What you need to know

Trump delays decision on Iran as strikes escalate and diplomacy intensifies

Strategic ambiguity from the White House continues to fuel speculation. U.S. media reports, citing administration officials, suggest that President Donald Trump will make a decision on 3 July at the latest. Trump has suggested that he requires two more weeks to determine whether to join Israel’s military campaign against Iran.

In contrast, Israeli media outlets claim that the U.S. is preparing to enter the conflict as early as this coming weekend.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, along with top security officials including Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Defense Minister Israel Katz, and Minister Ron Dermer, held a high-level meeting last night with U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, and other senior members of the U.S. administration.

For now, Trump’s own statement on social media may offer the clearest position: “The Wall Street Journal has No Idea what my thoughts are concerning Iran!”

Diplomatic efforts remain underway. The European Union’s foreign policy chief, along with the foreign ministers of the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, are meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva today. Much will depend on the outcome of these talks. Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Ahmed Mohamed Abdelatty has also spoken with Araghchi and U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff by phone.

Meanwhile, at least six Iranian government aircraft have arrived in Muscat, the capital of Oman, over the past 48 hours. Rumors suggest these may be carrying diplomats ahead of possible talks on Iran’s nuclear program, which Tehran has denied. Other reports claim the flights are evacuating family members of senior Iranian officials.

Heavy Israeli airstrikes continue across Iran, with overnight operations involving more than 60 fighter jets targeting missile facilities and a nuclear research center in Tehran, according to the Israel Defense Forces. An explosion in Tehran’s Gisha neighborhood is believed to have been a targeted strike on an Iranian nuclear scientist.

Israel’s defense minister, this morning said that he intends to force the evacuation of all civilians from Tehran, a city of 9 million people, in order to allow greater freedom of action for the IDF and to “destabilize the regime”.

Israel is also continuing operations in Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted drone strikes in the south, reportedly killing at least four individuals identified as Hezbollah operatives in the past 72 hours.

The U.S. is conducting a major airlift operation in support of regional deployments. At least ten C‑17 military transport aircraft have been observed delivering weapons and equipment from Europe to U.S. bases in the Middle East. In addition, F‑22 stealth fighters were seen departing Lakenheath Air Base in the United Kingdom this morning, likely bound for Jordan, where they are expected to be staged for potential missions against Iran.

On the battlefield, Iran’s missile performance appears to be improving. Some analysis suggests that interception rates by Israeli air defenses over the past two days may be as low as only 65%. This compares with nearly 90% earlier in the week. However, Israeli military censorship makes such assessments very difficult, and at this point we can only really make educated guesses about interceptions based on images on social media; which is hardly accurate.

What we do know is that Iran is deploying more advanced weapons. In particular, as we reported yesterday, Iran is using its most advance missile, the Khorramshahr‑4, which is equipped with multiple warheads that leave the atmosphere and scatter their warheads at approximately 7km (4.3 miles) altitude, complicating interception efforts.

The IDF estimates that Iran retains around 100 mobile missile launchers, with roughly 200 destroyed to date.

Across the border in Iraq, tensions are rising, as Iraqi military units yesterday began withdrawing from the border area with Syria near the city of Mosul. Their explicit mission was to prevent pro-Iran militias from launching attacks on US forces in Syria or drone or missile attacks on Israel. The Iraqi military is thus indicating that it is not willing to be drawn into conflict with the militias should they wish to launch attacks on Israel. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of supporters of Shia religious and political leader Moqtada Al Sadr have gathered in Baghdad today to condemn the Israeli campaign against Iran.

This morning drones entered Israeli airspace in the area of the Golan Heights, possibly originating from Iraqi militias.

The rising Middle Powers: India, Türkiye, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan, the GCC nations

Indonesian President Prabowo meets Putin amid nuclear ambitions and trade pivot

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg, underscoring Jakarta’s growing engagement with Moscow across trade, energy, and strategic cooperation.

The meeting coincided with Prabowo’s absence from the G7 summit in Canada, fueling Western concerns over a potential tilt toward Russia. The two countries held joint naval drills last year, and Russia has backed Indonesia’s entry into the BRICS bloc.

Despite reaffirming Indonesia’s neutral foreign policy and commitment to peaceful diplomacy, Prabowo has yet to visit Ukraine (unlike his predecessor, Joko Widodo) and has prioritized broadening ties with China, the U.S., and now Russia, while avoiding clear military alignments.

Indonesia is also pressing ahead with plans to build its first nuclear power plant by 2032, as it seeks to meet rising energy demand and reduce carbon emissions. Among the bidders are Russia’s Rosatom, China’s CNNC, and U.S.-based NuScale. Although rich in renewable potential, Indonesia still depends heavily on coal, prompting the search for more sustainable alternatives.

Indonesia has also agreed to promote the draft Treaty on the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects, a proposal first introduced by Russia and China in 2008.

Economic ties with Russia are also tightening. Jakarta is set to sign a free trade agreement with the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) this year, following the conclusion of substantive negotiations.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

The White House has publicly voiced “deep concern” over China’s proposed “super-embassy” at Royal Mint Court in London, throwing the project’s approval process into uncertainty.

The U.S. has warned several times that the embassy’s proximity to underground fiber-optic cables linking the City of London and Canary Wharf could allow Chinese access to sensitive communications. This follows earlier private pressure from U.S. officials urging Downing Street to reject the project on national security grounds.

The Dutch parliament has also raised similar alarms, while British intelligence continues to assess the risk of surveillance or cyber intrusion.

The embassy plan, which was initially rejected on security grounds two years ago, is now under government review following a formal inquiry.

Labour is expected to make a final decision, but local campaigners say their longstanding opposition has been sidelined by geopolitical maneuvering. Local residents have been loud in their opposition to the development.

The Chinese government purchased the 2-hectare site in 2018 for £255 million, but growing international concern, particularly over the strategic location of Britain’s critical communications infrastructure, has made the future of the embassy increasingly fraught.

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