As a Russian government plane lands in the U.S., signaling possible secret diplomatic talks, Russia has pounded Ukraine’s cities again, as the Russian ground offensive remains effectively stalled. In the Middle East, Israel keeps hitting Hezbollah infrastructure & personnel from the air, as diplomats optimistically talk of expanding the Abraham Accords. Oh… & it looks like the U.S. and China have reached a trade deal! |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Russia escalates air campaign as war of attrition drags on
Overnight, Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults on Ukraine to date, deploying 371 aerial threats, including more than 200 Iranian Shahed-type drones, decoys, two Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ballistic missiles, and six Kalibr cruise missiles. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 359 out of 363 Shahed and decoy drones and all six Kalibr missiles. However, both Kinzhal missiles struck the Starokostyantyniv area in the Khmelnytskyi region, reportedly targeting a military airbase. Explosions continued to be heard around Starokostyantyniv at 07:30 this morning.
In a separate development, a Russian government aircraft—an Il-96—flew from St. Petersburg to New York, according to Flightradar24. The identities of those on board remain undisclosed, and neither the U.S. nor the Russian Federation has issued an official comment. Presumably some diplomacy is going on behind the scenes.
At the European Union summit in Brussels, leaders reaffirmed their commitment to providing Ukraine with additional air-defense systems, anti-drone technology, and large-caliber munitions. In a joint statement, they emphasized Ukraine's inherent right to self-defense and the need to protect civilians and territorial integrity amid Russia’s intensifying attacks.
The European Council also agreed to extend sanctions against Russia for another six months.
Council President António Costa confirmed that work continues on the bloc’s eighteenth sanctions package.
While the European Commission endorsed opening accession negotiations with Ukraine.
On the battlefield, Russian forces have made slow and costly advances along parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line. Ukraine, outnumbered and outgunned, has relies on drones to offset the Russian advantage in manpower.
Meanwhile, Finland and Poland have announced their withdrawal from the Ottawa Treaty, which bans the use of anti-personnel mines. They join Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, who since March this year have all announced they will again use anti-personnel mines to defend their borders from Russia. Norway remains the only NATO member bordering Russia that has not announced plans to mine its frontier.
The conflict on the ground in Ukraine appears to have reached a grinding stalemate, with front lines largely static since January, except in Russia’s Kursk province, where joint Russian and North Korean forces have expelled most Ukrainian troops.
The question of Russia’s long-term strategy remains unresolved. European officials are warning that Moscow may eventually seek to expand its campaign to other European states, beginning with the Baltic countries.
But the question of Russian staying power is becoming increasingly important.
Yesterday, Igor Girkin (also known as Strelkov), a former Russian intelligence officer and one of the architects of the 2014 seizure of Donbas, offered a bleak prognosis.
A fervent Russian nationalist, Girkin has become an outspoken critic of the Kremlin’s military strategy. Convicted in absentia by a Dutch court for his role in the 2014 downing of Malaysian Airlines flight 17 and imprisoned in Russia in 2024 on charges of extremism, he continues to publish commentary from prison.
Girkin’s latest dispatch predicts that the offensive on Sumy and Kharkiv will stall within two to three weeks, slowing to the snail’s pace seen in Donbas. He warned of intensified Ukrainian strikes deep into Russian territory and possible counteroffensives later this summer once Russian reserves are depleted.
Economic signs are also turning bleak. Russian newspapers report that housing and utility tariffs are set to rise by 11.9%, while analysts warn the country is on the verge of recession. Oil prices may fall below $60 a barrel, further undermining Russia’s fragile economy.
In a candid address, Elvira Nabiullina, the fearless and straight-talking head of Russia’s Central Bank, admitted that recent economic growth had been sustained by tapping idle resources: unused labor, surplus capacity, bank capital, and the National Wealth Fund. She warned that “many of these resources are now truly exhausted.”
As we have reported numerous times before, Chinese investment in Russia has largely evaporated. Fearing secondary U.S. sanctions, Chinese investors have pulled back, banks refuse to process Russian-linked transactions, and major online vendors such as Alibaba no longer accept Russian rubles. So much for the unbreakable alliance between China and Russia.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
The Middle East
Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization
Israel intensifies pressure in Lebanon as Abraham accords diplomacy resumes
Israeli forces have continued their policy of “mowing the grass” in southern Lebanon, launching a fresh round of airstrikes on the hills overlooking the southern city of Nabatiyeh and one targeted strike on an apartment inside the city this morning.
