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What you need to know

Iran halts cooperation with nuclear watchdog amid rising tensions

Iran has formally suspended its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), following a sequence of legislative and executive measures taken over the past week. On 25 June, Iran’s Parliament voted unanimously to cease all collaboration with the U.N. nuclear watchdog, halting inspections, surveillance, and reporting. Lawmakers cited national security concerns and accused the agency of bias. The following day, the Guardian Council approved the bill, affirming its consistency with Iran’s constitution and Islamic principles. President Masoud Pezeshkian granted final approval this week, formally enacting the suspension.

Officials in Tehran, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, criticized what they described as the IAEA’s unwillingness to condemn recent Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites, particularly in Natanz and Isfahan.

The decision has drawn sharp criticism from Western governments and from IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, who maintains that the agency must continue to verify Iran’s nuclear activities under the Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement. The suspension complicates international monitoring efforts.

Yesterday, three loud explosions were reported in Shahr-e Rey, a southeastern district of Tehran. Eyewitnesses and social media footage showed smoke rising from an area believed to be near a military or industrial site. The blasts occurred in quick succession, prompting speculation of a targeted strike or coordinated sabotage. Emergency services were seen in the vicinity, although Iranian authorities have yet to issue an official statement regarding the cause or extent of the incident. Whether the explosions resulted from drones, missiles, or some kind of accident remains unconfirmed.

Since the launch of Israeli operations against Iran on 13 June, investors have withdrawn roughly 9 trillion tomans (equivalent to about $100 million) from Iran’s stock market.

America First

U.S. ends USAID operations amid foreign aid overhaul

On 1 July 2025, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has ceased all operations. The move marks a sweeping shift in American foreign assistance policy, with the agency’s functions transferred to the State Department under the administration’s “America First” framework.

Rubio framed the decision as a necessary correction to what he described as decades of inefficiency and a failure to align aid spending with national interests. Under the revised model, foreign assistance will be significantly reduced and closely tied to U.S. strategic objectives, moving away from grant-based humanitarian support toward interest-driven economic and diplomatic engagement.

The foreign aid budget will fall from approximately $23 billion to $17 billion, with roughly 83 percent of existing programs already terminated.

The United States is not the only Western country to recently unify aid with foreign affairs, both strategically and administratively. In recent years, both Australia and the United Kingdom have merged their independent foreign aid agencies into their respective foreign ministries, marking a shift in how development assistance is framed and delivered.

In the United Kingdom, then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in June 2020 the merger of the Department for International Development (DFID) with the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, forming the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

In Australia, a similar move occurred in 2013, when newly elected Prime Minister Tony Abbott dissolved the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), integrating it into the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT).

In both countries, these structural reforms were accompanied by budget cuts and a reorientation of aid policy away from humanitarian goals and toward strategic and economic imperatives, reflecting a broader trend in the alignment of Western foreign assistance with national objectives.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Quad expands maritime and minerals cooperation in the Indo-Pacific

The United States, Australia, India and Japan have agreed to deepen their collaboration on maritime security in the Indo-Pacific and to enhance joint efforts in securing supplies of critical minerals and rare earths—key inputs for advanced industrial production.

The foreign ministers of the four countries, known collectively as the “Quad,” met in Washington on Tuesday as the administration of President Donald Trump seeks to solidify U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific in the face of an increasingly assertive China. The meeting comes amid ongoing tensions with regional partners over trade policy and defense commitments.

In a joint appearance with his counterparts, Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that the Quad must function as a “vehicle for action” rather than a forum for rhetorical declarations. He underscored the importance of trade and economic engagement to maintain the group’s strategic relevance.

In a joint communiqué, the four governments announced the launch of a “Quad Critical Minerals Initiative,” aimed at strengthening economic security and supply-chain resilience by cooperating to secure and diversify access to critical minerals. The statement offered no further detail on the mechanism or scope of the initiative.

The attendees also denounced North Korea’s continued ballistic missile launches, expansion of its nuclear weapons program, support to Russia, and involvement in cyberattacks.

U.S. pauses arms shipment to Ukraine amid stockpile review

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered a pause in the delivery of missiles and ammunition to Ukraine, citing concerns over the depletion of U.S. military stockpiles, according to two defense officials, two congressional officials, and two individuals familiar with the matter.

The decision follows a memo issued by Hegseth several weeks ago, directing a comprehensive review of the U.S. inventory of munitions. The stockpiles have been significantly reduced after more than two years of sustained military support to Ukraine in its defense against Russia’s invasion, as well as extended U.S. operations in the Middle East, where American forces have engaged Houthi militants in Yemen and assisted Israel and other allies in countering threats from Iran.

The suspended shipment includes a broad range of weaponry: dozens of Patriot interceptors used to defend against Russian missile attacks, thousands of 155mm high-explosive howitzer shells, more than 100 Hellfire missiles, over 250 precision-guided rocket systems known as GMLRS, as well as dozens of Stinger surface-to-air missiles, AIM air-to-air missiles, and grenade launchers.

Speaking at a press conference in The Hague following a NATO meeting last week, President Donald Trump acknowledged the challenge of locating available Patriot systems for transfer to Ukraine, but promised to find solutions.

Russia has intensified its aerial assault in recent months. Over the weekend, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense reported the largest aerial bombardment since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, with 60 missiles and 477 drones launched against Ukrainian targets. Drone strikes, alone, are now occurring at 16 times the rate observed a year ago.

Chinese nationals charged with spying on U.S. Navy for Beijing

Prosecutors in the United States have charged two Chinese nationals with operating as agents of China’s intelligence services, accusing them of collecting information on U.S. naval installations and seeking to identify service members willing to spy for Beijing. The Department of Justice announced the charges on Tuesday.

