What you need to know

Diplomatic paralysis in Iran nuclear negotiations

U.S. officials have indicated that no further talks between White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi are scheduled for the weekend. Israel, meanwhile, is reportedly delaying any action against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure until negotiations fully collapse. According to the schedule that seems to be used in the White House, President Donald Trump’s deadline for progress in the talks expires next week.

Citing unnamed diplomatic sources, Al-Mayadeen news (close to Iran’s regime) reported that Tehran has warned the U.S., the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the governments of the United Kingdom, Germany, and France that any resolution against Iran at next week’s IAEA Board of Governors meeting could prompt severe repercussions. These may include curtailing cooperation with IAEA inspectors and resuming more provocative steps in its nuclear program.

Israeli media claim that Iran has ordered thousands of tons of materials used in ballistic missile production from China. At the same time, polling in Israel suggests strong public support for preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Iran’s President has reportedly spoken with the Emir of Kuwait, the presidents of Egypt, Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Iraq, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, as well as the prime ministers of Iraq and Malaysia. Last week the Iranian foreign minister visited Egypt and Lebanon.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israel escalates strikes on Hezbollah drone facilities in Lebanon

Last night, the Israeli military launched a series of strikes against what it described as Hezbollah drone-manufacturing sites in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut. Thick plumes of smoke rose above the Lebanese capital, marking the most significant escalation since a U.S.-brokered ceasefire agreement took effect in late November.

Under the terms of the 27 November ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, both parties retain the right to self-defense. Israel invokes this clause to justify its operations against Hezbollah targets. Hezbollah is not a signatory to the agreement. The same Beirut neighborhood, considered a Hezbollah stronghold, was also targeted by Israel in March.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that the strikes targeted “terror targets of the Hezbollah Aerial Unit 127” in the Dahieh suburb of Beirut. Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency reported that Israeli drones carried out at least seven preliminary warning strikes before launching a separate attack on the town of Ain Qana in south Lebanon.

The IDF previously warned that it intended to target alleged underground drone production facilities in the area. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesperson, issued a series of urgent warnings on social media earlier in the day, urging residents of Al-Hadath, Haret Hreik, and Burj Al-Barajneh to evacuate buildings marked on Israeli-issued maps. A second warning, accompanied by satellite imagery, advised residents to remain at least 500 meters away from designated zones.

As of early Friday morning, Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health had not reported any casualties.

Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated that Israeli operations in Lebanon would continue until the Iranian-backed group disarms. “There will be no calm in Beirut, and no order or stability in Lebanon, without security for the State of Israel,” he said.

America First

Trump and Xi agree to restart U.S.-China trade talks

President Donald Trump announced on Thursday that he had held a lengthy phone call with President Xi Jinping of China. The conversation focused almost exclusively on trade and culminated in a decision to restart high-level negotiations between the two countries. Both sides framed the call as productive, with Trump declaring that prior complexities surrounding rare earth exports had been “straightened out.”

Speaking to reporters later in the day, Trump described the discussion as “very good” and said that both sides had agreed to convene talks soon, though the precise location remains to be determined. The U.S. will be represented by Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

Trump said Xi extended an invitation for a state visit to China, which he accepted. “As presidents of two great nations, this is something that we both look forward to doing,” he said.

According to China’s state news agency Xinhua, Xi emphasized that Beijing had strictly adhered to the Geneva trade agreement reached last month and called on Washington to withdraw what he described as “negative measures” taken against China. Xi reiterated that China "keeps its promises" and urged the U.S. to do the same.

Under the terms of the Geneva agreement, both sides committed to lowering retaliatory tariffs—some of which had reached as high as 145 percent—and to restore the flow of critical rare earth elements and associated components to the U.S. However, in recent days, Washington has accused Beijing of failing to honor its commitments, including licensing requirements that have disrupted American supply chains.

China, for its part, accuses the U.S. of breaching the agreement by issuing new restrictions on Huawei chip usage, halting sales of chip-design software to Chinese firms, and revoking student visas. According to Chinese officials, Trump reaffirmed U.S. support for Chinese students studying in the United States and said his administration remains committed to full implementation of the Geneva consensus.

Although Trump had recently described Xi as “extremely hard to make a deal with,” the call appeared aimed at lowering tensions. Trump later posted on social media that the Taiwan issue, the conflict in Ukraine, and Iran’s nuclear program were not discussed in the conversation—an apparent signal that both sides are seeking to decouple trade from broader geopolitical disputes.

The truce struck in Geneva brought temporary relief to financial markets, which had been rattled by the prolonged U.S.-China trade war. However, investors remain wary, with any breakdown in talks likely to provoke renewed tariff escalation. Meanwhile, China's economic planners are grappling with deflationary pressure, sluggish domestic demand, and high youth unemployment.

The planet will be fine, it’s the people who should be worried

Carbon dioxide levels in Earth’s atmosphere reach record high

Earth’s atmosphere now contains more carbon dioxide than at any point in tens of millions, of years, according to data released on Thursday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and scientists at the University of California, San Diego.

For the first time, the global average concentration of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas emitted primarily through the combustion of fossil fuels, exceeded 430 parts per million (ppm) in May. The new readings mark a record high, representing an increase of more than 3 ppm over the previous year.

Carbon dioxide traps solar heat and can linger in the atmosphere for centuries. Elevated concentrations contribute to rising global temperatures, accelerating sea-level rise, melting polar ice caps, and intensifying extreme weather events.

Since preindustrial times, atmospheric carbon dioxide levels have increased, fueled predominantly by human activity. The 400 ppm threshold was passed in 2013. Now, scientists warn that concentrations could reach 500 ppm within the next three decades.

The last time carbon dioxide levels were this high was likely more than 30 million years ago. Modern humans emerged about 300,000 years ago.

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