As Russia (again) launches its largest aerial strike on Ukraine, and attempts to push forward on the ground, the U.S. Senate introduces a gigantic Russian sanctions bill, which already has widespread bipartisan support. The bill still has to get through Congress and to the President’s desk, but it’s undeniable that U.S. pressure on Russia is now increasing. |
Center of Gravity
What you need to know
Russia unleashes largest aerial barrage of the war
Russia has carried out the most extensive air assault on Ukraine since the start of the war, launching 728 suicide drones and 13 missiles in a single night. The offensive focused heavily on western Ukraine, with the city of Lutsk (an important logistics hub near the borders with Poland and Belarus) bearing the brunt of the attack. Additional strikes hit ten other regions, including Kyiv and Ternopil.
Ukraine’s air defenses responded by shooting down a large number of drones and intercepting several missiles. A mix of drone-interceptor systems, electronic warfare tools, and domestically manufactured counter-drone technologies played a key role in mitigating the damage. The barrage appeared calibrated to overwhelm air-defense infrastructure and disrupt the flow of Western military assistance via key logistical corridors.
Ukrainian officials denounced the assault as a politically calculated provocation aimed at derailing peace efforts and testing international resolve. Poland scrambled fighter jets in response, while NATO moved to reinforce regional air defenses. The scale and orchestration of the strike have led to renewed demands for tighter sanctions on Russian energy exports and an acceleration in the delivery of Western military support to Ukraine.
Russia has also intensified its ground offensive, launching coordinated assaults on multiple fronts while targeting military infrastructure and recruitment efforts.
Russian forces have launched assaults along the northern borders, particularly in Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, where several towns have fallen or become contested zones. In eastern Ukraine, Russian troops continue their push around Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, securing over 500 square kilometers of territory in June alone. The fighting remains intense in Donetsk, especially in Toretsk and along the Novopavlivka axis, which has seen incursions toward Dnipropetrovsk.
Senate to propose fresh sanctions on Russia amid White House shift
Today, Wednesday 9 July, the U.S. Senate is set to introduce a bipartisan sanctions package aimed at tightening the economic noose around Russia’s energy sector. Spearheaded by Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal, the proposed Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025 would impose a punitive 500 percent tariff on imports of Russian oil, gas, uranium and other key commodities.
It would also authorize secondary penalties on nations, such as China, India, Türkiye and South Korea, that continue to purchase Russian energy.
The bill has already garnered broad bipartisan support in the Senate, with over 80 co-sponsors. Its advance into committee and onto the Senate floor signals congressional determination to squeeze Russia’s war-financing apparatus, though such sweeping tariffs could reverberate through global energy markets and push up fuel prices for American consumers.
Yesterday, President Donald Trump signalled growing openness to the sanctions push, describing Putin’s overtures as “meaningless” and expressing frustration over continued Russian aggression.
In a cabinet meeting, he acknowledged Putin’s “bullshit” rhetoric, reversed a temporary Pentagon pause on weapons shipments to Ukraine, and confirmed that he is “very strongly” considering giving his approval to the Senate’s sanctions proposal.
Known Unknowns: The impact of U.S. tariffs on international trade & especially the U.S. bond market. Whether the U.S. and Iran will restart nuke talks. Relations of new Syrian government with Israel, international community & ability to maintain stability inside Syria. China’s triggers for military action against Taiwan. U.S. responses to China’s ‘grey zone’ warfare in the South China Sea and north Asia. Ukraine’s ability to withstand Russia’s war of attrition. The potential for the jihadist insurgency in Africa’s Sahel region to consolidate and spread.
New Europe
Europe's center of gravity shifts east, politics moves right, hostility to migrants from the south rises, as ties with the U.S. fray
Vox sharpens its message with mass deportation pledge
Spain’s far-right party Vox has pledged to deport more than eight million people, including not only undocumented migrants but also legal residents and naturalized citizens it deems “insufficiently integrated.”
Senior party figures framed the policy as a sweeping “remigration” program designed to safeguard Spanish identity and national cohesion. Only a government led by Vox, they argue, could implement such a transformation, which they present as essential to the nation’s survival.
The proposal has provoked immediate backlash. Critics highlight that the figure exceeds the total number of foreign-born residents in Spain, raising fundamental questions about legality, feasibility, and intent.