According to the department, the suspects facilitated a “dead-drop” payment of at least $10,000 in a locker at a recreational facility in northern California in 2022. The money was allegedly exchanged for national security information that had already been transmitted to Chinese intelligence.

The individuals, 38-year-old Yuance Chen, a legal permanent resident living in Happy Valley, Oregon, and 39-year-old Liren “Ryan” Lai, who arrived in Houston from China in April on a tourist visa, were arrested on Friday.

The Department of Justice stated that the two men were acting on behalf of China’s Ministry of State Security and continued their activities after the 2022 incident, including efforts to identify potential assets within the ranks of the U.S. Navy.

In a statement, Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Kash Patel said, “The Chinese Communist Party thought they could operate on U.S. soil using traditional spycraft such as dead drops to pay their sources.”

Russia and Azerbaijan trade diplomatic blows after deaths in custody

Tensions between Russia and Azerbaijan have escalated sharply following the deaths of two ethnic Azerbaijani brothers in police custody in Yekaterinburg. Azerbaijani authorities allege the men were beaten to death while detained, prompting Baku to launch a criminal investigation and demand accountability.

In retaliation, Azerbaijan suspended a series of bilateral engagements, including high-level diplomatic and cultural visits.

It also moved against Russian state media, revoking the accreditation of the media outlet Sputnik Azerbaijan and raiding its Baku office.

The Kremlin condemned Azerbaijan’s actions as unjustified and damaging to bilateral relations, summoning Baku’s ambassador and demanding the immediate release of the detained journalists.

The episode marks a notable deterioration in ties between the two countries and underscores mounting geopolitical friction in the South Caucasus region as Russian power recedes and Azerbaijan becomes more assertive.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

Extremist attacks in western Mali near Senegal border

Armed militants attacked communities in western Mali near the border with Senegal, according to a statement issued Tuesday by Mali’s military.

The assaults were claimed by Jama'a Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an extremist group affiliated with al-Qaeda. The group said it had carried out coordinated strikes on several Malian army positions in the country’s western and central regions.

Colonel Majo Souleymane Dembélé, a spokesperson for the Malian armed forces, announced on national television that troops had “neutralized” 80 of the attackers. He provided no details on military casualties.

Images of hostages taken by JNIM in the attacks, Indian and Chinese nationals, today appeared on social media.

Mali, a landlocked country in the Sahel region, has for more than a decade struggled with an insurgency by jihadist groups linked to both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

In recent weeks, extremist attacks have surged in both Mali and neighboring Burkina Faso, where JNIM has consolidated a significant territorial foothold. There is now a constellation of jihadist groups operating successfully from west Africa, through the Sahel, all the way to the east coast and the Horn of Africa.

The planet will be fine, it’s the people who should be worried

Europe endures record-breaking heat as summer begins

Europe experienced its first major heat wave of the summer on Tuesday, with temperatures soaring across the continent. Barcelona recorded its hottest June in more than a century, while authorities in Paris closed the summit of the Eiffel Tower to visitors amid extreme heat and safety concerns.

Health advisories remained in effect across multiple countries. In France, temperatures were forecast to reach 40°C (104°F) in the capital, prompting the national weather agency, Météo-France, to place several departments under the highest red alert. More than 1,300 schools were partially or fully closed.

Visitors to the Eiffel Tower without pre-booked tickets were asked to postpone their plans, as the summit would remain shut until Thursday in the interest of public safety and comfort.

Italy’s health ministry reported that 17 of the country’s 27 major cities were experiencing heat wave conditions. In Florence, where the temperature reached 38°C (100°F) on Tuesday, parts of the historic city center suffered blackouts due to surging electricity demand. Thirteen Italian regions have banned outdoor labor during the hottest hours of the day.

Portugal also recorded extraordinary temperatures. On Monday night, the national weather service confirmed that the highest-ever June temperature on mainland Portuguese territory—46.6°C (115°F)—had been recorded on 29 June in the town of Mora, west of Lisbon.

Firefighters in Türkiye battled widespread wildfires for a third consecutive day, with some 50,000 residents forced to evacuate their homes as blazes raged across drought-stricken terrain.

England, too, saw record temperatures, with Tuesday’s peak reaching 33.6°C and forecasts suggesting it could rise to 35°C. It marked the country’s hottest day of the year and the warmest June since records began in 1884.

In Spain, the Fabra Observatory in Barcelona reported an average temperature of 26°C (78°F) for June, the highest since records began in 1914. A single-day high of 37.9°C (100°F) was recorded on Monday. Although Barcelona is typically shielded from the worst heat by its coastal location and surrounding hills, rising sea temperatures in the Mediterranean are diminishing the cooling effect once provided by nearby waters. Spain’s national weather agency reported that surface temperatures around the Balearic Islands were 5 to 6 degrees Celsius above the seasonal average.

Japanese ultranationalist party growing in popularity

In a June Kyodo News poll, the ultranationalist party Sanseitō, led by Sohei Kamiya, surged to 11% support, entering double digits for the first time. This rise follows their recent victory in Tokyo’s prefectural assembly, where they captured three seats, signaling growing momentum.

The party positions itself on the far-right: its leader, Kamiya, has publicly stated that the emperor is divine, advocating for an emperor-centered political structure—a revival of pre-war ideology.

Sanseitō also embraces anti-immigration, anti-vaccine, and populist positions, appealing to previously disengaged, often affluent, voters by blending traditional values, spirituality, and nationalist sentiment.

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