Debate swirls over the success, or otherwise, of the U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear program. However, we are a long way away from an accurate assessment, and if Iran reduces its cooperation with the IAEA, our ability to assess its nuclear program will become even more difficult. Right now, there is little sign of Iran returning to the negotiating table, as it recovers from almost two weeks of devastating air strikes. |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Did they or didn’t they?
Speculation continues to swirl over the effectiveness of U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, particularly at Fordow. Two main sources drive the uncertainty. Satellite imagery shows little surface damage at the site, and reports by CNN and The New York Times (citing a leaked preliminary assessment from the Defense Intelligence Agency) suggest with “low confidence” that the strikes failed to destroy the facility completely.
There are also unconfirmed claims that around 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium (purportedly enriched to 60%, just short of weapons-grade) had been removed from Fordow prior to the attack. This remains, at present, pure speculation.
Iran is also believed to possess another undisclosed nuclear site, recently discussed with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), though its location is not public. The agency has also previously detected trace amounts of uranium enriched to as much as 87%.
In sum, much about Iran’s nuclear program remains opaque. A reliable assessment of the impact of the U.S. strikes on Sunday will take time to emerge. Early conclusions, especially those circulating in media reports, should be treated with great caution.
For now, the most important signal will come from the IAEA’s initial findings. Unfortunately, Iran’s parliament has just approved a bill to suspend cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency. Whether this will lead to Iran leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is something to monitor.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. will join the Israeli military campaign against Iran. The chance of Iran expanding the conflict into Iraq and the Persian Gulf. The possible threat to the Iranian regime from internal opposition groups, and the regional fallout from any possible collapse of the Iranian government. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
NATO summit today
NATO leaders are gathering today in The Hague, the capital of The Netherlands. A key issue will be the U.S. insistence that allies raise their contribution to defense spending to 5% of GDP as the threat from Russia refuses to go away.
NATO Secretary‑General Mark Rutte has also expressed concern over China’s growing military power, noting that countries with close ties to the alliance (especially Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) share this unease.
Speaking at a news conference in The Hague ahead of the summit, Rutte highlighted that between three and five Chinese defense firms now rank among the world’s ten largest, a shift from just a few years ago when none appeared on the list.
However, in a worrying sign, a couple of very important non-NATO allies are not attending.
Newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae‑Myung will not attend the NATO summit, citing domestic obligations, and concerns over instability linked to recent Middle East tensions (a rather vague reason that probably hints at unhappiness at U.S. foreign policy).
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba of Japan has canceled his participation at the summit. The last minute decision, announced on 23 June, was attributed to “various circumstances,” including the absence of scheduled meetings with NATO’s Indo-Pacific partners and U.S. President Donald Trump.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya will represent Japan instead.
Ishiba’s cancellation came despite a prior confirmation of attendance.
Tokyo also recently canceled an annual high-level dialogue with the U.S. after Washington urged Japan to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, up from a previously requested 3%.
Japan has been participating in NATO summits since 2022, when it was first invited following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
British and Australian navies confront China’s maritime claims
The British and Australian militaries have challenged China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea through a joint freedom-of-navigation patrol near the contested Spratly Islands. On Monday, HMS Spey, a British River-class offshore patrol vessel, and HMAS Sydney, an Australian Hobart-class destroyer, conducted coordinated maneuvers consistent with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.
China asserts sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, including the Spratly archipelago, parts of which are also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Brunei.
The United States, along with a growing number of its allies, has stepped up naval activity in the region in recent years to challenge restrictions on freedom of navigation imposed by claimant states.
Since early 2025, the Philippines has reported a sharp rise in confrontations involving Chinese coast guard, naval, and maritime militia vessels operating within its exclusive economic zone.
These incidents have included high-speed rammings, water cannon bursts, and low helicopter flybys—such as a Chinese navy helicopter recently coming within just ten feet of a Philippine patrol plane over Scarborough Shoal. Philippine authorities have condemned the use of water cannons and deliberate collisions against research vessels near Sandy Cay, while China has accused those vessels of unauthorized entry.
One of the most notable episodes occurred in August 2024, when the Philippine Coast Guard’s BRP Cape Engaño was rammed by multiple Chinese vessels off Sabina Shoal, leaving a three-foot gash above the waterline during what Manila described as a trawl-and-surround maneuver.
Other confrontations in May and June featured similar water-cannon attacks at Second Thomas Shoal, as well as the use of military-grade lasers.
These incidents stem largely from China’s insistence on enforcing its so-called nine-dash line, which claims sovereignty over vast portions of the South China Sea, including areas that lie within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
A 2016 arbitral ruling in The Hague rejected China’s claims, though Beijing continues to disregard the verdict.
In defiance, the Philippines has maintained a grounded navy ship at Second Thomas Shoal since 1999 and has continued to dispatch regular resupply missions—actions that have repeatedly drawn hostile responses from Chinese forces.
