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What you need to know

Iran reels from strikes as questions mount over nuclear material

Yesterday morning, the U.S. conducted coordinated strikes on Iran’s three main nuclear sites—Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow (the latter being buried particularly deep underground). Twelve GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs were dropped on Fordow via its air shafts, while one GBU-57 each targeted Natanz and Isfahan. In parallel, thirty Tomahawk cruise missiles were launched from submarines in the Persian Gulf.

The B-2 bombers that carried out the mission departed secretly from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, flew across the Atlantic, and returned in a round-trip mission lasting 37 hours. Meanwhile, in a clever diversion, another group of B-2s, accompanied by refueling aircraft with transponders active, flew westward across the Pacific toward Hawai‘i and Guam, likely to distract from the true direction and timing of the operation.

There is no doubt that the Iranian nuclear facilities have been severely damaged. Whether Fordow, buried under at least 80 meters of rock, has been entirely destroyed remains unclear, but it is likely to be out of operation for the foreseeable future.

However, in the 48 hours preceding the strike, trucks were observed by commercial satellite operators entering and exiting the Fordow site. There is growing concern that Iran may have removed some or all of the 400kg of uranium enriched to 60% that had been stored there.

Thus far, Iran’s response has been restrained. A single missile, intercepted over Tel Aviv, was launched last night, and another missile landed in the south this morning. Last night’s strike marked the first missile attack on Israel in over 20 hours, a considerable reduction in the intensity of Iranian missile strikes on Israel in comparison to the preceding 72 hours. Overall, the damage inflicted has so far been far below what even Israel expected before the outbreak of the current conflict.

Iran’s parliament has unanimously passed a resolution calling for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yet under Iran’s constitutional structure, it lacks the authority to enforce such a move.

The question remains whether Iran is genuinely prepared to expand this war, and thus risk direct conflict with its neighbors, and further conflict with the U.S. Iran retains the capacity to do so, but the consequences could be existential for the regime.

Thus far Iran is losing, badly, and broadening the conflict would place it at odds with countries it has spent the past five years reconciling with.

Iran’s options are constrained by the destruction of its proxy networks in Syria and Lebanon and the attrition of its missile forces over the ten days since Israel’s campaign began. Though it retains the ability to foment serious disorder in the Persian Gulf, doing so would further isolate a regime already severely weakened.

Iran’s strategic latitude is narrow….and narrowing still.

Pro-Iran militias in Iraq have become increasingly vocal in recent days. And the government, which is mostly made up of the political arms of those militias, has condemned the Israeli and U.S. strikes. On Friday, large peaceful protests against the Israeli campaign against the Iranian regime were held in Baghdad by followers of Moqtada Al Sadr. But so far there have been no attacks against U.S. military or diplomatic facilities inside Iraq.

The U.S. embassy in Lebanon yesterday announced that it was evacuating family members and some non-emergency staff. This is presumably a precautionary measure in case missile fire from Iran into Israel (which often passes over Lebanon), increases. It may also possibly stem from concerns that terrorist attacks might be conducted by Iranian regime elements against U.S. interests in Lebanon. It would be unusual for an embassy to make such a move without specific intelligence warning of a genuine threat.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Suicide bomber kills dozens in attack on Syrian church

Two terrorists in Syria opened fire, then detonated an explosive vest inside a Greek Orthodox church crowded with worshippers on Sunday, killing at least 22 people and injuring 63 others, according to state media. The attack occurred in Dweil’a, on the outskirts of Damascus, inside the Mar Elias Church. The Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), citing the Health Ministry, provided the casualty figures.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based war monitor, reported that at least 19 people were killed and dozens more wounded, though it did not offer a precise tally. Children were among the dead.

The assault marked the first of its kind in Syria in several years and comes at a time when Damascus, now under de facto Islamist rule, is seeking to win the support of minority groups. President Ahmad al-Sharaa, who is struggling to establish effective control across the country, faces mounting concerns about the presence of extremist cells inside and outside his government.

No group immediately claimed responsibility for the bombing. At a news conference, Syrian Interior Ministry spokesman Noureddine al-Baba stated that preliminary investigations point to the Islamic State group. According to the ministry, a gunman entered the church, opened fire on congregants, and then detonated an explosives vest. Some witnesses claimed the assailants were not speaking Arabic, suggesting that the attackers may have been foreign fighters, of which the Islamic State has many.

