Trump administration officials are expressing optimism over trade talks with China today in London. Meanwhile, against the wishes of California’s governor, the administration has federalized and deployed National Guard forces to Los Angeles to deal with a rapidly unravelling situation on the streets as protestors attack federal officers conducting immigration raids.

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Center of Gravity

What you need to know

U.S. and China resume trade talks amid renewed tensions

President Donald Trump announced on Friday that officials from the United States and China will meet in London on Monday to discuss bilateral trade, marking a potential breakthrough in a long-running dispute.

The meeting follows a deal struck in Geneva in May, under which both countries agreed to a 90-day pause in tariff escalations. Despite the truce, tensions persist—particularly over semiconductor policy, rare-earth exports, and U.S. visa restrictions on Chinese students.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote, “Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and United States Trade Representative Ambassador Jamieson Greer will be meeting in London on Monday, 9 June 2025, with representatives of China to discuss the Trade Deal.”

The announcement followed a 90-minute phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, which Trump later described as “encouraging.”

Beijing confirmed that Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng would lead its delegation, according to a statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs released on Saturday.

Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said on Sunday during an appearance on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” that he was “very comfortable” with the likelihood of a deal following Monday’s talks. His comments coincided with a market rally across Asia: Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.9%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.8%, and MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index was up 0.7%. The U.S. dollar also slipped against a basket of major Asian currencies.

Both sides appear to be shifting focus from tariffs to export restrictions. The United States is pressing China to resume shipments of rare earth minerals essential to electronics manufacturing. China, meanwhile, is seeking relief from U.S. export controls on high-tech goods, including jet engines and semiconductors.

Hassett stated that Washington aims to restore rare earth flows to levels seen prior to April, when the trade war sharply escalated. “Those exports have resumed at a pace higher than before,” he said, “but not yet at the level we believe was agreed to in Geneva.”

That optimism was short-lived. Weeks later, Trump accused China on Truth Social of “totally violating” the 90-day agreement. He cited the reinstatement of some export controls and a slowdown in implementation of tariff reductions.

Under the May deal, the United States temporarily lowered overall tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, while China cut duties on American goods from 125% to 10%. Beijing also agreed to suspend various non-tariff barriers introduced since 2 April. Among the most contentious were restrictions on exports of rare earths—materials crucial to the manufacture of products such as smartphones, electric vehicles, and fighter jets.

Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. How far the U.S. will take ‘maximum pressure’ on Iran - will it lead to military action. Relations of new Syrian government with international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.

Trump Administration

Move fast and break things

Clashes intensify in Los Angeles as protests escalate

Standoffs between protesters and law-enforcement officers in downtown Los Angeles escalated on Sunday night, concluding a tense day during which demonstrators, police, and helicopters overwhelmed the neighborhood housing City Hall and several federal buildings.

The unrest, now in its third day, began in response to federal immigration operations in a city with a large immigrant population. Mounted police patrolled the streets while law enforcement deployed tear gas to disperse crowds. Protesters ignited at least five Waymo autonomous taxis and hurled rocks and water bottles at officers.

The Los Angeles Police Department reported on Sunday evening that more than ten individuals had been arrested, while the California Highway Patrol detained 17 others. Some demonstrators carried hammers and used them to break curbs and bollards around federal buildings to gather stones to throw at police.

Earlier in the day, highway patrol officers used stun grenades to remove crowds from Highway 101 after hundreds had spilled onto one of Los Angeles’s main thoroughfares. Later that evening, tree branches, scooters, fireworks, and debris were launched from a freeway overpass onto police vehicles below.

The protests began on Friday and continued throughout the weekend after reports of immigration enforcement actions by federal agents.

President Donald Trump ordered the deployment of the National Guard late on Saturday, citing two days of violent confrontations between protesters and law enforcement. This decision came despite the absence of a formal request from the state, and in opposition to the wishes of the state governor, Gavin Newsom.

Trump justified the move by saying it was necessary to protect federal personnel and property. By Sunday, around 300 National Guard troops had taken up positions near federal buildings in Los Angeles.

A spokesperson for U.S. Northern Command confirmed that the troops were activated under Title 10 authority, which allows the president to deploy the National Guard to enforce federal law without a request from the state. Under Title 10, the National Guard reports directly to the president rather than the governor.

Such deployments have been rare; historical precedents include federal interventions during the civil rights era in 1957, 1962, and 1963, under Presidents Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy.

The Middle East

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Israel intercepts aid ship carrying Greta Thunberg near Gaza

Israeli forces have intercepted a civilian vessel attempting to deliver humanitarian aid to Gaza, detaining the activists onboard and escorting them to Israeli territory. The ship, named the Madleen, was organized by the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, a group opposed to Israel’s blockade of the Palestinian enclave.

Among those detained were climate activist Greta Thunberg and Rima Hassan, a member of the European Parliament from France. The coalition stated that the vessel was boarded in international waters. More than 600 days of war and an 11-week Israeli blockade have left Gaza’s 2.1 million inhabitants facing widespread hunger.

Israel’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on Monday that the vessel was being brought safely to shore and that the passengers would be returned to their countries of origin. In a video posted by the ministry on X, Madleen’s crew appeared seated in orange life jackets while a soldier handed out water and sandwiches. Thunberg was visible near the front of the group.