Just days before the patrol near the Spratlys, HMS Spey also transited the Taiwan Strait, highlighting the enduring tensions between China and Taiwan, a self-governing democracy that is officially part of China. Taiwan’s foreign ministry thanked the United Kingdom on X for “standing with Taiwan in support of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.”
African Tinderbox
Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies
Islamic State & Al Shabaab activity surges in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa
From the Sahel across to the Horn of Africa, jihadist groups have been ramping up activity in recent weeks.
In recent days, Nigeria has witnessed a sharp uptick in jihadist violence, particularly in the northeastern state of Borno. On 20 and 21 June, two separate suicide bombings, carried out by female attackers, struck a crowded fish market and a nearby restaurant in the town of Konduga, killing at least 22 people and injuring dozens more. These attacks bear the hallmarks of the jihadist group Boko Haram or the Islamic State West Africa Province. On 23 June, militants targeted civilians in rural Borno, killing at least eight youths in ambush-style assaults. In response, Nigerian military forces launched airstrikes and ambushes between 21 and 22 June, killing several insurgents and arresting around ten.
Meanwhile, internal strife within Boko Haram led to the reported execution in recent days of a senior leader attempting to form a splinter faction, along with three of his associates.
The confluence of mass-casualty attacks, rural ambushes, and internal jihadist purges demonstrates the escalating instability in Nigeria’s northeast.
The Uganda People’s Defence Forces yesterday announced the deaths of seven soldiers in clashes with al‑Shabaab militants during an operation to retake a key bridge in Lower Shabelle, southwest of Mogadishu.
On 23 June, Niger’s forces reported the killing of nine Islamic State militants, including a senior commander, and the arrest of 31 others during operations in the Tillabéri region. On 24 June, jihadist militants ambushed troops in the village of Tassia, also in Tillabéri, killing 20 soldiers and one civilian. Authorities claim dozens of militants were also killed in the clash.
Somalia’s National Intelligence and Security Agency, supported by domestic and international forces, conducted operations this week in the Gaycad–Mabaax area of Hiiraan, killing 13 from the Islamic State-linked al‑Shabaab group and seizing weapons.
President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud of Somalia has blamed the Iran-backed Houthis for fueling Al Shabaab’s resurgence. The transnational jihadist group al‑Shabaab is increasingly cooperating with Yemen’s Houthi rebels, despite ideological differences. Both share a common enmity toward Western governments. A United Nations report published on 6 February warned that these links pose a growing threat to the Horn of Africa and Red Sea regions. Between June and September 2024, al‑Shabaab received weapons via the ports of Marka and Baraawe in Lower Shabelle. The arms were used in attacks on African Union Transition Mission camps last year.
The Somali army continues to face setbacks in its campaign to retake territory from the jihadists. Al‑Shabaab remains active across the country. A major offensive has been underway in the Shabelle region since February.
On 11 March, coordinated bombings and an armed assault on Hotel Cairo in Beledweyne killed at least 21 people.
On 17 May, U.S. and Ethiopian airstrikes targeted militant positions near Mabaax.
Forces from Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates are backing Somali government operations against the insurgents.
Meanwhile, at least 120 children have been kidnapped in northern Mozambique in recent days, according to a new Human Rights Watch. The abductions were reportedly carried out by al‑Shabaab. Children have been forced to act as porters, perform physical labor, serve as child soldiers, or coerced into marriage.
Mozambique’s government has struggled to contain the insurgency in Cabo Delgado since 2017, relying heavily on forces from Rwanda, South Africa, and other regional partners. In 2020, the militants were accused of beheading civilians, including children. Witnesses say abducted youths have since taken part in attacks. The Human Rights Watch reports a resurgence of violence and child kidnappings over the past two months.
A Kenyan court yesterday sentenced two individuals to 30 years in prison for aiding the 2019 DusitD2 hotel attack in Nairobi. The pair provided forged documents and logistical support to al‑Shabaab operatives.
Jihadist activity, splint between Al Shabaab, the Islamic State, and Boko Haram, is dramatically increasing across a belt of sub-Saharan African nations from the west coast to the Horn of Africa. It’s not much reported in the media, but it’s rising and will soon start to have a strategic impact across the region.
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What happened today:
1876 - Battle of the Little Bighorn results in major U.S. Army defeat. 1950 - North Korea invades South Korea, starting the Korean War. 1975 - Mozambique gains independence from Portugal. 1981 - Microsoft is incorporated in the state of Washington. 1991 - Slovenia and Croatia declare independence from Yugoslavia. 1996 - Khobar Towers bombing in Saudi Arabia kills 19 U.S. service members. 2006 - Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit is captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid. 2023 - Wagner Group revolt begins in Russia.