The newly established government in Damascus, in place since President Bashar al-Assad fled on 8 December, continues to struggle with asserting control over militant groups operating both within its ranks and autonomously. It also faces persistent defiance to its authority from Kurdish and Druze communities. Meanwhile, Israeli forces occupy significant portions of western and southwestern Syria. And the Alawite community on the Mediterranean coast is still reeling from brutal massacres carried out in March by gunmen linked to the new government, in which more than 1,500 people were killed.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Kyiv suffers new drone barrage as war grinds on

Ukraine reported that another wave of Russian drone attacks struck the capital, Kyiv, killing at least six people, just a day after the country’s top military commander pledged to intensify strikes on Russian territory.

Between late Saturday and early Sunday, Russian forces launched at least 47 drones and fired three missiles into Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian air force.

Efforts to revive peace negotiations remain stalled. The last direct meeting between Ukrainian and Russian officials took place nearly three weeks ago.

Ukraine has carried out retaliatory strikes throughout the war, hitting military and energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory.

Russia claimed in April to have taken full control of the Kursk region and denies any Ukrainian presence there. Moscow continues to occupy around a fifth of Ukraine, including four regions it claims to have annexed since 2022, in addition to Crimea, which it seized in 2014.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of deliberately sabotaging peace efforts in order to prolong the war and seize additional territory. On Sunday, the Russian army said it had captured the village of Petrivske in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region.

Heavy fighting continues along multiple sectors of the front over the weekend, including in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian troops appear to be prioritizing offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast. The intensity of Russian attacks has increased notably this year, coinciding with U.S. efforts to broker a political resolution to the war. That elevated pace has now been sustained for more almost six months, but at a terrible cost. This month, Russia passed a grim milestone: its military has now suffered more than one million casualties (killed and wounded) since launching its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

In earlier phases of the war, Russian forces struggled to conduct large-scale simultaneous offensives, instead rotating limited attacks across different sectors. At present, however, they appear to be pressing forward with at least three large-scale operations near Borova-Lyman, Kostyantynivka, and Novopavlivka. Troop deployments have also intensified in northern Sumy Oblast from where Ukraine launched its successful offensive into Russia’s Kursk province last year.

Despite the stepped-up operations, Russian forces have failed to make major territorial gains. This is largely due to their continued reliance on poorly trained infantry suffering from terrible morale, and the growing effectiveness of Ukraine’s drone-based defenses.

Leaked phone call puts Thai prime minister under pressure to resign

Thailand’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is facing mounting pressure to resign after a leaked phone call with Cambodia’s influential former leader appeared to show her criticizing the Thai military amid a simmering border dispute.

Each side blamed the other for the clash, and although military leaders expressed a desire to de-escalate, both have since reinforced troops and ramped up rhetoric.

Paetongtarn, aged 38, has been in office for just ten months, having replaced a predecessor who was removed by the courts.

In the recording, which took place on 15 June, Paetongtarn can be heard referring to Hun Sen as “uncle” and appeared to criticize the Thai army after a Cambodian soldier was killed during a border skirmish last month.

She also hinted at divisions between her civilian government and the country’s powerful military establishment.

The comments, confirmed as authentic by both governments, provoked outrage in Thailand. Critics accused her of compromising national interests.

The two countries share a 508-mile (817-kilometer) land border, largely mapped during the French colonial occupation of Cambodia, that has frequently been a source of tension and occasional military clashes.

On Wednesday, Paetongtarn sought to downplay the controversy, telling reporters that her intention had been to defuse tensions and that the call was “private” and “should not have been made public.” She described her remarks as a “negotiation tactic,” not a declaration of allegiance.

Hun Sen, who ruled Cambodia with an iron grip for nearly four decades, stepped down in 2023 and transferred power to his son, Hun Manet. He remains a dominant figure in Cambodian politics, currently serving as president of the Senate, and is a close ally of Paetongtarn’s father, the former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

Thailand has imposed new restrictions at border crossings, taken control of key checkpoints, and threatened to cut electricity and internet services to Cambodian towns near the frontier. In retaliation, Cambodia has banned Thai films and television dramas, halted imports of Thai fruits and vegetables, and filed a case at the United Nations’ International Court of Justice.

In 2011, troops from both countries clashed near the 11th-century Preah Vihear temple, a UNESCO World Heritage site. That fighting displaced thousands and left at least 20 people dead.

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