The Freedom Flotilla Coalition claimed the ship came “under assault in international waters.” In a livestream from the vessel, activist Yasmin Acar displayed a white substance on the deck, which she said had been dropped onto the boat and was causing her eye irritation. Another video posted by the group showed crew members seated with their hands raised.

Israel’s Minister of Defense, Israel Katz, confirmed on Sunday that he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces to prevent the Madleen from reaching Gaza. Following the ship’s seizure, Katz posted on X that he had directed the military to screen videos of the 7 October 2023 Hamas attacks for the detained activists upon their arrival at Ashdod port.

Hamas un-ironically condemned the interception as “a flagrant violation of international law” and demanded the activists' immediate release. Meanwhile, in recent days, Hamas has circulated graphic videos on Telegram showing the violent punishment by breaking limbs with heavy stones and iron bars, of individuals accused of looting or criticizing the group, including the filmed breaking of the limbs of a Gazan journalist.

The Madleen had publicized its location via an online tracker, preparing in advance for Israeli interdiction.

Israel imposed a total blockade on Gaza on 2 March, cutting off the flow of food, medicine, and other essentials. A limited amount of aid began to trickle in during late May, but humanitarian agencies say it falls far short of pre-war levels.

Over the past week, dozens of Palestinians have reportedly been killed while attempting to access aid distributed by a new U.S.-backed initiative, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. The program is intended to replace the United Nations’ aid distribution system in Gaza. The U.N. has warned that the new scheme has become a “death trap” for people seeking food.

Last month, another Freedom Flotilla Coalition ship, the Conscience, was reportedly attacked by a drone while off the coast of Malta. Organizers blamed Israel, though the Israeli military has not commented and no evidence has been provided to support the claim. The Conscience had been en route to Malta, where Thunberg and other activists were due to board before continuing to Gaza. The Madleen, which ultimately set sail from Sicily, was its successor mission.

Pale Blue Dot

The planet will be fine, it’s the people who should be worried

New study links all recent extreme heat to climate change

A recent report titled Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat, released on 30 May 2025 by a consortium of climate scientists, found that every one of the 67 extreme heat events recorded globally between 1 May 2024 and 1 May 2025 was made more likely by climate change.

  • The study applied the Climate Shift Index to compare observed conditions with a hypothetical climate unaffected by human activity.

  • It concluded that nearly four billion people, about half of the world's population, experienced at least 30 additional days of extreme heat due to anthropogenic warming.

The findings are concerning: the United States endured 46 days of extreme heat over the past year, with 24 of those attributed directly to global warming. In places like Micronesia, the increase was even more pronounced, with 57 extra days above normal thresholds. Regions across the Mediterranean, Middle East, Central Asia, and parts of South America have faced record-breaking temperatures, straining public health systems and infrastructure.

The rising heat is compounding other climate stresses. Canada is battling more than 1,700 wildfires that have already consumed over 2.6 million hectares, displacing thousands and blanketing cities in smoke. Meanwhile, an enormous marine heatwave in the Southwest Pacific, covering an area five times the size of Australia, is threatening coral reefs and accelerating oceanic ecosystem collapse.

African Tinderbox

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Russia recalibrates its presence in Mali as Wagner exits

Russia’s mercenary Wagner Group has announced its withdrawal from Mali after more than three and a half years on the ground. The paramilitary force said on Friday that it had completed its mission to suppress armed groups in the West African state.

In a statement shared via its Telegram channel, the group claimed to have returned all regional centers to the control of Mali’s military-led government, dislodging rebel forces and eliminating their commanders.

However, Wagner’s departure does not signal the end of Russian involvement in the country.

  • Mercenaries will remain under the auspices of the Africa Corps, a newer paramilitary formation backed by the Kremlin.

  • The unit was created following the failed mutiny led by Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against the Russian military in June 2023.

“Russia does not lose ground, but on the contrary, continues to support Bamako now at a more fundamental level,” said a statement by Africa Corps, referring to Mali’s capital.

The reshuffle in Russia’s presence comes after a series of deadly attacks on Malian forces and their allies.

  • Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al-Qaeda-linked group operating across the Sahel, claimed responsibility for a string of recent assaults that reportedly killed more than 100 Malian troops and several Russian fighters.

  • One such attack last Sunday left at least 30 soldiers dead at the Boulkessi military base in central Mali. Local officials later confirmed that the base had been abandoned.

Malian troops and their Russian partners have meanwhile faced mounting allegations of civilian abuse. In one widely reported incident in February, a convoy operation killed more than 20 Tuareg civilians, including children and elderly people.

The ejection of French and U.S. forces over the past year or so from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as a result of a series of coups between 2020 and 2023, has coincided with an influx of Russian mercenaries and a strengthening of the jihadists insurgencies in those countries.

See our explainer on the Sahel states, coups, jihadists, and Russians.

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What happened today:

68 AD – Roman Emperor Nero commits suicide, ending the Julio-Claudian dynasty. 1815 – Congress of Vienna concludes, redrawing the map of Europe after the Napoleonic Wars. 1959 – First nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, USS George Washington, is launched by the U.S. Navy. 1983 – British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher wins a landslide second term. 1999 – NATO and Serbia sign a military-technical agreement, ending the Kosovo War. 2014 – Iraqi city of Mosul falls to ISIS fighters, triggering a new phase in the Iraq War.

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