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What you need to know

Quad ministers meet in Washington to reinforce Indo-Pacific alignment

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting this week with his counterparts from Australia, India, and Japan to bolster coordination within the Quad grouping. The sessions, held in Washington, D.C., come at a time of strategic reassessment across the Indo-Pacific, where China’s expanding maritime footprint, economic coercion, and regional influence campaigns are prompting deeper alignment among the four nations.

Following a joint meeting of Quad foreign ministers today, Rubio is scheduled to hold bilateral discussions with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong. Their agenda spans maritime security, supply chain diversification, cybersecurity, and responses to growing authoritarian influence, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Pacific Islands.

The talks also offer a forum to manage internal frictions.

Washington continues to urge Tokyo to raise defense spending beyond current commitments, as part of a broader effort to distribute security responsibilities more evenly.

Canberra’s AUKUS nuclear submarine initiative remains a delicate subject, particularly for non-AUKUS members. Australia has already made a $500 million downpayment towards the project.

New Delhi, for its part, also remains cautious about U.S. policy toward Pakistan, with a long and bitter history of tension over intelligence cooperation and military aid.

Despite these points of friction, the Quad remains focused on advancing a unified agenda. Joint announcements are expected on infrastructure investment, green technology, and digital standards. The meetings underscore the group’s growing institutional weight within the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, aimed at preserving regional stability amid intensifying geopolitical competition with China.

America First

Trump threatens higher tariffs on Japan over rice trade dispute

President Donald Trump has threatened to impose higher tariffs on Japanese exports to the U.S., accusing Japan of refusing to purchase American-grown rice despite facing a domestic shortage. In a post on Truth Social, he linked the issue to his broader effort to enforce “reciprocal” tariffs on key trading partners.

Officials in Tokyo have not indicated any plan to reduce rice imports from the U.S.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi confirmed on Tuesday that bilateral trade talks remain ongoing, though he declined to comment directly on Trump’s remarks. A 2021 report from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative under President Joe Biden criticized Japan’s rice import system as overly regulated and lacking transparency, a point Trump appeared to echo.

Trump has recently signaled that Japan may receive a formal notice regarding potential tariff changes once a 90-day suspension on new levies expires on 9 July.

U.S. resumes livestock imports from Mexico after screwworm outbreak

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced a phased reopening of live animal imports from Mexico, including cattle, bison, and horses. The process will begin on 7 July, with the port of entry at Douglas, Arizona designated as the first to resume operations. Additional crossings along the U.S.–Mexico border are scheduled to reopen gradually through mid-September.

This policy shift follows a screwworm outbreak earlier this year, which prompted a temporary halt in livestock shipments from Mexico. The screwworm, a parasitic larva, poses a serious threat to herd health and, if left unchecked, can lead to widespread losses. In response, authorities in both countries implemented intensified containment and surveillance measures.

To support the reopening, the U.S. government is allocating $21 million to expand Mexico’s production of sterile screwworm flies, a long-established biological control method. The technique involves releasing sterilized male flies that, when mated with wild females, reduce overall reproduction rates and help curb infestations.

Mexico exports roughly 1.5 million cattle to the U.S. each year. The gradual reopening is expected to restore a critical livestock corridor and ease pressure on American beef supply chains.

China signals openness on trade as tariff strain grows

China has indicated a rare willingness to engage the United States on contentious trade issues, including tariffs, industrial subsidies, and its designation as a “developing country,” ahead of the World Trade Organization’s ministerial summit in Cameroon in 2026. A senior Chinese representative to the WTO suggested that Beijing may consider relinquishing its Special and Differential Treatment privileges in select negotiations, provided reciprocal steps are taken. Nonetheless, Chinese officials made clear that the country’s foundational economic model remains off the table.

At the same time, the economic toll of ongoing U.S. tariffs is becoming more apparent. A recent analysis found that prices for Chinese-made goods sold on Amazon in the U.S. rose by an average of 2.6% between January and mid-June, outpacing the broader core goods inflation rate. The data suggest that Chinese exporters are increasingly passing the burden of tariffs on to American consumers.

The impact is being felt across the region. Factory activity surveys for June show sluggish or stagnant performance in several Asian economies, with uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy cited as a key factor limiting broader industrial recovery.

