What you need to know

Confusion over terms of nuclear deal offered to Iran

There is considerable confusion surrounding the contents of the draft nuclear agreement presented to Iran on Sunday by White House advisor Steve Witkoff.

Media outlets reported on Monday that the proposed deal would allow Iran to enrich uranium to 3% purity for a temporary, though unspecified, period.

In response, President Donald Trump stated that these reports were inaccurate, insisting that Iran would not be permitted to enrich uranium at any level.

Other reports suggested that, regardless of the precise terms, Iran had rejected the draft agreement.

On Monday, Iranian, Egyptian and United Nations officials convened in Cairo to discuss Iran’s nuclear program following a report by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog that Iran is expanding its stockpile of uranium enriched to levels approaching weapons-grade.

Grossi noted that the agency had compiled its latest report due to the growing concerns among its board of governors over Iran’s enrichment activities.

According to the IAEA, Iran had accumulated 408.6 kilograms (900.8 pounds) of uranium enriched to 60% as of 17 May. This is an increase of nearly 50% since the last report in February. Uranium enriched to 60% is only a short technical step away from weapons-grade material, which requires enrichment to 90%.

While the U.S. has repeatedly stated that it will not allow Iran to enrich uranium, Iran has also consistently stated that it will not give up that capability. This is the essential hurdle that the two sides need to overcome.

In January 2020, following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force, Trump tweeted: “Iran never won a war, but never lost a negotiation!” The meaning of the remark was unclear at the time, but the view that Iran excels at negotiation has since become something of an axiom in diplomatic circles.

That reputation, as well as Iran’s military capabilities, may soon be tested once more.

Europe’s center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Dutch government collapses

This morning, the Dutch government collapsed following the withdrawal of the far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) from the ruling coalition.

The collapse was triggered by a breakdown in negotiations over asylum and migration policy. The coalition, known as the Schoof cabinet, had formed in July 2024 and included the PVV, VVD, NSC, and BBB, under the leadership of independent Prime Minister Dick Schoof.

Tensions peaked when PVV leader Geert Wilders demanded the adoption of a stringent 10-point migration plan, including border closures and deportations. After failing to secure agreement from coalition partners, Wilders announced the PVV's exit, effectively ending the coalition. His move drew sharp criticism from other party leaders, who accused him of undermining national stability.

Prime Minister Schoof is expected to resign, transitioning the government into a caretaker role pending snap elections anticipated in the autumn. The collapse comes at a sensitive time, with the Netherlands preparing to host a major NATO summit.

America First

White House urges countries to finalize trade deals as tariff deadline nears

The White House has issued a fresh ultimatum to trade partners, urging them to submit their best proposals by Wednesday (tomorrow), five weeks before paused reciprocal tariffs are due to take effect.

Countries are being asked to submit final offers on tariffs and quotas concerning U.S. industrial and agricultural goods, along with proposals to resolve non-tariff barriers. The letter also calls for commitments on digital trade, economic security, and country-specific obligations.

Officials say the U.S. will review the responses within days and present what it describes as a “possible landing zone,” which may include a mutual tariff agreement.

The ultimatum is believed to be aimed at partners engaged in active talks, including the European Union, Japan, Vietnam and India. These discussions began on 9 April, when President Donald Trump paused the “Liberation Day” tariffs for 90 days in response to volatility in financial markets.

Japan, in particular, has been downbeat about the prospect of reaching agreement with the U.S. on tariff policy. To understand the miserable history of Japan’s trade relationship with America since the 1980s (which informs how Japan is viewing these negotiations), see “From the Plaza to Mar-a-Lago“.

While White House officials, including economic advisor Kevin Hassett, have consistently said multiple deals are nearing completion, only one has been finalized so far; with Britain. That agreement is a framework for future negotiations rather than a full-fledged accord.

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

Russia presents peace plan to Ukraine. Ukraine unimpressed

Following yesterday’s strike on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet by Ukrainian drones, peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine remain stalled, with a second round of direct talks in Istanbul yielding minimal progress.

The discussions, which lasted under an hour, resulted in limited agreements on humanitarian matters, including a prisoner exchange and the repatriation of approximately 12,000 fallen soldiers (6,000 from each side).

Ukraine proposed a 30-day unconditional ceasefire to deescalate hostilities, but Russia countered with a three-day ceasefire focused solely on recovering war dead.

Russia also presented a memorandum demanding sweeping concessions: Ukrainian recognition of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories, military withdrawal from eastern Ukraine, a Ukrainian pledge of neutrality, restrictions on Ukraine’s defense capabilities, lifting of sanctions, and new elections under conditions acceptable to Moscow.

Kyiv rejected the proposal outright, viewing it as tantamount to surrender.

Despite plans for future talks, the fundamental divide between the two sides' objectives leaves the outlook for a negotiated settlement bleak.

India and European Union conducting joint naval drills in the Gulf of Guinea

India and the European Union are currently carrying out joint naval exercises in the Gulf of Guinea off the coast of west Africa, aiming to bolster maritime security cooperation and support rules-based international order in the region.

This marks the second joint exercise of its kind. The first, held in October 2022, involved ships from India and the European Union’s member states in the Arabian Sea, underlining their growing security partnership beyond trade and investment ties.

Indian officials say the exercise forms part of a broader Indo-Pacific strategy, through which New Delhi seeks to project its maritime influence and deepen ties with like-minded partners amid concerns about growing Chinese naval assertiveness.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Al-Qaida affiliate attacks Malian bases as junta struggles to contain jihadist threat

A group linked to al-Qaida has attacked a Malian army base in Timbuktu. The assault came a day after the group claimed responsibility for another strike near the border with Burkina Faso.

The attack was attributed to Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), which said it was behind an earlier attack on an army base in Boulkessi, near Burkina Faso. While Malian authorities have not yet released casualty figures from Sunday’s attack we believe up to 30 soldiers were killed.

Since 2012, a constellation of jihadist groups (most prominently the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and JNIM) has battled Malian security forces.

Violence has persisted in the Liptako-Gourma region, where the borders of Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger meet. In February, Human Rights Watch reported that 34 civilians were killed when an armed group ambushed a convoy traveling from Gao to Ansongo in Mali’s northeast, despite being escorted by five military pickup trucks.

Similar attacks have occurred across the Sahel, a region that now accounts for more than half of all terrorism-related deaths globally.

Since the beginning of May, more than 400 soldiers have reportedly been killed in attacks on military posts and towns across Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

In January, the three countries announced their withdrawal from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which marked its 50th anniversary this May, and the formation of a new bloc, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), partly aimed at strengthening joint military operations.

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