Hezbollah has not commented on the strikes, in keeping with its usual practice.
In recent days, Israel has escalated its strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure across southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts to expand the 2020 Abraham accords, which normalized Israel’s relations with several Arab states, have resumed. U.S. Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff has suggested that additional countries are preparing to join the initiative. Speaking to CNBC, Witkoff said that expanding the accords remains a central foreign policy goal for President Donald Trump. He added that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the State Department are actively engaged in bringing new signatories into the fold.
Witkoff hinted that announcements could be expected soon from countries that have traditionally eschewed formal ties with Israel. His remarks coincided with the appearance of a new billboard in Tel Aviv depicting Trump, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and a number of Arab leaders beneath the slogan “The Abraham Alliance: It’s time for a new Middle East.” The billboard features leaders from both existing signatories and potential future partners, including Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, Syria’s Ahmed al-Sharaa, and Lebanon’s Joseph Aoun.
U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy
America First
Over the past 24 hours, U.S.–China relations have seen significant movement with the signing of a new trade agreement announced by President Donald Trump.
The response from financial markets was mixed: U.S. stocks rose near record highs while markets in Hong Kong and Shanghai slipped slightly despite the trade breakthrough.
The deal, which stems from earlier negotiations in Geneva and London, establishes a 90-day tariff reduction—55% on U.S. tariffs and 10% on China’s—and includes provisions to accelerate the export of rare earth minerals from China to the United States.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that Chinese authorities are fast-tracking export approvals to meet industrial demand.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is supposedly close to finalizing ten additional trade deals with other countries by the 9 July deadline tied to the tariff truce.
On the economic front, China reported a 9.1% drop in industrial profits for May, underscoring persistent domestic pressures.
In Washington, lawmakers introduced a bipartisan bill to ban Chinese-made artificial intelligence systems from use in federal agencies, citing national security risks amid rising technological rivalry.
Pale Blue Dot
The planet will be fine, it’s the humans who should be worried
The world is facing an alarming convergence of climate-related crises, with new data underscoring the accelerating pace of environmental change.
In the Amazon, Brazilian scientist Carlos Nobre has warned that the rainforest is approaching an irreversible tipping point, with deforestation nearing 20% and regional temperatures climbing dangerously close to levels that could trigger a shift to savannah—potentially unleashing hundreds of billions of tons of carbon dioxide.
Nobre issued his warning yesterday, during an in-depth interview published by The Guardian. In that piece, he cautioned that the Amazon rainforest is “perilously close to the point of no return,” with approximately 18% deforestation and global warming of around 1.5 °C.
This is just shy of the estimated 20–25% deforestation or 2–2.5 °C warming threshold that could trigger a disastrous shift into savannah
Meanwhile, extreme heatwaves are sweeping across the U.S. and Europe, with heat domes pushing temperatures above 40°C and rendering even coastal and forested regions inhospitable.
In Switzerland, the Rhône Glacier is rapidly retreating, part of a broader pattern of Alpine melt that has already caused deadly collapses and threatens regional water and power supplies.
Against this backdrop, nearly 200 countries at the UN climate talks in Bonn agreed to boost the UNFCCC budget by 10%; a modest and mostly symbolic commitment to enhanced climate action.
However, scientists warn that time is running out, with the remaining global carbon budget sufficient for only three more years of emissions at current rates before breaching the 1.5°C threshold.
Meanwhile, NASA reports a sharp increase in the frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally.
Though El Niño conditions have dissipated and a return to La Niña later this year is possible, the broader climatic instability is mounting.
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What happened today:
1358 – Paris is stormed by Jacques rebels during the French Peasants' Revolt. 1844 – Joseph Smith, founder of the Latter-day Saint movement, is killed by a mob in Illinois. 1954 – CIA-backed coup overthrows Guatemalan President Jacobo Árbenz. 1976 – Palestinian hijackers land Air France Flight 139 in Entebbe, Uganda. 1991 – Yugoslav army invades Slovenia two days after it declares independence. 2007 – Tony Blair resigns as British Prime Minister; Gordon Brown takes office.
