What you need to know

Hezbollah refuses to disarm as U.S. envoy pushes holistic peace plan

In a speech delivered on Sunday to mark the Shiite holy day of Ashura, Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem declared that the group would neither surrender nor disarm in the face of Israeli threats, nor under pressure from the U.S. or rival Lebanese factions.

He stated that only after Israel withdraws from the disputed border areas, Lebanese prisoners are released, and post-war reconstruction begins, would Hezbollah consider discussing its arsenal. Qassem expressed surprise at the call for the Iran-backed group to relinquish its rocket arsenal, describing it as Hezbollah’s principal source of deterrence. Although Hezbollah’s capabilities have shown zero deterrent capability since October 2023.

Lebanese leaders who assumed office following the recent conflict with Israel have repeatedly pledged to reassert the state's monopoly on the use of force, while urging Israel to abide by the terms of a ceasefire agreement brokered in November.

Qassem’s remarks coincided with the arrival in Beirut of Tom Barrack, the U.S. special envoy for Syria and ambassador to Türkiye, who is pressing Lebanese officials to initiate normalization talks with Israel by joining the Abraham Accords. Lebanese authorities are expected to respond shortly to Barrack’s proposal, which includes a request that Hezbollah be disarmed by the end of the year.

Central to his plan is the reassertion of a state monopoly on arms, with a timeline demanding that Lebanese authorities begin disarming non-state actors such as Hezbollah within a week and show measurable progress within six months, or risk losing international support, including backing from the Quintet Committee (the U.S., France, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Egypt).

His six-page proposal outlines a phased disarmament process tied to Israel’s withdrawal from disputed territories in southern Lebanon, with each stage matched by the deployment of the Lebanese Armed Forces and monitored by international observers.

Barrack’s plan also links disarmament to broader economic reforms, including restructuring Lebanon’s banking sector, limiting Hezbollah’s parallel economic networks, and cracking down on systemic corruption.

A U.N.-brokered prisoner exchange, the cessation of Israeli strikes, and the release of reconstruction funds are being offered as incentives.

A key element of the agenda is Lebanon’s potential accession to the Abraham Accords, joining other Arab states in normalizing relations with Israel.

Barrack has also positioned Türkiye as a central player in this diplomatic effort, citing recent U.S.–Turkish coordination on Syria and normalization tracks as a model for broader regional engagement. The initiative reflects a high-stakes push to stabilize Lebanon by leveraging diplomacy, security guarantees, and economic incentives within a compressed timeframe.

Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray

Dutch tighten asylum laws

The lower house of the Dutch parliament has enacted the most stringent asylum legislation in the country's history, curtailing the rights of those seeking refuge.

Under the new measures, temporary residence permits will be reduced from five years to three, and permanent residency will be abolished, requiring refugees to reapply every few years.

An amendment introduced late in the process introduces criminal penalties for individuals or organizations (including NGOs) that aid undocumented migrants, effectively outlawing certain acts of humanitarian assistance.

The legislation narrowly passed in the lower house on Thursday and now moves to the upper house after the summer recess, where its fate remains uncertain amid opposition from the Christian Democrats and legal concerns raised by municipalities and refugee advocacy groups. There is no guarantee that the legislation will pass the upper house, although it appears to enjoy strong popular support within The Netherlands.

Birth pangs in the birth place of civilization

Israeli prime minister in Washington

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has arrived at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland and is scheduled to meet President Donald Trump on Monday. The agenda is expected to focus primarily on Iran’s nuclear program and a possible partial ceasefire and hostage agreement in Gaza. Trump, who has taken a direct role in the negotiations, has voiced optimism that a release of captives could take place within days.

Israel has reportedly endorsed a U.S.-backed proposal for a 60-day cessation of hostilities. Under the terms being discussed, Hamas would release ten living hostages along with the remains of eighteen others in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and expanded humanitarian access. The plan also calls for Israel to reposition its forces to a buffer zone along Gaza’s borders and to allow increased access for international aid organizations.

Hamas has responded favorably in principle but continues to demand firmer guarantees, including a defined timetable for Israeli withdrawal and assurances that the ceasefire would transition into a permanent end to the conflict. Indirect talks in Doha have resumed, though the first session concluded without tangible progress.

Despite the diplomatic overtures, fighting has persisted. Israeli airstrikes have reportedly killed dozens in Gaza, and regional tensions remain elevated, particularly following missile launches from Yemen. An estimated 50 hostages remain in Gaza, with around 20 believed to be alive. Their fate remains a focal point of the ongoing talks. The coming days may prove decisive as negotiators attempt to reconcile political pressures, security calculations, and humanitarian concerns.

