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What you need to know

One big beautiful bill

President Donald Trump’s flagship tax-and-spending proposal, known as the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” cleared a procedural hurdle in the U.S. Senate over the weekend, passing a vote to begin formal debate by a margin of 51 to 49. T

he sweeping legislation would permanently extend the 2017 tax cuts, boost spending on defense and border security, and slash funding for social programs such as Medicaid and SNAP.

According to a 29 June analysis by the Congressional Budget Office, the Senate version would add approximately $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade—around $800 billion more than the House version.

To blunt the headline fiscal impact, Senate Republicans are employing a contentious accounting maneuver that treats the tax cuts as continuations of current policy, thereby lowering the official estimate to $508 billion.

Detractors, including several Republicans, argue this tactic misrepresents the true cost and erodes fiscal transparency.

With debate now under way, Senate leaders hope to pass the bill before the 4 July recess.

If enacted, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” would mark a profound shift in the federal government’s role in the economy.

The projected $3.3 trillion addition to the deficit stems primarily from the permanence of the 2017 tax cuts and expanded security outlays. These are only partially offset by deep reductions in Medicaid, SNAP, and other welfare programs. Although Republican lawmakers argue that classifying the tax cuts as baseline policy justifies the $508 billion estimate, critics say the move masks the full burden on public finances.

Economically, the bill may deliver short-term gains for wealthier households and corporations, but at the cost of widening inequality and curbing consumption among lower-income Americans.

Politically, the legislation codifies Trump’s fiscal agenda, aligning the Republican Party more firmly with tax cuts and security spending, while sidelining its earlier preoccupations with deficit reduction.

Socially, the expected decline in access to healthcare and nutrition assistance would likely provoke legal challenges and resistance from state governments.

Taken together, the bill represents the most ambitious rewrite of American fiscal priorities in decades, reshaping the interplay between taxation, federal spending, and the welfare state.

While framed as a domestic initiative, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” carries considerable international consequences.

The bill underlines a pivot toward transactional trade policy, with tariff relief deployed as leverage in bilateral negotiations with countries such as Canada, Mexico, Indonesia, and Thailand.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Yesterday, the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) (comprising Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso) officially launched the Confederal Bank for Investment and Development, a key economic institution aimed at bolstering mutual financial sovereignty and cooperation.

The creation of the Confederal Bank for Investment and Development by the AES marks a deliberate step toward economic sovereignty and reduced reliance on France. Simultaneously, these countries are increasing their security relations with Russia. Positioned as an alternative to West African regional financial institutions tied to the CFA franc and ECOWAS, the bank is intended to centralize investment in critical sectors such as infrastructure, energy, defense, and agriculture.

More strategically, it signals the AES bloc’s broader effort to dismantle what its leaders view as neocolonial financial structures, particularly the French-backed CFA franc, which they see as a constraint on fiscal independence.

The move is also a response to regional sanctions and international isolation, enabling AES states to build resilience against external economic pressure. Ultimately, the bank is both a practical and symbolic institution designed to reinforce the bloc’s new political identity: one centered on military-led governance, Pan-African nationalism, and strategic realignment away from Western influence.

The move away from France, has, however, had serious security implications. Not only have French troops been ejected, but U.S. military assets as well. In return, jihadist violence from a spectrum of groups has accelerated across the region, with violence increasing seemingly by the day.

Jihadist violence in the central Sahel in particular has surged in recent weeks, with Niger and Burkina Faso experiencing some of the deadliest attacks of 2025.

In Niger’s volatile Tillabéri region, Islamic State Sahel Province fighters killed 34 soldiers in an ambush near Bani-Bangou on June 19, followed by a brutal June 20–21 raid on Manda village during Friday prayers that left 71 civilians dead and 20 injured. On June 24, militants assaulted a military position in Tassia, resulting in 20 Nigerien soldiers and one civilian killed, while simultaneous reports of troop mutinies in Filingué and Téra revealed deep fractures within Niger’s armed forces.

In Burkina Faso, JNIM launched a devastating June 11 assault on a military outpost in Mansila, killing 107 soldiers, the deadliest single-day loss for Burkinabe forces this year. That same day, a parallel attack in Sindo left at least 20 civilians dead.

Most recently, today, suspected jihadists attacked the village of Niamana in the Hauts-Bassins region, killing two civilians.

