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Amidst the news that two Chinese nationals have been indicted for allegedly trying to smuggle a bio-agent into the U.S., the White House has imposed additional tariffs on trade partners, South Korea has elected a new President, and Papua New Guinea signals that it wishes to stay firmly aligned with the U.S. and Australia. Gaza aid deliveries remain a disaster, with the U.S. still unable to take decisive diplomatic action to alleviate the growing humanitarian crisis.

Center of Gravity

What you need to know

Chinese researchers charged with smuggling pathogen into U.S.

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with smuggling a dangerous agricultural pathogen into the United States, in a case that prosecutors say raises urgent national security concerns. The pair, Yunqing Jian, 33, and Zunyong Liu, 34, allegedly attempted to bring samples of Fusarium graminearum, a fungus classified as a potential agroterrorism weapon, into the country for what they claim was research at a University of Michigan laboratory.

The Department of Justice announced on Tuesday that the couple faces charges including conspiracy, smuggling, making false statements and visa fraud.

  • Jian, a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Michigan’s Molecular Plant-Microbe Interaction Laboratory, was arrested and appeared in court in Detroit.

  • Liu, a researcher at Zhejiang University in China, is not currently in the U.S.

Fusarium graminearum causes Fusarium Head Blight (FHB), a devastating disease that affects staple crops such as wheat, barley, rice and maize.

  • The U.S. Department of Agriculture has warned that the pathogen not only reduces yield and quality but also contaminates grain with toxic compounds, rendering it unfit for human or animal consumption and causing liver damage.

  • Since the 1990s, FHB has caused an estimated $3 billion in damage to American agriculture.

United States Attorney Jerome F. Gorgon Jr. described Jian as “a loyal member of the Chinese Communist Party” and accused the pair of plotting to exploit American research infrastructure.

The investigation, led by the Federal Bureau of Investigation and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, revealed that Liu attempted to enter the country via Detroit Metropolitan Airport in July 2024 using a tourist visa. He allegedly smuggled fungal samples into the U.S. without permits and initially denied knowing what the materials were before admitting he intended to clone different strains of the fungus at Jian’s university lab.

Authorities discovered a trail of digital correspondence between the two, suggesting coordination on multiple trips involving biological materials. According to the affidavit, Jian’s research in the U.S. and China was supported by funding from the Chinese government.

President Donald Trump’s administration has pushed for stricter visa screening for Chinese nationals, particularly those in scientific fields with potential military or economic relevance.

  • Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently said the administration is working to revoke visas from individuals with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

FBI Director Kash Patel said the incident is a “reminder that the CCP is working around the clock to infiltrate American institutions and target our food supply, which would have grave consequences.”

  • Jian remains in custody pending a detention hearing scheduled for Thursday.

The case underscores growing tensions between the U.S. and China in areas of biosecurity, cyber-security, academic exchange and research—fields now increasingly viewed as critical battlegrounds in the rapidly evolving geopolitical rivalry between the two superpowers.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Chaos in Gaza escalates as U.S.-backed aid effort falters

The U.S.-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has suspended aid deliveries, citing urgent concerns over civilian safety following the deaths of dozens of Palestinians near one of its distribution sites. The pause comes amid rising international pressure on Israel to safeguard civilians seeking aid.

The foundation said it had urged the Israeli military to manage crowds more effectively, establish clearer guidance for civilians, and improve training aimed at reducing risks near humanitarian delivery points. A GHF spokesperson stated, “Our top priority remains ensuring the safety and dignity of civilians receiving aid.”

An Israeli military spokesperson described the approach routes to GHF sites as “combat zones” and warned civilians to keep away. The military said its troops had opened fire on individuals deemed a threat near one of the GHF’s food distribution areas.

  • According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, the incident left at least 27 people dead and dozens more wounded.

  • GHF stressed that the shooting occurred “well beyond” the perimeter of its facility.

The United Nations Security Council is preparing to vote on a resolution demanding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, as well as the facilitation of humanitarian access across Gaza.

Despite the lifting of an 11-week Israeli blockade, aid continues to arrive sporadically, amid violence and logistical dysfunction.

GHF began operations in Gaza only a week ago. It claims to have distributed over seven million meals from three designated sites.

The UN and several other aid organizations have declined to partner with the GHF, arguing that the initiative lacks neutrality and militarizes the delivery of humanitarian assistance. The GHF relies on private American security and logistics firms to transport and distribute aid. The UN and other aid organizations have previously had to rely on security assistance from Hamas to deliver aid.

The initiative marks the latest in a series of international attempts to address Gaza’s worsening humanitarian crisis. With roughly 2.1 million people at risk of famine, earlier efforts included Jordanian-led airdrops and the brief deployment of a floating U.S. aid pier, both hampered by operational difficulties.

The UN has consistently blamed Israeli restrictions and rampant lawlessness within Gaza for obstructing aid access and its subsequent distribution. Israel has accused Hamas of seizing humanitarian supplies.

The Israeli military also reported that three of its soldiers were killed during operations in northern Gaza. Meanwhile, Hamas-controlled health authorities in the territory claimed at least 18 Palestinians died in separate Israeli airstrikes.

On Wednesday, the ten elected members of the UN Security Council plan to bring to a vote a draft resolution demanding “an immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire in Gaza respected by all parties.” The resolution also calls for the release of all hostages held by Hamas and others, and for the lifting of all restrictions on aid entry and its safe, unhindered distribution, specifically via UN channels.

To pass, the resolution requires at least nine votes in favor and no veto from any of the Security Council’s five permanent members: the United States, Russia, China, Britain or France.