Herzi Halevi, chief of staff of the Israel Defense Forces, stated that the military remains committed to the dismantling of Hamas but acknowledged that this is a critical juncture to finalize a hostage agreement. While continuing to exert pressure on the group, the IDF is also making contingency plans for a potential withdrawal under a negotiated ceasefire.

Houthi attacks resume in the Red Sea

Yemen’s Houthi movement on Sunday resumed maritime assaults in the Red Sea, targeting a Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker with a missile. The vessel, reportedly en route to India, caught fire after being struck off the coast of Hodeidah. Its crew issued a distress signal and was safely evacuated with assistance from international naval forces operating in the region. This marks the first Houthi attack in the Red Sea since President Donald Trump announced on 6 May that the group had agreed to halt its operations, following a nearly two-month U.S. air campaign that targeted Houthi military infrastructure across northern Yemen. The renewed strike casts doubt on the durability of the informal ceasefire and signals a possible recalibration of the Houthis’ regional posture.

The maritime incident was not the only provocation that day. Houthi forces also launched a missile toward southern Israel, which was intercepted by the country’s air-defense system before it could cause damage. The launch fits a familiar pattern of symbolic long-range attacks by the group, aimed at expressing solidarity with Hamas and reinforcing its position within the Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance.” Although the interception prevented casualties, it highlights the Houthis’ continued determination to shape the wider regional conflict, especially as negotiations between Israel and Hamas over a potential ceasefire remain underway.

Taken together, the two attacks suggest that the Houthis may be probing the limits of U.S. deterrence and testing regional patience. The strike on commercial shipping also threatens to revive concerns about the security of maritime trade routes, particularly through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, a strategic chokepoint through which nearly 10 percent of global trade passes. U.S. officials have yet to respond publicly, but any sustained escalation could prompt renewed military operations or expanded naval deployments to safeguard freedom of navigation.

It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone needs to pick a side

Japan to transfer warships to the Philippines

Japan has agreed to transfer all six of its decommissioned Abukuma-class destroyer escorts to the Philippine Navy, marking a notable deepening of defense ties between the two U.S. allies.

The decision, finalized during a meeting between Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, represents the first time Japan has exported a major naval platform.

The Abukuma-class vessels, built between 1989 and 1993, are designed for anti-submarine and surface warfare, each displacing more than 2,000 tons and operated by a crew of approximately 120.

The agreement forms part of a broader strategy by Tokyo and Manila to counter China’s growing maritime assertiveness, particularly in contested areas of the South and East China Seas.

Japan has already supplied the Philippines with maritime patrol aircraft, coastguard vessels, and radar systems.

Both countries recently concluded a reciprocal access agreement allowing joint training exercises and humanitarian operations.

Under Japan’s revised arms export guidelines, the destroyers will be transferred through a joint development framework, including tailored upgrades to meet Philippine requirements.

The ships are expected to enter service by 2027, significantly enhancing the Philippines’ naval capabilities and strengthening its deterrent posture in the evolving security landscape of the Indo-Pacific.

America First

The United States and Pakistan are nearing the conclusion of a sweeping trade agreement that President Donald Trump is expected to unveil in the coming days.

The deal is set to eliminate tariffs on key exports, establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrency cooperation, open access to Pakistan’s rare earth mineral reserves, and significantly expand Pakistani textile exports to the U.S.

Central to the negotiations is a looming tariff deadline: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that countries failing to secure bilateral agreements by 1 August will face a return to the steep tariff rates imposed on 2 April, which for Pakistan could mean duties of up to 29 percent on critical exports.

In effect, President Trump has extended a temporary reprieve (originally set to expire on 9 July) by three additional weeks. Pakistani officials, led by Commerce Secretary Jawad Paal and Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb, have responded with urgency, securing reciprocal tariff arrangements and proposing additional energy and mining-sector collaboration.

Islamabad is offering preferential access to its rare earth reserves, including copper and antimony, and inviting U.S. investment in large-scale projects such as Reko Diq.

The agreement also features an ambitious digital component: Pakistan intends to allocate 2,000 megawatts of electricity for bitcoin mining, establish a national crypto reserve, and position itself as a regional hub for blockchain innovation.

In a symbolic gesture, Pakistan has nominated President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, part of a broader diplomatic campaign to anchor itself within Washington’s evolving geopolitical architecture.

If finalized, the deal would not only avert a tariff cliff for Pakistani exports but also mark a strategic deepening of bilateral ties across trade, energy, and emerging technologies.

Center of Gravity sign up link: https://www.namea-group.com/the-daily-brief