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What you need to know

U.S. and Iran explore diplomatic reset in Oslo

The United States and Iran are reportedly engaged in preliminary indirect discussions to resume nuclear negotiations, with a potential first round of renewed talks expected as early as next week in Oslo, Norway. The framework under consideration would revive indirect diplomatic engagement between Washington and Tehran, possibly with the involvement of European mediators or the Norwegian government.

The agenda is believed to include measures to freeze certain aspects of Iran’s nuclear program, renew oversight by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and secure limited sanctions relief or humanitarian concessions. The initiative follows recent quiet diplomacy involving Oman, Qatar, and Switzerland.

While the composition of the U.S. negotiating team has not been disclosed, the outreach reflects the administration’s stated aim to avoid further escalation in the region. Iranian officials have not confirmed Oslo as the venue but have consistently signaled openness to dialogue on key aspects of their nuclear program, so long as they are not required to give up domestic uranium enrichment.

The talks are expected to draw domestic scrutiny in both countries. In the U.S., key congressional Republicans and officials aligned with President Donald Trump have indicated they would oppose any arrangement perceived to ease pressure on Tehran. In Iran, hardline factions remain wary of Western motives and will resist concessions.

They key sticking point remains Iran’s demand to enrich its own uranium, which the U.S. is refusing to consider, and is an Israeli red line.

America First

Trade deal with a catch … new tariffs on Vietnamese imports with Chinese content

President Donald Trump announced a new bilateral trade agreement with Vietnam on 2 July 2025 that imposes a 20 percent tariff on all Vietnamese imports entering the U.S.

The accord includes a punitive clause: if a Vietnamese-exported product contains components, materials, or subassemblies sourced from China, the tariff rises automatically to 40 percent.

The two-tiered structure is intended to discourage transshipment, a practice in which Chinese firms route goods through third countries such as Vietnam to circumvent existing U.S. tariffs on Chinese-origin products.

Under the terms of the deal, Vietnamese exporters will be required to provide more rigorous declarations of sourcing and origin, with stepped-up enforcement by U.S. customs through expanded audits and digital supply-chain tracking.

The announcement, delivered during a press briefing in Washington, was presented as part of the administration’s broader “America First Trade Integrity” campaign. Trump stated that the deal would reward “true friend-shoring” while penalizing countries “doing Beijing’s dirty work.”

The agreement has already reverberated across regional supply chains. Vietnamese manufacturers are heavily dependent on intermediate Chinese inputs, especially in electronics, textiles, and steel, and will be compelled to reconfigure sourcing strategies or risk paying a much higher price to access the U.S. market.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

U.S. arms freeze stirs backlash as Russia intensifies attacks

Over the past 24 hours, the Russia–Ukraine war has escalated across several fronts. Russian forces continued their offensive near Pokrovsk in Donetsk oblast, applying pressure on Ukrainian positions with concentrated artillery and infantry assaults. In the north, operations in Sumy oblast persisted, with Russian troops reoccupying several border villages, while cross-border skirmishes continued in Russia’s Kursk region.

Ukrainian forces expanded their long-range drone campaign, launching UJ-26 “Bober” loitering munitions deep into Russian territory. Strikes in Crimea reportedly destroyed a Pantsir-S1 air-defense system, radar installations, and a Su-30 fighter jet. A separate drone attack on an industrial facility in Izhevsk (over 1,000 km inside Russia) killed at least three people and wounded dozens.

Meanwhile, Russian aerial bombardments remained unrelenting. More than 114 Shahed-type drones and several missiles were launched at targets across Ukraine, striking residential buildings, hospitals, farms, and postal facilities. At least two civilians were killed and 33 injured in these overnight attacks, with Kharkiv, Kherson, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts among the worst hit.

Amid these developments, a political row is brewing in Washington, D.C., following reports yesterday that the U.S. Department of Defense had suspended several shipments of munitions to Ukraine due to concerns over diminishing domestic stockpiles. Elbridge Colby, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, played a central role in the decision to pause deliveries of key weaponry, including air-defense interceptors, precision-guided missiles such as Patriots and Hellfires, GMLRS rockets, Stinger systems, and 155 mm artillery rounds.

The pause followed a strategic review prompted by Colby's concerns about the depletion of U.S. stockpiles and the imperative to maintain readiness for potential conflicts with major powers, particularly China. The decision was made with limited interagency consultation and reportedly caught many within the U.S. government by surprise, including congressional leaders, State Department officials, and foreign allies.

Congressional leaders from both parties expressed alarm, warning that halting arms deliveries amid Russia’s summer offensive could undermine frontline defenses and embolden Moscow. “We essentially don’t have a national security advisor,” said Representative Michael McCaul, a Republican from Texas. “I’m not even sure Rubio was consulted on this one … There’s internal division in the White House.”

Tammy Bruce, spokeswoman for the U.S. Department of State, said the United States had not halted all weapons deliveries to Ukraine and described the Pentagon’s announcement as “one situation.”

Sweden warns of unprecedented maritime interference in the Baltic

The Swedish Maritime Administration has issued what may be its most extensive interference warning to date, signaling a significant escalation in the disruption of maritime navigation systems in the Baltic Sea. For the first time, authorities reported that even shipborne radar systems are experiencing interference, in addition to the now-familiar disruptions affecting GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite Systems), AIS (Automatic Identification System), and DGPS (Differential GPS).

The development marks a troubling milestone. Radar remains the most essential navigational aid aboard ships, particularly in poor visibility or when satellite-based systems fail. Unlike GNSS or AIS, which depend on external signals and can be spoofed or jammed, radar operates independently and is typically considered a robust, self-contained system. That it is now being disrupted suggests the presence of advanced electronic warfare capabilities or an unusually dense jamming environment in the region.