These escalating attacks highlight the deteriorating security environment and the increasing operational tempo of insurgent groups across the Sahel, as jihadists take advantage of the removal of French and U.S. military assets from the region.

America First

Canada repeals digital tax after U.S. backlash

Canada has formally withdrawn its Digital Services Tax following a sharp escalation in trade tensions with the United States. The 3% levy, which came into force in June 2024 and was retroactively applied from January 2022, targeted revenue earned by large digital platforms from Canadian users, including several major U.S. technology firms. Although the tax was expected to generate more than C$7 billion, it drew swift and forceful opposition from Washington.

On 27 June 2025, President Donald Trump denounced the measure as a “blatant attack” on American companies, suspended bilateral trade talks and threatened retaliatory tariffs.

The reversal was welcomed by U.S. business lobbies and Canadian trade advocates, who had warned that the levy threatened to undermine cross-border commerce and broader economic cooperation.

Indonesia offers U.S. investment in critical minerals

On 30 June, Indonesia’s Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Airlangga Hartarto, announced that the country had invited the United States to co-invest in a critical minerals project as part of ongoing tariff negotiations. The initiative, involving Danantara Indonesia (Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund) is tied to the development of the electric vehicle ecosystem, with a particular focus on nickel and other essential inputs.

The offer is part of a broader push by Jakarta to head off new U.S. tariffs set to take effect by 9 July.

Indonesia plays a central role in the global supply of nickel, a metal essential for electric vehicle batteries.

The initiative also reflects wider efforts by Jakarta to deepen ties with Washington, including previous talks over a limited free trade agreement focused on critical minerals.

Although such proposals have encountered resistance in the U.S., the current investment framework offers a more pragmatic path toward closer economic cooperation.

Thais accelerate trade talks with U.S.

On 30 June, Thai Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira announced that he would travel to Washington, D.C., for two days of high-level trade talks aimed at securing favorable treatment for Thai exports. The discussions center on preventing a sharp tariff hike that could take effect after 9 July, when the current U.S. moratorium (capping tariffs on Thai goods at 10%) is set to expire.

Chunhavajira expressed hope that Thailand would not be treated less favorably than other trade partners. His visit follows earlier signals from the Commerce Ministry that a deal could be reached to preserve the existing rate.

Formal technical negotiations are expected to proceed in tandem with ministerial-level meetings in Washington this week, as Thailand seeks to shore up its economic position and avert disruption to its export flows.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

One of the heaviest air attacks of the war as front line continues to be stalled

Russia launched its largest aerial assault to date, firing approximately 537 aerial weapons, including 477 drones and 60 missiles, across multiple regions of Ukraine last night. Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 211 drones and 38 missiles. Civilian casualties were reported in Kherson and Kharkiv, with significant damage to infrastructure in Kyiv and Lviv.

Ukrainian special forces reportedly conducted a drone strike on Marinovka airfield in Volgograd Oblast, destroying two Russian bombers and damaging two Su-34 fighter-bombers.

In the Donbas, Russian forces continued offensive operations northeast and southeast of Chasiv Yar and near Serebryanka, Verkhnokamyanske and Ivano-Darivka, but without confirmed territorial gains. In the Kupyansk direction, clashes occurred near Kolisnykivka and other villages, again with no reported advances.

In Sumy Oblast, Russian units maintained activity around Pysarivka, Khotin and Yablunivka. Russian troops remain positioned along the border in Kursk Oblast, launching artillery and drone attacks, but no breakthroughs were reported. The summer incursion into northern Sumy continues, with Russia still occupying some territory in the region.

The question remains - how long can Russia continue the war with very little or no progress. It’s aerial strikes appear to have done little to undermine Ukrainian morale.

China warns Australia on Defense build up

China’s ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, has strongly criticized Western-led efforts to increase defense spending, particularly calls for countries like Australia to raise military budgets to 3.5% of GDP.

He dismissed the notion that China poses a significant threat, emphasizing that Beijing’s defense expenditure remains modest (supposedly around 1.5% of GDP) and claims it is primarily defensive in nature.

Xiao described the push for greater military outlays as part of a “Cold War mentality” that risks provoking arms races and undermining regional economic stability. He urged countries to reject what he called alarmist narratives about a China threat and instead prioritize cooperation and mutual economic benefit.

The ambassador also warned that steep increases in defense budgets could place unsustainable fiscal pressure on governments, detracting from broader national development goals.

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