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What you need to know

Region poised for American intervention: will they or won’t they?

After returning from Canada and delivering a series of provocative statements to the press and on social media, culminating in the phrase “unconditional surrender”, President Donald Trump convened his national security team at the White House. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard was notably absent, following Trump’s earlier remarks aboard Air Force One that he “doesn’t care what she thinks,” in response to her assessment that Iran is not currently seeking a nuclear weapon.

The anticipated press conference did not materialize, and no official comment was issued beyond anonymous statements indicating that senior U.S. officials would not be available to resume negotiations with Iran for the time being.

Meanwhile, the U.S. military continues to prepare for potential conflict. The Fifth Fleet, headquartered in Manama, Bahrain, redeployed American and allied warships from harbor on Monday, according to social media reports suggesting the move was a precautionary response to rising tensions. More than 30 air-to-air refueling aircraft, having flown in from the U.S. on 16 June, remain prepositioned close to theater.

In Syria, three missiles were reportedly fired at U.S. forces from Iraq-based militants aligned with Iran. Inside Iraq, pro-Iranian members of parliament are voicing opposition to the use of Iraqi airspace for potential strikes on Iran. One MP even suggested withdrawing from the Strategic Framework Agreement treaty with the United States. Iraq’s foreign minister delivered a message on Monday to the American chargé d’affaires in Baghdad, asserting Iraq’s opposition to the use of its airspace for such operations. However, Iraq lacks the air defense infrastructure to enforce such a restriction.

Inside Iran, a steady stream of civilians continue to flee Tehran. Rumors circulated on Monday that former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had been assassinated, but he later appeared on social media to confirm he was alive. Ahmadinejad, known for his incendiary rhetoric against Israel, was reported in 2021 to have visited the Israeli pavilion at Expo 2020 in Dubai—an allegation denied by both Iranian and Israeli authorities. Ahmadinejad himself remained silent on the matter but left the United Arab Emirates early, on the same day the rumors began to spread. He remains a wildcard option for a future Iranian leader in the event that the regime does not survive this campaign.

In the Kurdish areas of northwestern Iran, social media accounts linked to the Kurdish rebel Kurdistan Free Life Party released videos purporting to show fighters taking up positions in local towns. It’s unknown, however, how much territory they really control.

Across Iran, internet access has been throttled or cut off altogether, limiting the flow of information out of the country.

Cyberattacks have also intensified. Bank Sepah and the Central Bank of Iran were both targeted (with Sepah losing all its customer data), and widespread point-of-sale failures have left many residents unable to access cash or purchase essential goods such as fuel. Ninety-five percent of assets held on Iran’s Nobitex cryptocurrency exchange vanished after a hack reportedly carried out by the Israeli-linked group “Predatory Sparrow.” Nobitex had allegedly been used by Iranian entities to bypass sanctions via crypto markets. The value of stolen funds well exceeds $1 billion.

Two heavy airstrikes targeted Tehran on Tuesday. The International Atomic Energy Agency announced that two Iranian centrifuge production sites, the TESA Karaj workshop and the Tehran Research Center, were both hit. These facilities had previously been under IAEA monitoring as part of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew during his first administration. Another large explosion, resulting in a mushroom cloud over eastern Tehran, was captured on social media Wednesday morning.

Tehran vowed to retaliate against Israel overnight. Around 30 missiles were launched, but most appear to have been intercepted by Israeli air defenses. However, Israeli military censorship ensures that we only have a limited picture of the damage being done inside Israel. Some media outlets have speculated that Israel may be depleting its supply of Arrow 3 interceptors, the most advanced system in its arsenal, though there is no public information confirming the size of the stockpile, so such speculations are without much foundation right now.

An Israeli Hermes 900 drone was shot down over Isfahan, marking the first confirmed Israeli hardware loss in this phase of the conflict.

Yemen’s Houthis have remained largely silent, with only one possible missile launch against Israel reported. This may suggest either strategic patience or that the U.S. air campaign conducted between March and May was more effective than previously acknowledged.

Iranian state TV today specifically warned that if the U.S. joins the war, Iran will attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Already, the cost to the oil industry is increasing. The price of insuring a Very Large Crude Carrier (which can carry around 2 million barrels of crude oil) on the Ras Tanura–Ningbo route (linking Saudi Arabia’s largest oil terminal to China’s industrial coast) has nearly tripled, jumping from $0.25 to $0.80 per barrel. Long Range 2 tankers, which carry refined products like diesel and jet fuel, are seeing cost increases of up to $600,000 per voyage when traveling from the Arabian Gulf to northwestern Europe via the longer and safer route around the Cape of Good Hope, avoiding the volatile Red Sea. Amid these rising costs and heightened risk of military escalation, shipowners are demanding payment in advance before loading cargo, and several shipping contracts set for July have already been renegotiated mid-voyage. The cumulative effect is a steep rise in the cost of moving oil through the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, with mounting fears of a broader regional conflict disrupting global energy flows and stoking inflation.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, today spoke to the Iranian nation in a televised address. He said that “the Zionist entity has made a grave mistake and will face consequences. Iran will not forgive the violation of its airspace or forget the blood of its martyrs.” He added that "Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender, and the Americans should know that any US military intervention will undoubtedly cause irreparable damage."

It remains unclear what military capabilities Iran can utilize against Israel now, but it may be that Iran believes Israel will eventually run out of interceptor missiles, at which point Iran’s missiles will have a greater impact.

Iran is also clear that it intends to escalate the conflict to the Persian Gulf and its oil industry in the event of a U.S. intervention. This will enable it to deploy various asymmetrical weapons systems such as drones, mines, short range missiles, fast attack speed boats, and paramilitary units. These are weapons that it cannot deploy against Israel, primarily due to the geographical distance between the two countries.

European leaders and Australia to open talks on security partnership

At the G7 summit in Canada, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa met Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and agreed to launch formal negotiations on a Security and Defence Partnership (SDP) between the European Union and Australia.

The partnership is intended to provide a structured framework for cooperation across a range of non-military security issues. These include the defense industry, cyber resilience, counterterrorism, and economic security. Similar agreements between the EU and other partners also cover maritime security, countering hybrid threats, space policy, and non-proliferation efforts.

An SDP is not a mutual defense treaty and does not require joint troop deployments. Instead, it is designed to strengthen coordination on global security challenges at a time of growing geopolitical friction, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.

“The EU’s offer of a Security and Defence Partnership is a welcome development,” said Albanese. “Australia will take it up warmly and begin work immediately. This opens the door to joint defense procurement and deeper collaboration that will benefit both our industries and our security.”

The talks come amid broader efforts to revive a stalled Australia-EU free-trade agreement. While discussions on the SDP will proceed separately, the announcement signals renewed momentum in bilateral relations, following years of negotiations marked by disagreements over agricultural market access and regulatory alignment.

Von der Leyen framed the move as part of Europe’s broader response to intensifying global competition. “In a time of rising tensions and strategic rivalry, trusted partners must stand together,” she said. “Recognizing the shared security of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, we are launching talks on a Security and Defence Partnership. We are also committed to advancing free-trade negotiations, because economic security matters too.”

Costa described Australia as “an important partner for the European Union,” adding that both regions are committed to multilateralism and the rules-based global order.

The announcement comes as regional flashpoints, including tensions in the South China Sea, instability in the Pacific Islands, and cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure, have drawn closer attention from both Brussels and Canberra.

Albanese, in remarks following the summit, emphasized that “at a time of global uncertainty, it is our collective responsibility to work together to uphold peace, security and economic prosperity. That is what I will continue to do every day, and that has been a key outcome of our work here at the G7 today.”

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