, from which it launched massive air strikes against the Yemeni Houthis between March and May this year. However, with aerial refueling, B-2s can reach Iranian targets from their bases in Missouri, if required.

The White House continues to position itself as a potential peacemaker. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, Russian President Vladimir Putin may also serve as an intermediary, given Moscow’s relationships with both Tehran and Jerusalem.

Iran’s capacity to launch ballistic and cruise missiles and drones has declined markedly. From barrages of about 100 projectiles on Friday night, the volume fell to around 30 by Sunday. Iran appears to have launched approximately 450 missiles so far.

Iran has shifted its focus to Haifa, where key Israeli oil and petrochemical infrastructure is located. A missile barrage last night damaged pipelines and transmission systems at the Haifa refinery complex. Refining facilities remain operational, though some downstream operations have been affected.

Iran cancelled the sixth round of nuclear talks with the U.S., scheduled for yesterday in Oman. Attending these talks may have provided an off ramp for Iran and helped it make a convincing argument to the U.S. to pressure Israel to pause strikes.

The U.S. embassy branch in Tel Aviv suffered minor damage from a nearby missile strike, according to U.S. ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee. He reported that shock waves caused structural damage, though no injuries were sustained.

Only one missile has been launched from Yemen toward Israel, suggesting that U.S. airstrikes between March and May may have degraded Houthi capabilities.

Iran-aligned militias in Iraq have voiced support for Tehran but have not yet called for attacks against Israeli or U.S. interests. The powerful political and militia leader, Moqtada Al Sadr, has explicitly called for Iraq and its political leaders to stay out of the conflict, in a statement we previously reported on Friday.

Iran’s military forces

Iran’s military structure is defined by a dual command: the Islamic Republic of Iran Army (Artesh) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), alongside the Law Enforcement Command and the Basij militia.

The Artesh functions as a conventional military, with ground, naval, and air branches tasked with national defense.

The IRGC operates independently, commanding its own naval, ground, and aerospace units, and oversees Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs. Its Quds Force conducts external paramilitary operations. The Law Enforcement Command acts as a gendarmerie, maintaining domestic order. The Basij, under IRGC control, is a volunteer force used for internal security and ideological enforcement.

This overlapping structure has produced redundancies and inefficiencies in command and logistics. Additionally, resources are heavily concentrated in the IRGC, which controls Iran’s missile forces. In 2021, Iran’s defense budget was $24.6 billion, or 2.3% of GDP.

Iran’s total armed forces comprise approximately 610,000 active personnel. The Artesh accounts for about 300,000: roughly 230,000 ground troops, 18,000 naval personnel, 37,000 in the air force, and 15,000 in air defense. The IRGC fields around 190,000 personnel, including 15,000 in aerospace, 20,000 in the navy, and 5,000 in the Quds Force. The Basij maintains 90,000 active members and can call upon millions of reservists. Iran also has over 350,000 reserve troops.

Iran’s Air Forces (both IRGC and regular), are now unable to operate against the Israelis. Similarly, most of Iran’s air defense systems appear to have been destroyed. Major strikes, however, have not yet occurred against other military targets, such as the naval or ground forces.

Prospect of regime change

Iran’s civil society opposition, which mobilized mass protests in 2009 after disputed elections, in 2011-2012 in solidarity with the Arab Spring, in 2017-2018 against economic conditions, 2019 after fuel price hikes, and again during the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in 2022, has been effectively suppressed. Despite widespread popular discontent, these groups lack the leadership and organizational structure to mount a sustained challenge at this time.

Exile-based opposition, including the Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK) and supporters of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, enjoys little support inside Iran. MEK retains the capacity for occasional operations within the country, but its historical baggage and foreign ties have eroded domestic legitimacy.

A more potent threat comes from ethnic insurgencies.

In southeastern Iran, the Sunni Baloch group Jaish ul-Adl has been escalating attacks on security forces in recent years. On 4 April 2024, it launched coordinated assaults on IRGC and police facilities in Chabahar, Rask, and Sarbaz, killing at least 16 security personnel. Other major attacks included a bombing in Rask in December 2023 that killed 11 officers, the assassination of senior IRGC officer Hossein-Ali Javdanfar in January 2024, and a series of smaller ambushes throughout the year.

Kurdish groups, particularly the Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), have sustained a low-level insurgency in the northwest. In October 2024, PJAK fighters clashed with IRGC units near Shaho Mountain, killing one soldier. Other Kurdish factions, such as the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan and Komala, continue cross-border operations from Iraq, despite regular Iranian drone strikes.

Among Iranian Azerbaijanis, opposition has taken nonviolent forms. Groups like the South Azerbaijan National Liberation Movement and the Southern Azerbaijan National Awakening Movement promote cultural rights and, in some cases, unification with the Azerbaijan. Their activism, largely symbolic, has led to crackdowns but no major unrest. In March 2025, ethnic clashes in Urmia between Azeris and Kurds resulted in several arrests.

Sunni extremist groups also pose a threat. On 3 January 2024, Islamic State–Khorasan Province (IS-K) carried out twin suicide bombings in Kerman, killing over 100 people in the deadliest terrorist attack in Iran in recent memory. Ansar al-Furqan, an al-Qaeda–linked Baloch group, has claimed smaller-scale attacks on police stations in Zahedan and Bandar Lengeh.

Though the regime remains firmly in control at this time, these disparate elements, from insurgents and jihadists to symbolic cultural movements, illustrate the potential threats to the regime if it is seriously weakened by the ongoing Israeli military campaign.

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