What you need to know

G7 leaders issue warning on Iran and reaffirm Israel’s right to self-defense

The leaders of the G7 countries on Monday issued a joint statement declaring that Iran must never possess nuclear weapons and reaffirming Israel’s right to defend itself. “Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror. We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon,” the statement read. It was issued by the leaders of the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan, along with the European Union.

The G7 leaders pledged to “remain vigilant to the implications for international energy markets and stand ready to coordinate, including with like-minded partners, to safeguard market stability.”

During a joint press conference with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, President Donald Trump hinted at impending action regarding Iran, stating that “something’s going to happen,” and later adding, “as soon as I leave here, we will be doing something.” He continued, “As I keep saying, I think a deal will be signed, or something will happen, but a deal will be signed, and I think Iran is foolish not to sign.”

According to reports in the New York Times and Axios, Trump asked White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Vice President JD Vance to propose a meeting with Iranian representatives this week. However, in an interview with White House correspondent Jennifer Jacobs aboard Air Force One en route back from the G7 summit, Trump said, “I may… it depends what happens when I get back.” Later he said that he’s “not too much in the mood” to negotiate.“

Meanwhile, a U.S. military build up is clearly happening. As we reported yesterday, the USS Nimitz and its carrier strike group has transited the Strait of Malacca, having left the South China Sea early to redeploy to the Centcom Area of Operations. It will join the USS Carl Vinson, thus providing two carrier strike groups. The U.K. has already redeployed its HMS Prince of Wales carrier to the region after it completed exercises with the Indian Navy (it was supposed to continue on to the South China Sea).

Over 30 air-to-air refueling aircraft have also deployed from the U.S. to bases in Europe since yesterday. The B2s stealth bombers, which are probably required to take out deeply buried Iranian facilities such as Fordow, remain in Missouri, but could quickly deploy to either Diego Garcia or else strike Iran directly from the continental U.S. using air-to-air refueling capabilities.

Social media users noted unusual activity late last night near the Pentagon, where both local Domino’s Pizza branches reportedly experienced a surge in orders just before closing time. This is an indicator often interpreted by online sleuths as evidence of heightened late-night activity within U.S. defense institutions.

Overnight, fewer than ten ballistic missiles were launched from Iran at Israel in three separate attacks, taking place just after midnight, at 3:30 a.m. and 4:30 a.m., according to assessments by the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Iranian sources had claimed the assault would exceed all previous ones. The IDF stated that around 30 drones were launched and intercepted by the Israeli Air Force. No casualties or damage in urban areas were reported.

Iran launched 20 missiles at Israel on Tuesday morning, marking the first daytime attack of the current confrontation. At least five injuries have been confirmed, though Israeli military censorship may delay full disclosure of the extent of the damage.

Iran has promised to launch constant drone and missile attacks throughout the day today, obviously in an attempt to overwhelm Israeli air defenses. So far, these have proven to be largely ineffective, although in the past couple of hours at least two missiles appears to have struck the main military intelligence facility in Herzliya, near Tel Aviv.

Israel’s strikes on Iran are continuing apace, with the IDF claiming to have eliminated about half of Iran’s ballistic missile capability.

Israel’s campaign against Iran has so far caused little cost to Israel and resulted in massive damage to Iran’s ability to defend itself and project force outside its borders.

So far, three significant individuals, the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, President Masoud Pezeshkian, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, remain alive. These individuals would be needed if nuclear negotiations were to restart. Israel is maintaining some ambiguity about whether it will strike the Supreme Leader.

Should Khamenei be taken out, then regime stability could be threatened.

Unlike Lebanon, where the degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities last year opened the way for the government to increase its political and security control, in Iran there are no obvious national-level governance alternatives.

The civil society movements that led the Woman Life Freedom protests in 2022 have been effectively suppressed. Only ethnic rebel groups, such as the Kurds and the Balochis, are well organized. In the event of a regime collapse in Iran, chaos is likely to ensue, with consequences for the entire region. That is, unless there is some kind of soft coup against Khamenei from within the regime by a group that is prepared to do a deal with the U.S.

America First

Trump and Starmer sign limited trade pact at G7 summit

U.S. President Donald Trump and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer have signed a modest but symbolically important trade agreement at the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Canada. While far from the “greatest trade deal ever” promised by Trump on the campaign trail, the pact nonetheless represents the first tangible economic bridge between the two countries since Brexit.

The agreement reduces American tariffs on British car exports from 27.5% to 10%, though only for the first 100,000 vehicles annually. Aerospace manufacturers fared better: the 10% tariff on British aerospace components has been scrapped entirely. In return, the United Kingdom will open its market to a greater volume of American agricultural goods, including a capped annual quota of 13,000 tons of beef, and will ease restrictions on ethanol and other biofuel imports.

Steel and aluminum, long-standing irritants in transatlantic trade, remain unresolved. American duties on British metals, imposed under national security justifications, were not lifted, though negotiators are said to be working on a quota-based workaround. Pharmaceutical issues were left off the table entirely, to be addressed in a later round.

Implementation of the deal will be partial and phased. An executive order signed by Mr Trump ensures the immediate application of tariff relief on vehicles and aerospace goods. Other provisions, particularly around industrial metals, await further negotiation.

Though narrow in scope, the agreement signals a mutual desire to reboot Anglo-American economic ties. Whether this détente yields a broader transatlantic trade framework, or fizzles amid nationalist rhetoric and domestic protectionism, remains to be seen. But momentum is in the right direction at this time.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else has to pick a side

Russia escalates missile and drone strikes across Ukraine

Russian forces launched a large-scale overnight assault on Kyiv, launching more than 440 drones and 32 missiles in one of the most intense attacks on the capital since the start of the war. Strikes hit 27 sites, including residential areas and schools. Official reports confirmed the deaths of 14 civilians and 66 injuries, including a 62-year-old U.S. citizen.

Other cities and regions also came under fire overnight, including Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad and Mykolaiv. Ukrainian authorities described the barrage as among the most severe since the invasion began.

Meanwhile, Ukraine completed the final phase of a repatriation agreement brokered in Istanbul, receiving the remains of 1,245 fallen soldiers from Russia. This brings the total number of returned bodies to over 6,000.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces had successfully halted Russian advances in the Sumy region and had retaken control of the village of Andriivka. Russian sources disputed the claim, asserting instead that they had captured new territory and were working to establish a security buffer in the same area. Either way, the conflict on the ground is slow and grinding, with Russia expending horrific human resources (over 1,000 casualties a day), for only minor and often temporary gains of territory.

Elsewhere, Russian officials reported a missile strike on the Kremenchuk oil refinery, a key logistical asset for Ukrainian military operations in the Donbas.

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