Leaders of Spain’s mainstream center-right have distanced themselves from the plan, denouncing the rhetoric as inflammatory and incompatible with constitutional rights and European Union law.
Government officials have dismissed the proposal as xenophobic and legally impossible.
Vox’s pledge is not an isolated outburst. It reflects a broader pattern across Europe, where far-right parties are increasingly mainstreaming the language of “remigration” (until recently a fringe concept) into national campaigns.
The normalization of such rhetoric marks a decisive rightward shift in European discourse, forcing traditional parties to recalibrate or risk ceding ground. In Spain, as elsewhere, the coming electoral cycle will test the resonance of these ideas.
As of mid-2025, Vox is polling at approximately 15 percent nationally, reflecting a steady rise in support since the 2023 general election. The party now stands as Spain’s third-largest political force, with durable backing across multiple demographic groups and growing appeal among younger voters. Projections suggest it is likely to maintain or modestly expand its share of seats in parliament if current trends hold.
The next general election is scheduled for 2027. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has stated his intention to serve out the remainder of his term, and no early vote has been announced.
Still, shifting political dynamics may yet bring surprises, and Sánchez has been trying to stem the damage caused by a corruption case last week involving his associates (though he himself has not been implicated).
Trump Administration
Move fast and break things
Supreme Court clears path for Trump’s federal workforce cuts
The U.S. Supreme Court has permitted President Donald Trump to move forward with a sweeping plan to reduce the size of the federal workforce, lifting a lower-court injunction that had temporarily blocked the implementation of an executive order targeting up to 19 federal agencies.
Although the ruling does not resolve the broader legal challenge to the order, it allows the administration to begin executing layoffs while litigation proceeds. Early estimates suggest that tens of thousands of jobs may be eliminated in the near term, with some projections warning that the eventual total could reach as high as 250,000, though no official figure has been confirmed.
The administration has initially focused on dismissing probationary employees and argues that the reductions are necessary to streamline the federal government and improve efficiency.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson in a pointed dissent, warned that the decision grants the executive branch expansive authority to reshape the bureaucracy without congressional approval, potentially eroding the separation of powers. He peers disagreed with her.
Labor unions and several municipal governments have condemned the move as unconstitutional and cautioned that it could inflict long-term damage on essential public services.
While the ruling marks a political win for Trump and advances his broader agenda to restructure the federal apparatus, the constitutional implications remain unresolved and are likely to receive further scrutiny in the courts.
Cold War 2.0
It’s now the U.S. vs China, everyone else needs to pick a side
Three convicted in UK over Russia‑linked arson at Ukraine‑bound warehouse
In March 2024, a warehouse in Leyton, east London, storing Starlink satellite kits and generators destined for Ukraine, was deliberately set ablaze in an incident now confirmed as Russian-linked sabotage. The fire caused about £1 million in damage and prompted a large response from eight fire engines and sixty firefighters.
A jury at the Old Bailey found three men: Jakeem Rose, Ugnius Asmena and Nii Mensah, guilty of aggravated arson with intent to endanger life. During the blaze, Rose and Mensah ignited the warehouse while Mensah livestreamed the act and Asmena waited in a getaway car. They were tracked by CCTV, traffic cameras and phone data, which captured the attackers entering the site and later communications like Mensah’s message, “Bro, lol it’s on the news… we dun damagees.”
Two others, Dylan Earl and Jake Reeves, previously pleaded guilty.
Prosecutors established that the attack was orchestrated by the Wagner Group on behalf of Russian military intelligence, making this the first UK case to secure convictions under the National Security Act 2023 for foreign‑state terrorism.
Both men are also linked to an aborted plot targeting Mayfair businesses and the kidnapping of Russian dissident Evgeny Chichvarkin.
The court's findings suggest a deliberate, state‑linked sabotage campaign operating via proxies; in this case British nationals recruited via Telegram. The episode exemplifies the growing threat posed by hybrid operations across Europe, exploiting individuals willing to act on behalf of hostile states. Sentencing is expected later in the year.
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What happened today:
455 – Roman Emperor Avitus proclaimed in Gaul after sack of Rome. 1816 – Argentina declares independence from Spanish rule. 1877 – First Wimbledon tennis tournament begins in London. 1991 – South Africa re-admitted to the International Olympic Committee. 2002 – African Union officially launched in Durban, South Africa. 2011 – South Sudan declares independence from Sudan, becoming the world’s newest country.