President Donald Trump’s administration, which continues its efforts to mediate a ceasefire, is still most likely to veto the resolution.

U.S. Foreign & Trade Policy

America First

Trump doubles metal tariffs, sparking international backlash

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, raising them from 25% to 50% for all trading partners.

  • The move, which took effect today, drew immediate criticism from officials in Canada, Mexico and the European Union.

The White House said the increased tariffs are intended to counter foreign producers accused of flooding the U.S. market with low-cost surplus metals. The order argues that higher levies will counter this practice and support domestic industry.

In the order, Trump stated that earlier tariffs had helped provide “critical price support” to the domestic steel and aluminum sectors.

Only imports from the United Kingdom will remain subject to the original 25% tariff until 9 July, pending the outcome of ongoing trade talks between the two countries.

  • The 25% levies are part of a broader framework for a trade agreement negotiated last month by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Trump.

Canada ships more steel to the U.S. than any other country, followed by Mexico.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office issued a statement on Tuesday condemning the decision as “unlawful and unjustified.”

Mexico’s economy minister, Marcelo Ebrard, said in a public appearance that he would push for an exemption, calling the policy “not fair” and “unsustainable.”

The European Commission warned that “expanded countermeasures” were under review, with additional EU actions set to take effect by 14 July.

Trump campaigned on using tariffs to bolster American industry, and his use of tariffs to achieve particular outcomes, political and economic, are at least partly informed by the work of Stephen Miran, the chair of his board of economic advisors, who wrote an influential paper on this late last year.

Cold War 2.0

It's now the US vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side

South Korea elects a new President

South Korea's newly elected president, Lee Jae-myung, has taken office under exceptional circumstances, vowing to revive diplomacy with North Korea and deepen strategic ties with the United States and Japan.

His immediate task, however, will be to navigate a looming trade crisis with Washington.

Lee, who rose from poverty to become the country’s most prominent liberal politician, assumed the presidency on Wednesday after a snap election triggered by the impeachment of his predecessor, Yoon Suk-yeol. The former president was removed following a failed attempt to impose martial law in late 2024.

In his inaugural address before the National Assembly, Lee laid out an agenda focused on security and pragmatism. He pledged to deter North Korea's nuclear threat through a firm defense posture rooted in the U.S.-South Korea alliance, while also proposing renewed talks and cooperation with Pyongyang to pursue peace on the peninsula.

Lee has reiterated his commitment to the alliance with the U.S. as the bedrock of South Korea’s foreign policy.

Due to the failed martial law, or coup, attempt, by his predecessor, Lee directly entered office without the two-month grace period typically afforded to new presidents.

Lee won the presidency with a considerable majority, an emphatic rejection by South Koreans of any return to military rule.

His most pressing issue comes from the U.S., which in April imposed sweeping 25% tariffs on all South Korean imports, expanding an earlier round of duties on steel and automobiles. The move shocked Seoul, which had assumed that its free-trade agreement would shield it from such measures.

Even before the tariffs, the economy was under strain. The political upheaval surrounding martial law had dampened business confidence, and South Korea’s economy contracted in the first quarter of the year.

The U.S. currently maintains a security guarantee over South Korea, including the deployment of 28,500 American troops and a nuclear umbrella designed to deter aggression from the North.

During his first term, Trump repeatedly questioned the utility of maintaining U.S. forces on the peninsula and threatened to withdraw them unless Seoul increased its financial contribution.

However, the changing geopolitical situation in North Asia may play into Seoul’s hands. Beyond deterring North Korea, the U.S. is increasingly focused on countering China’s growing military reach, particularly near Taiwan.

  • This increases the value of South Korea’s long-standing military and diplomatic relationship with America.

Remarks from Papua New Guinea's defense minister underscore regional anxieties

Papua New Guinea’s Minister for Defense, Billy Joseph, offered a frank assessment of the regional security outlook during remarks at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute conference in Canberra on Tuesday.

He noted that the recent circumnavigation of Australia by Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy vessels, which included live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea, was a visible reminder of the threats confronting the Indo-Pacific.

Joseph focused especially on the growing defense relationship with Australia. He confirmed that on 9 June, the draft of a proposed defense treaty will be presented in Wewak, in northern Papua New Guinea.

  • The treaty aims to formalize and deepen security ties between Port Moresby and Canberra.

"Papua New Guinea and Australia are closely linked," he said. "We believe a defense-to-defense agreement is necessary to signal clearly that our country aligns with those who uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific and a rules-based international order."

"In our case, the economy and security are fundamentally linked," Joseph explained. "Some countries are already leveraging economic tools to exert security influence. States must independently determine who their security partners are through sovereign decision-making."

Joseph went on to underline: "We have signed a defense cooperation agreement with the United States.” He added that, "Like others, we trade extensively with China. But when it comes to security, we stand with our traditional partners—Australia and the United States. Others may prefer Beijing, but we do not have the same level of security alignment with China."

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What happened today:


1878 - Cyprus Convention signed, giving Britain administrative control over Cyprus from the Ottoman Empire. 1940 - Dunkirk evacuation ends, with over 330,000 Allied troops rescued from Nazi-occupied France. 1967 - Egypt closes the Straits of Tiran to Israeli shipping, escalating toward the Six-Day War. 1970 - Tonga gains independence from British protection, joining the Commonwealth. 1982 - Israel launches Operation Peace for Galilee, invading southern Lebanon. 1989 - Chinese troops suppress Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing, killing at least hundreds and perhaps thousands of civilians. 2002 - NATO invites Russia to participate in the NATO-Russia Council for joint cooperation. 2009 - President Barack Obama delivers landmark Cairo speech calling for a new beginning in U.S.–Muslim relations.

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