While Swedish authorities did not attribute responsibility, the pattern of disruption aligns with a broader trend of increasingly sophisticated Russian interference observed across the Baltic and eastern Nordic maritime zones since early 2023. These disturbances have already led vessels to report false positions, experience total signal loss, or suffer degraded situational awareness—raising serious concerns about maritime safety, the risk of collisions, and the reliability of key shipping corridors.

The warning underscores the growing vulnerability of maritime infrastructure to electronic attack and may prompt civilian shipping operators and naval forces alike to reassess contingency protocols, including radar redundancy, manual navigation, and visual piloting.

It also illustrates the strategic importance of non-kinetic forms of warfare in the Baltic and across Europe, where Russia appears to be testing the boundaries of peacetime disruption without crossing into open military confrontation.

Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies

JNIM threatens blockade of Kayes and Nioro following clashes with Malian forces

Following intense fighting between the Malian armed forces (FAMa) and the jihadist group Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) on 1 July, senior jihadist commander Mahmud Barry issued a retaliatory threat against the cities of Kayes and Nioro du Sahel. In a voice recording distributed through local channels and intercepted by regional monitoring groups, Barry, a top figure in JNIM’s leadership in Mali, announced that both cities would be placed under siege. He accused the civilian populations of siding with FAMa during the recent clashes, despite repeated warnings to remain neutral.

Barry alleged that residents of Kayes and Nioro had provided logistical and tactical support to Malian forces during Monday’s engagement, thereby rendering themselves, in the view of JNIM, legitimate targets. He declared that the group would impose a full blockade, severing both cities from external supplies and movement, describing the action as collective punishment for defying JNIM’s instructions.

The threat signals a possible escalation of violence in southwestern Mali, a region long regarded as more stable than the jihadist-plagued central and northern areas. A siege of Kayes (an important commercial center near the Senegalese border) would mark a significant expansion of JNIM’s operational reach, with potential consequences for cross-border trade and humanitarian relief. Officials in the Malian capital, Bamako, have yet to comment publicly on Barry’s statement, though military sources indicated that reinforcements are being deployed in anticipation of further fighting.

Birth pangs in the birth place of civilization

Israel weighs another ceasefire proposal as Hamas reviews terms

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday pledged to dismantle Hamas entirely, even as the Palestinian militant group confirmed it was reviewing a new ceasefire proposal advanced by international mediators.

Netanyahu has yet to comment on President Donald Trump’s assertion (on 1 July) that Israel had endorsed a 60-day pause in military operations in Gaza. However, in remarks delivered ahead of his scheduled visit to Washington on Monday, he vowed to “destroy Hamas down to their very foundation.”

Hamas stated it was “conducting national consultations” on the latest terms, which were mediated by Qatar and Egypt.

The proposal under review calls for a 60-day truce, phased exchanges of Israeli hostages for Palestinian detainees, and a substantial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

Although described as “final” by U.S. officials, Hamas has insisted on a full Israeli withdrawal before any agreement can be reached.

Jonathan Conricus, a former spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces, posted on X that “it looks like Hamas is being handed a victory.” According to what he described as leaked terms, during the truce Hamas would release 10 live hostages and 18 bodies, while the Israeli military would withdraw from Gaza, Hamas would remain in power, and international guarantees would be extended to prevent renewed fighting. Israel, under the deal, would begin delivering humanitarian aid through United Nations channels and release prisoners classified by Israel as terrorists. Negotiations toward a permanent settlement would then begin. “No total victory, no dismantling of Hamas, no returning of all of the hostages (live or dead),” he wrote.

Of the 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants during the 7 October 2023 attacks, 49 remain in Gaza, including 27 whom the Israeli military believes are deceased.

Israeli media reported that two new armed groups affiliated with Fatah have begun operating in Gaza with the backing of the Palestinian Authority. Led by Yasser Khanidek and Rami Khalas, these groups are said to coordinate with Israeli forces and receive salaries from the Palestinian Authority.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. Summer temperatures have exceeded 30 °C (86 °F), worsening conditions in overcrowded displacement camps and temporary shelters. With only 40 percent of water facilities operational, shortages are severe and the risk of waterborne disease remains high.

The Hamas-run civil defense agency reported that at least 47 people were killed by Israeli strikes on Wednesday. Among the dead was Marwan al-Sultan, the director of the Indonesian Hospital in northern Gaza.

Lebanon weighs U.S. proposal on border tensions and Hezbollah disarmament

Lebanon is still reviewing a U.S. proposal aimed at easing tensions along its southern border and addressing the disarmament of Hezbollah, with a response expected ahead of U.S. Special Envoy Thomas Barrack’s planned visit to Beirut next Monday, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri met with a Hezbollah delegation on Tuesday evening to coordinate a unified Lebanese response. Berri and Hezbollah are still reviewing certain points before the group communicates its final position to the government. Discussions within Lebanese political circles are ongoing.

The prospects for Hezbollah disarmament, however, remain poor. Lebanon has still not been able to follow through on its agreement to disarm the Palestinian factions inside its territory.

In May 2025, the Lebanese government reached agreement with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to begin the disarmament of Palestinian factions in Lebanon. The plan, approved by a joint Lebanese–Palestinian committee on 23 May, called for the process to start in mid-June, focusing initially on refugee camps in and around Beirut, including Shatila, Burj al-Barajneh, and Mar Elias. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun confirmed the timetable shortly thereafter, stating that the disarmament would proceed in coordination with the Palestinian Authority. However, no progress on this process has been made so far, and June is already over.

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