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Happy 4th of July! The Big Beautiful Bill passes through Congress… the implications for U.S., domestically and internationally, will be huge. Read on for all that’s geopolitically important today… |
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Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Big beautiful bill becomes law amid tight deadlines
In a dramatic vote yesterday, President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” secured final approval through Congress. The legislation enacts permanent extensions of the 2017 tax cuts, eliminates taxes on tips and overtime (up to a limit), lifts the cap on state and local tax deductions, and establishes so‑called “Trump accounts” aimed at savers. It also increases spending on defence and border security, while imposing stricter eligibility rules and work requirements on Medicaid and SNAP.
The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that the bill will add approximately $3.3 trillion to the U.S. debt over the coming decade, raising concerns that millions could lose health coverage.
In response, the Senate parliamentarian struck down some Medicaid-related provisions for breaching budget rules.
The legislation still trims Medicare unless Congress amends it.
President Trump has energetically promoted the bill. While proponents argue the measures will promote fiscal discipline and energy independence, opponents contend the legislation disproportionately benefits the wealthy and undermines support for low-income households.
The law permanently extends the 2017 Trump-era tax cuts, reducing rates for individuals and corporations.
Analysts estimate the legislation will add between $2.4 trillion and $3.7 trillion to the national debt over ten years, with the Congressional Budget Office issuing a central estimate of $3.3 trillion. Credit-rating agencies, including Moody’s, have warned that the package could trigger negative pressure on U.S. creditworthiness, especially if paired with rising interest rates.
The law creates “Trump accounts”, tax-advantaged savings accounts with reduced capital gains liabilities, aimed at promoting investment and personal saving. Critics argue that such accounts will favor higher-income earners with the liquidity to take advantage of them, while offering limited benefit to poorer households. The accounts are expected to alter capital inflows, with some forecasting shifts in household investment behavior.
The law tightens eligibility for Medicaid and SNAP (food stamps) by introducing work requirements and narrower qualification thresholds. Though these provisions are likely to reduce federal expenditures on welfare, the CBO estimates several million Americans may lose access to coverage or benefits. Additionally, the bill introduces statutory triggers that cut Medicare outlays in 2026 unless Congress passes new funding legislation, a move some have warned could undermine care for the elderly.
The legislation includes a controversial provision dubbed the “revenge tax,” which imposes a levy on the U.S.-based holdings of foreign entities from countries deemed to impose unfair barriers to U.S. investment. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has expressed concern over this clause, warning that it could provoke retaliatory measures and disrupt global capital flows. While the White House insists it is a tool for leveling the playing field, business lobbies argue it may violate international trade norms and invite WTO challenges.
The bill substantially boosts funding for domestic fossil fuel production and border enforcement, particularly in southern border states. New funds have been allocated for natural gas infrastructure, refinery expansions, and drilling incentives. The administration claims this will enhance energy independence, though environmental groups argue it will delay the transition to renewables. On immigration, expanded funding enables more personnel and surveillance systems, aligning with President Donald Trump’s hardline border policies.
The bill’s size and its domestic tax-and-spend profile could complicate U.S. diplomatic efforts abroad, particularly on climate finance, global trade, and debt negotiations.
The expected surge in U.S. borrowing may place upward pressure on global interest rates and crowd out emerging-market credit.
Moreover, allies may view the legislation as a signal that U.S. fiscal priorities are turning inward, potentially weakening Washington’s credibility in multilateral economic forums.
The Big Beautiful Bill represents a sweeping realignment of U.S. fiscal policy, redistributing tax burdens, curtailing entitlements, and boosting defense and energy spending.
Whether it delivers economic growth or accelerates fiscal strain remains to be seen, but its consequences will be felt across households in the U.S., and international markets for years to come.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side
Russia intensifies assaults as North Korea prepares troop surge
The Russia–Ukraine war has entered a period of heightened escalation across several fronts. Russian forces have continued their offensive near Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region, reportedly severing key supply routes and mounting repeated attacks using small infantry units, drones, and light vehicles. In the Sumy region, Ukrainian forces appear to have stabilized the frontline and recaptured at least one settlement north of Sumy city. Across the border, Russia maintains a heavy military presence near Kursk, with more than 60,000 troops positioned close to Ukrainian territory.
Ukraine conducted long-range drone strikes deep inside Russia, including an attack on a weapons facility in Sergiyev Posad, near Moscow, which inflicted significant damage and left at least one person injured.
In retaliation, Russia launched its largest aerial barrage on Kyiv since the war began, deploying more than 550 drones and 11 missiles. The assault injured at least 23 people and caused widespread destruction across six districts of the capital, including damage to the Polish embassy. Additional Russian strikes across Ukraine killed three civilians and wounded 34 others, with Odesa among the hardest-hit areas.
This comes as the U.S. suspends certain critical munitions shipments, and White House Envoy Steve Witkoff calls for a lifting of restrictions on Russian oil sales.
North Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy an additional 25,000 to 30,000 troops to assist Russia, a move that would significantly expand Pyongyang’s involvement in the conflict.
This would nearly triple the estimated 11,000 to 14,000 North Korean soldiers already operating in areas such as Kursk, where they have been supporting defensive operations.
Thousands of North Korean personnel have reportedly been killed, with casualty estimates reaching as high as 4,000.
The new deployment is expected to take place in the coming months and may include additional military and support personnel, such as construction and demining teams.
If implemented, it would represent one of the largest foreign troop commitments to Russia’s war effort and mark a significant deepening of North Korea’s involvement.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaja Kallas, during their meeting on Wednesday in Brussels that Beijing “cannot afford” a Russian defeat in Ukraine.
He explained that such an outcome would prompt the U.S. to shift its full strategic focus toward China. Wang rejected accusations that China is materially supporting Russia, arguing that if it were, the war would have ended long ago.
President Donald Trump spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, stating after the call: “We also talked about the war with Ukraine, and I’m not happy about that. I didn’t make any progress with him today at all.”
African Tinderbox
Instability from Sahel to Horn of Africa amid state fragility, Russian interference, & Islamist insurgencies
Talha al‑Libi expands JNIM operations into Senegalese frontier
Talha al‑Libi, known as Abu Hind, has reportedly been appointed by Al Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nasr al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM) to oversee a strategic corridor of territory spanning Mali, Mauritania, and Senegal. Abu Hind, a seasoned militant of Mauritanian descent, has long held a senior position within the Timbuktu emirate.
Abd al‑Rahman Talha al‑Libi, often referred to by his nom de guerre Talha al‑Libi or Abu Hind, was born in the 1980s to a Mauritanian father and a Malian mother from Timbuktu.
His family fled to Libya during the Tuareg rebellion of the 1990s, where he spent his youth.
In 2006, he joined the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat in Algeria, which soon rebranded as Al‑Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb.
He served under Abou Zeid in the Katiba Tarik ibn Zayed and took part in prominent operations, including the Tourine ambush in 2008. During the 2012 takeover of Timbuktu by jihadist forces, Talha headed the city’s Islamic police until January 2013. Following the death of Abdallah al‑Chinguetti in early 2013, he was named emir of Katiba al‑Furqan, a regional unit of Al‑Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. In this role, he cultivated alliances with Arab and Tuareg clans, particularly the Awlad Ich and Awlad Idriss, across the wider Timbuktu region.
This shift signals rising instability across the tri-border zone. JNIM has already issued warnings to Senegal against conducting joint patrols with the Malian armed forces.
Senegalese forces could soon find themselves facing a new wave of jihadist attacks.
Extensive support networks are already active in Senegal. Previously, attacks normally originated from Malian territory, but the likelihood of operations being launched directly from Senegalese soil is growing. It now appears increasingly likely that JNIM will activate its dormant cells within Senegal in the coming months.
The Middle East
Birth pangs in the birth place of civilization
Hamas weighs U.S. ceasefire proposal as violence rages on
Hamas is weighing a U.S.-backed proposal for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, while continuing to demand firm assurances that any truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities and a full Israeli withdrawal. The group’s leadership has met in Istanbul and other locations, consulting with Palestinian factions and signaling an intention to issue a formal response within 24 hours.
Though it has expressed openness “in principle,” Hamas insists that it will not agree to any deal that fails to guarantee a comprehensive resolution of the conflict.
It’s clear that Israel does not want a comprehensive end to the conflict while Hamas persists in Gaza.
President Donald Trump has announced that Israel has agreed to the core terms of the proposal, which include a partial withdrawal, a surge in humanitarian assistance, and the framework for ending the war. He urged Hamas to accept the deal swiftly, warning that refusal would deepen the humanitarian crisis. Israel, however, has yet to formally confirm its acceptance.
Despite the diplomatic flurry, hostilities persist. Israeli airstrikes have continued across Gaza, killing dozens of Palestinians in recent days, while Hamas has fired two rockets into Israel over the past day.
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S. are working to secure guarantees that any truce will lead to substantive peace talks. Hamas has stated that it will provide a definitive answer only after internal consultations are complete, a decision expected imminently.
Of the 251 hostages seized by Palestinian militants during the 7 October 2023 attacks, 49 remain in Gaza, including 27 whom the Israeli military believes are deceased.
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What happened today:
1054 – Great Schism begins between the Roman Catholic and Eastern Orthodox churches. 1187 – Saladin defeats Crusaders at the Battle of Hattin, leading to the fall of Jerusalem. 1776 – United States declares independence from Britain with adoption of the Declaration of Independence. 1946 – Philippines gains full independence from the United States. 2005 – NASA’s Deep Impact mission strikes a comet to study its composition. 2023 – Israel and Hezbollah exchange cross-border fire.
