What you need to know

Iran launches missile strike on U.S. base in Qatar, Trump declares peace

Iran launched a missile attack on a U.S. base in Qatar on Monday evening. The missiles targeted Al Udeid Air Base, located outside Doha, but were mostly intercepted by air-defense systems before reaching their intended targets. A U.S. defense official confirmed there were no reports of U.S. casualties. The attack involved both short-range and medium-range ballistic missiles.

Al Udeid, the forward headquarters of U.S. Central Command, hosts thousands of American service members and is one of the most strategically significant U.S. military installations in the Gulf. However, most U.S. aircraft had been moved from the base last week.

Iranian officials had pledged retaliation following U.S. airstrikes on Sunday that hit three nuclear-related sites inside Iran. The strike on Al Udeid can only be described as symbolic.

President Donald Trump described Iran’s launch of 14 missiles as “a very weak response,” noting that 13 were intercepted and one landed in what he called a “nonthreatening” area. Trump claimed Iran had “gotten it all out of their system” and thanked Tehran for providing “early notice.” He expressed hope for de-escalation, writing, “Perhaps Iran can now proceed to peace and harmony in the region, and I will enthusiastically encourage Israel to do the same.”

Trump then announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire following nearly two weeks of missile exchanges, stating that the “12-day war” would conclude through a phased 24-hour process.

“Congratulations to everyone. It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire (in approximately six hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in-progress, final missions), for 12 hours, at which point the war will be considered ended,” Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social.

He added that Iran would begin the ceasefire, followed by Israel 12 hours later. The formal conclusion would come at the 24-hour mark. “An official end to the 12-day war will be saluted by the world,” he wrote.

Trump praised both countries for their “stamina, courage, and intelligence” in ending the hostilities.

Israel intensified its operations against Iranian targets overnight, focusing particularly on facilities linked to the Basij militia.

Early in the morning, an Iranian missile struck a residential building in the southern Israeli city of Beersheba, killing at least four civilians.

The Israeli government issued a statement on Tuesday morning announcing its acceptance of the ceasefire, which it said began at 7:00am.

According to the statement, Operation “Am Kalavi” achieved its objectives and more, eliminating two existential threats (nuclear and ballistic) from Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convened senior military and intelligence officials to review the results, which included Israeli air superiority over Tehran, the destruction of strategic sites, and the killing of a senior Iranian nuclear scientist and hundreds of Basij operatives.

Israel thanked the President of the United States for his support and confirmed the ceasefire was reached in full coordination with him. The government warned it would respond forcefully to any violation and urged citizens to continue observing Home Front Command directives.

However, around 10:30am local time, Iranian forces reportedly launched another missile toward Israel, according to Israeli officials and social media imagery. The Israeli military stated that its air-defense systems were actively intercepting incoming threats and instructed the public to seek shelter and remain indoors.

Israeli media reported that the missile launched violated the ceasefire agreement. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich responded by declaring, “Tehran will tremble.”

Iran, however, officially denied conducting any missile attacks following the ceasefire announcement.

The ceasefire therefore remains very fragile.

Multiple drone attacks were reported across Iraq overnight. At 2:10am local time, four drones targeted Al-Taji base. Two hit the U.S.-made TBS-77 radar system, causing significant damage. A third struck an armored division factory, while the fourth landed outside the base perimeter. Other attacks were reported at Baghdad International Airport, Imam Ali Air Base, Balad, and Asad. Most were intercepted, with the most damage being done at Taji. The mostly likely perpetrators are Iran-backed militias, but rumors are spreading inside Iraq that these are Israeli false flag attacks.

Three people were killed in an Israeli drone strike that targeted a vehicle in Kfar Dajal, in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiyeh governorate this morning. Such strikes have remained frequent, despite a ceasefire agreement reached with Lebanon in November. On Monday night, Israeli warplanes carried out airstrikes on what the military described as Hezbollah infrastructure and weapons depots across southern Lebanon.

Oil prices have dropped by more than 11% since Monday, reflecting market expectations that whatever conflict is going on between Israel, Iran, and the U.S., no side intends at this time to target the international oil and gas industry. Indeed, Israel’s strikes on Iran have been notable for their avoidance of hitting the highly vulnerable oil export infrastructure.

The planet will be fine, it’s the humans who should be concerned

WMO report on Asia’s climate in 2024

The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that Asia is warming nearly twice as fast as the global average, with 2024 ranking as either the warmest or second warmest year on record. Its State of the Climate in Asia 2024 report details the region’s exposure to worsening climate extremes, including record marine heatwaves, accelerated glacier loss, and rising sea levels—all contributing to widespread social and economic disruption.

Temperature: Asia’s average temperature in 2024 was 1.04°C above the 1991–2020 baseline. Prolonged and intense heatwaves affected East, Central, and Southeast Asia, with Myanmar registering a new national record of 48.2°C.

Oceans: Sea surface temperatures reached all-time highs, with nearly 15 million square kilometers of ocean—around one tenth of the global total—affected by marine heatwaves. The region’s surface waters are warming at 0.24°C per decade, twice the global average.

Sea level rise: The rate of sea-level rise along the Indian and Pacific Ocean coasts of Asia outpaces the global average, increasing the vulnerability of low-lying coastal areas.

Glaciers: Twenty-three out of 24 monitored glaciers in the High-Mountain Asia region lost mass during 2023–2024. The Urumqi Glacier in the Tian Shan experienced its worst recorded mass loss since measurements began in 1959.

Extreme weather is increasing:

The report notes the pressing need for stronger early warning systems and greater climate preparedness across Asia. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo highlighted the escalating toll of extreme weather and stressed the critical role played by national meteorological and hydrological services in safeguarding lives and livelihoods.

Move fast and break things

Supreme Court backs Trump deportation policy to third countries

The U.S. Supreme Court has granted permission for President Donald Trump’s administration to resume deporting migrants to third countries without first offering them an opportunity to raise claims of potential torture or harm. The unsigned order, issued on Monday, lifted a lower court injunction and drew a sharp dissent from the Court’s three liberal justices.

The decision reverses a ruling by U.S. District Judge Brian Murphy, who had determined that the administration’s policy likely violated constitutional due process protections. His order had required that migrants receive notice and a meaningful opportunity to assert fear-based claims before being removed.

The Department of Homeland Security had moved to accelerate deportations to countries other than migrants’ own, prompting a class action lawsuit on behalf of those at risk. Murphy had previously blocked the removal of eight men to South Sudan, citing the high likelihood of violence in the destination country.

Following the Supreme Court’s intervention, Murphy clarified that his specific injunction regarding those eight men remained in force.

The administration argued that the policy complies with due process and is essential for deporting migrants convicted of serious crimes, particularly when their home countries refuse repatriation. Officials stated that the individuals slated for removal to South Sudan had committed offenses including murder, arson, and armed robbery.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, writing in dissent and joined by the other two liberal justices, accused the administration of defying court orders and warned that the Court’s decision rewarded noncompliance. She cited earlier deportations to Guantánamo Bay and El Salvador as further examples and cautioned that judicial authority was being eroded.

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