These developments reflect an increasingly complex and cautiously managed trade relationship between Washington and Beijing, with the fallout affecting the entire Asian region, with both sides maneuvering ahead of upcoming multilateral negotiations.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Russia escalates aerial offensive with record aerial barrage

Russia launched its largest aerial assault on Ukraine to date on Tuesday, deploying approximately 477 Iranian-designed Shahed drones alongside 60 cruise and ballistic missiles.

In the Luhansk region, Russian-backed officials claimed full territorial control, a first since the onset of the full-scale invasion, though Ukrainian sources report continued clashes. In the Dnipropetrovsk region, Russian state media announced the capture of Dachnoye, a small village that, if verified, would represent the first confirmed Russian ground incursion into the oblast since 2022. Kyiv denies any such advance.

Meanwhile, along the northeastern border, Russia has reportedly concentrated approximately 50,000 troops near Sumy, raising concerns about a potential new offensive or diversionary action. Ukrainian forces are reportedly reinforcing defensive positions in the area.

Ukrainian forces launched Storm Shadow cruise missiles at targets in Donetsk, reportedly hitting the headquarters of Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army. While casualty figures remain unconfirmed, the strike is part of Kyiv’s ongoing effort to dismantle Russian command and logistical structures deep behind the front line.

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes have accelerated this year deep into Russian territory, targeting military infrastructure, drone production facilities, and logistics hubs. These attacks form part of a broader campaign to degrade Russia’s rear-area capabilities. Recent strikes have also damaged fuel depots and railway infrastructure critical to sustaining Russia’s war effort.

Meanwhile: The Trump administration discreetly extended key sanctions against major Russian banks and energy firms originally imposed during President Joe Biden’s tenure. On 27 June, the U.S. Treasury issued General License No. 115B, renewing sanctions on thirteen of Russia’s largest banks, which play a critical role in financing the war in Ukraine.

Birth pangs in the birthplace of civilization

Air defense systems activated over Tehran amid suspected strike

Tehran’s air defense systems were activated late Monday night, prompting a flurry of concern and speculation across the Iranian capital.

According to opposition-linked media and local residents, the incident occurred in the Shahid Beheshti district, an area near several military and governmental installations. Multiple loud explosions were heard, followed by the sound of low-flying aircraft or drones, though Iranian state media did not immediately acknowledge the event.

Witnesses reported seeing plumes of smoke rising from the vicinity, and footage shared by citizen journalists appeared to show anti-aircraft tracers illuminating the night sky. Emergency vehicles, including ambulances and fire crews, were observed racing toward the affected zone, with unconfirmed reports of injuries and possible fatalities. Hospitals in nearby districts were reportedly placed on alert.

Iranian authorities have not issued a formal statement.

The apparent engagement of Tehran’s air defenses underscores heightened anxiety within Iran’s security establishment amid developing shadow conflict with Israel. The capital remains on edge, with heightened military activity and intermittent internet disruptions reported throughout the past week.

Thailand’s PM suspended amid ethics inquiry over leaked Cambodia call

Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra has been suspended by the Constitutional Court pending an ethics investigation following the release of a phone call with Cambodia’s former leader Hun Sen.

In the call, Paetongtarn appeared to criticize her own military and offered conciliatory overtures to Hun Sen during a tense border standoff. Referring to the longtime Cambodian strongman as “uncle,” she implied a willingness to accommodate his requests, remarks that provoked public outrage and led to street protests in Bangkok.

The fallout has significantly undermined her political standing. The Bhumjaithai party, a key coalition partner, has withdrawn its support, further eroding her parliamentary base ahead of a looming no-confidence vote.

Although she has been removed from her prime ministerial role, Paetongtarn retains her position as culture minister following a cabinet reshuffle. She has portrayed her remarks as a diplomatic effort to reduce tensions and safeguard Thai soldiers, while expressing regret for any public discomfort the episode may have caused.

Her suspension is the latest twist in Thailand’s always fraught political environment, which has been shaped by a cycle of court rulings, party dissolutions, and unstable coalitions.

The same Constitutional Court previously ousted her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin, and disbanded the Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the 2023 election, banning its leadership from politics for a decade.

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